West Coast of FL Starting to Get Very Nervous

[gatorcane]

I was talking to friends in the Tampa Bay area and anxiety is beginning to escalate rapidly as models are shifting more east. This time Tampa Bay should not hope for a NE wobble

[Scorpion]

They should be. Starting to get nervous here myself. Might be not out of the realm of possibility of getting TS winds.

[gatorcane]

It looks like much of South and West FL and the panhandle will be effected. If the track continues to shift E it will be catastrophic.

[Scorpion]

Not really, as it will weaken by Eastern Cuba.

[Josephine96]

Some nerves here too from my coworkers.. I wonder how they'll feel after seeing the track shift

[caneman]

Not really, as it will weaken by Eastern Cuba.

Very warm heat content in Gom though. Even if it drops a Category or two it can easily make that up once parallel to the West coast.

[TampaFl]

Agree Kevin_Cho. Every one really needs to start to review their hurricanes plans and procedures. Even if Dennis "hugs" the West Coast it is going to get mighty rough.

Robert

[TampaFl]

Agree Kevin_Cho. Every one really needs to start to review their hurricanes plans and procedures. Even if Dennis "hugs" the West Coast it is going to get mighty rough.

Robert

[Myersgirl]

Local mets are just calling for tropical storm conditions

[stormie]

We SW and W Coast Floridians should be vigilante as this storm continues it unprecidented NW to NNW jog...and as it enters the gulf.

Why is it unprecidented? I thought that such a move would occur if the ridge weakened a bit or was weaker than thought...

[soonertwister]

The Tampa Bay area has essentially been within the possible strike cone for more than 66 consecutive hours. If people have delayed in their hurricane preparations, now is the time to start. There isn't a lot of time to waste. Many will want to evacuate if there is a chance that this is a category 4 hurricane, and you don't want to wait until 12 hours from landfall to begin to evacuate.

That means those persons have under 36 total hours to finish preparations for a hurricane.

Or you can gamble, and risk losing everything. Pay attention to your local authorities, and to the official information from NHC. And trust your gut instinct if you are a cautious person, and don't trust it if you are by nature a gambler. You don't want to roll snakeyes with a big hurricane.

[stormie]

No one I think truly expected this much of a NW turn..and i've heard conflicting reports that the ridge was both weakening and strengthening lol..so....

Yes, that is a good point. On the other hand, the west coast of Florida has pretty well been in the cone of doom the entire time, so I personally think one shouldn't be too surprised.

I am the type who thinks they should do away with the line and only use a cone...maybe a small cone and a big cone or something. People I talked to were surprised and upset when the Charley hit Punta Gorda rather than Tampa because the liiiiiiiine went to Tampa. I've had many a heated discussion about the fact that Punta Gordan was in the CONE...

Now if the storm headed due south THAT would really be unprecidented...or did a loop-de-loop even!! LOL - just kidding Yes, I've heard of Jeanne...it's my middle name!

[Myersgirl]

I understand what you are saying about the cone, but the average public just goes on what local mets tell them, here in Fort Myers, it was "you may get some Tropical Storm Warnings" rom Charlie

[stormie]

The Tampa Bay area has essentially been within the possible strike cone for more than 66 consecutive hours. If people have delayed in their hurricane preparations, now is the time to start. There isn't a lot of time to waste. Many will want to evacuate if there is a chance that this is a category 4 hurricane, and you don't want to wait until 12 hours from landfall to begin to evacuate.

That means those persons have under 36 total hours to finish preparations for a hurricane.

Or you can gamble, and risk losing everything. Pay attention to your local authorities, and to the official information from NHC. And trust your gut instinct if you are a cautious person, and don't trust it if you are by nature a gambler. You don't want to roll snakeyes with a big hurricane.

Yes! Yes! Can not be repeated enough! And not just for Tampa, of course...anyone similarly coned should of course take the same precautions. I'm the Paul Revere of my friends and tell them this all the time. I think they think I'm just Crying Wolf a lot of the time. Oh well, that's the better of two evils IMHO.

I'm lucky, though. My husband is out front testing our new generator. He finished preparing our semi-perm plywood "shutters" last month...I think I should log off and go thank him .

[soonertwister]

I am the type who thinks they should do away with the line and only use a cone...maybe a small cone and a big cone or something. People I talked to were surprised and upset when the Charley hit Punta Gorda rather than Tampa because the liiiiiiiine went to Tampa. I've had many a heated discussion about the fact that Punta Gordan was in the CONE...

I've thought the same thing for quite some time now, starting with Charlie last year. I believe the actual forecast track should be only available within the NHC for their personnel only as guidance.

And I think the entire cone should be colored red, with a caution on every graphic that anywhere within the cone is potentially at risk, all persons anywhere within the possible strike area should prepare as though the hurricane is coming their way.

In addition, I believe the strike probabilities should only be disseminated to emergency services personnel, and not to the public. When someone sees there's only a 14% chance of getting hit, they somehow think it won't come their way. That's like thinking that when you put one bullet in the chamber of a seven shot revolver and spin the barrel, you won't shoot yourself if you point the gun at your head and pull the trigger.

[soonertwister]

I understand what you are saying about the cone, but the average public just goes on what local mets tell them, here in Fort Myers, it was "you may get some Tropical Storm Warnings" rom Charlie

At 11 pm, they will probably get a hurricane watch for Fort Myers.

[stormie]

I definately agree, but not with the Percentages part lol...most people other than us Weather Addicts here know where to even find them so..lol..

Ah hem...that's "Weather Nerd" to you --

Yes, I agree. My issue is with what's put out by the general media. Anyone who goes to the trouble of researching percentages and spaghetti models, etc., is probably by default going to be ready for action...

[tampastorm]

Did you know the morning of charley. Punta Gorda had higher probabilites within the 65 miles then Tampa did that is a fact. I think everyone forgot that. Look at the cone not the direct line!!!

[Josephine96]

If I hear 1 more time.. "It is important to remember a hurricane is not a point".. I think I'll hit somebody lol..