Dennis Advisorys

[Brent]

Good, the NHC expects Dennis to weaken to a cat 2 by time it reaches Cuba.

Actually...they expect it to hit Cuba at 115kts, which is Category 4.

Just noticed that... YIKES!

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/2100z 19.0n 76.6w 100 kt
12hr VT 08/0600z 20.4n 78.4w 115 kt(135 mph Cat 4) Nearing Central Cuba
24hr VT 08/1800z 22.3n 80.5w 95 kt...inland near Cienfuegos, Cuba
36hr VT 09/0600z 24.2n 82.5w 100 kt 50 miles southwest of Key West, Florida
48hr VT 09/1800z 26.0n 84.0w 105 kt 135 miles west of Naples, Florida
72hr VT 10/1800z 30.0n 86.5w 105 kt 30 miles south of Fort Walton Beach, Florida(120 mph Cat 3)
96hr VT 11/1800z 35.0n 88.0w 30 kt...inland near MS/AL/TN border
120hr VT 12/1800z 38.0n 87.5w 20 kt...inland near Evansville, Indiana

[Brent]

Remember what Charley/Isiador an many more did over western Cuba. Watch it stay about the same. This thing is moving at 15 mph.

I think it'll weaken a bit... but nothing drastic. It's crossing a more mountainy and thick part of Cuba and it'll be paralleling the coast tonight meaning part of the circulation will be over land.

[canegrl04]

Once a hurricane travels this path,it should not be under estimated.Dennis could easily become cat 4 before landfall over US

[kevin]

The inching east has me on edge.

[cycloneye]

3
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI
DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN
STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN
THAT AREA.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION
SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS
SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...
CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.0N 76.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.4N 78.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.3N 80.5W 95 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.2N 82.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND

[drezee]

893
WTNT34 KNHC 072337
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...APPROACHING
CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...
VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...
CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF
CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH
OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG BOTH
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON
FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 130 MPH...210 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES CENTRAL CUBA...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SANTIAGO DE CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 80 MPH.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 77.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[Brent]

OMG!!!

[JTD]

OMG!!!

Note the 4 mb drop in just 50 minutes.

[cycloneye]

I am praying for those people in Cuba.

[Stephanie]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME???


His winds increased from 90 to 130 MPH ALREADY???

[Coredesat]

Rapid intensification, just like Charley. Holy crap. O_O

[feederband]

HOLYCRAPOLA!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats what you get when a storm hits 90 degree water.

[Brent]

25 hours ago... he BECAME a hurricane.

55 mph increase...

[Thunder44]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME???


His winds increased from 90 to 130 MPH ALREADY???

That's what the NW Carribean does for you.

[loon]

What the heck is he doing now? ERC? I know its not, but the last 20 minutes of frames looks like he is slowing...

[tzirinis]

Holy cow. I never expected this. Crazy!! I hope everyone stays safe down there and were prepared. I can't help it. I have a love hate relationship with with tropical storms even when they head towards my house. They are amazing forces of nature.

[loon]

how long has jamaica been getting racked now?

[Brent]

how long has jamaica been getting racked now?

Since Late Morning... They are getting lucky though... on the south side away from the eyewall.

[HURAKAN]

When Dennis makes landfall in Cuba, it will become the most intense hurricane to strike the island in the month of July. History in the making!