Recon Reports Dennis

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#421 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:09 pm

It appears that AF300's mission is to release dropsondes to collect atmospheric data in the GOM.

Just as I am not covering the Gulfstream dropsondes, I am going to drop coverage of the AF300 mission...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#422 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:12 pm

CRAP. I think Dennis will cross Cuba and weaken only to cat 2 before entering water again.Then hes got alot of time to strengthen again befor hitting the US.Probably as a strong cat 4 :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#423 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:18 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF300
Observation Number: 11
Time: 2307Z
Latitude: 25.0°N
Longitude: 91.1°W
Location: 297 mi SSW of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 29000 feet
Flight level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Temperature: -18°F
Dewpoint: N/A°F
Weather: Rainshowers
300mb height: 31900 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: DEW POINT NEG 51C.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#424 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:20 pm

chris_fit wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:127 mph winds flight level over the southwestern quad??? Wow thats the weakest quad. In the pressure down to 955 millibars.

:eek:



Dr Lyons just said 10 min ago recon got a 140mph reading at flight level


I believe he was talking about the 121 kt flight level wind in the vortex messages. That's 139.15 mph to be exact.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#425 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:22 pm

I beleive that the 8pm update will rise it to 125 mph.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#426 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:34 pm

Wow the eye is really looking good/defined. With dark reds/blacks all around it. It looks like a cat4 to me.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#427 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:36 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 31
Time: 23:06:20Z
Latitude: 19.3°N
Longitude: 77°W
Location: 94 mi N of Kingston, Jamaica
Minimum height at 700 mb 2689 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NW (324°) @ 107 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 10 mi SSW (198°)
Sea level pressure: 951 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 52°F at 10039 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9980 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 54°F
Eye character: OPEN SW
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented N (360°), major axis length: 23 mi, minor axis length: 18 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.03 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 121 KT E QUAD 21:04:50 Z
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#428 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:37 pm

Good lord...another 4 MB pressure drop? :eek:
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#429 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:38 pm

951 wow :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#430 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:38 pm

951 millibars this is bombing!!! :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#431 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:38 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#432 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:39 pm

4mb drop in 50 minutes.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#433 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:40 pm

New 8pm Advisory: 130mph!
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#434 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:40 pm

I knew it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#435 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:42 pm

5:30pm est
Latitude: 19°N
Longitude: 76.7°W

7:40pm est
Latitude: 19.3°N
Longitude: 77°W
0 likes   
Top
kevin

#436 Postby kevin » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:42 pm

4mb that quick? Dang....
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#437 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:44 pm

Observation Number: 32
Time:2338Z
Location: 19.3 North 77.0 West
Sea Level Pressure: n/a
Surface winds: 17 knots // 140
925 millibar height: 241 meters
925 millibar winds: 17 knots // 169
850 millibar height: 984 meters
850 millibar winds: 17 knots // 180
700 millibar height: 2662 meters
700 millibar winds: 2662 meters

eye dropsonde
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hiflyer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 564
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:24 am
Location: West Broward Florida

#438 Postby hiflyer » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:48 pm

4mb drop big wind increase and all while 25 percent of the storm is now over cuba.....ouch!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 738
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

#439 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:05 pm

hiflyer wrote:4mb drop big wind increase and all while 25 percent of the storm is now over cuba.....ouch!

I feel very very sorry for whoever lives on that Cuban peninsula that is now getting hammered.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#440 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:12 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 34
Time: 0000Z
Latitude: 18.4°N
Longitude: 74.9°W
Location: 106 mi S of Guantanamo, Cuba
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 27000 feet
Flight level wind: SW (220°) @ 36 mph
Temperature: -8°F
Dewpoint: -8°F
Weather: Unknown
D-value: 1600 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Category5Kaiju and 525 guests