models west

[Ivanhater]

seems to me we have a west trend, those models have to be recent becasue of where the storm is now

[jkt21787]

Not sure what the deal is here. The Wunderground maps show models further west than 12z, in fact 3 go right over Memphis which definitely wasn't the case a few hours ago.

However, the other model map, the white background one, shows the models at much different spots and with 18z initilization times.

I *think* its too early for the Wunderground maps to be the 00z, but not sure. Hopefully someone else can clear this up.

[goodlife]

I think they just didn't update them properly...I think they added in the 18Z runs of the GFS and the GFDL and didn't make the text change.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Those are old runs, but they showed further east than that on this afternoon. Somebody must have crossed them up with last night's tracks.

how could they be old, look at where they initialize the storm.

They're not old. They just had the old times stamped on there. I just checked the GFDL and it's back over around P'cola. 119 kts (-15 or 20% surface) and 954mb.

[Stratosphere747]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Someone posted this a few days ago, and has turned into one of my favorite maps for conditions up ahead, of course being an amateur, it may not be worth a crap...

Anyways..Does this show the High of the Florida coast and what the impending steering currents may be?

[Ivanhater]

omg, now i just refreshed it and now they are all over pensacola, except for one, what is going on??? well this is going to cause mass confusion, wait it already did

[Eyes2theSkies]

looks as if the high is trying to build back in. Curious to see how far that short wave trough makes it

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe someone with some better knowledge could help me out here, without having to start a new thread..

It looks as if the Bermuda high is what has been pushing it more one the NW track the last day or so.

It looks as if the other High off the Fla coast, if it stays in the current location would push it west, or north?


http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[wxwatcher91]

the models have shifted west some in the 00z run

they're actually all pretty consistent in landing Dennis on the Florida/Alabama border... all except for the UKMET which takes it west and lands in Louisiana

[Ivanhater]

this is the new model thread, dont get confused by the other one, those are the olds one right now

[drudd1]

This all brings back memories of basic training with all the marching and cadence...........left, right, left, right, left, left. The flip flopping has worn me out

[Steve]

>>they're actually all pretty consistent in landing Dennis on the Florida/Alabama border... all except for the UKMET which takes it west and lands in Louisiana

The majority of the models over NWFL are all part of the GFS suite or run from the data. The UKMET is it's own thing. However, that is the 12z run (from 7am Central today). We'll see the new one around midnight. I'd expect it would have to kick east a little like the ECMWF did at 12z (MS/AL line) unless it's completely out to lunch.

Steve

[tampastorm]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html. looking at this it looks like its going nnw. I know wobble, just adding to the other 100 ppl that see a wobble,lol

[Ivanhater]

haaaa, ya , people get to excited and want to stick to one model run, like earlier florida peninsula people were going crazy

[wxwatcher91]