00:00z Model Guidance

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cycloneye
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00:00z Model Guidance

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:41 pm

HURRICANE DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050708 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050708 0000 050708 1200 050709 0000 050709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 77.1W 20.7N 79.0W 22.0N 80.7W 23.4N 82.2W
BAMM 19.4N 77.1W 21.1N 79.3W 22.4N 81.0W 23.9N 82.6W
A98E 19.4N 77.1W 21.0N 79.2W 22.7N 81.0W 24.4N 82.5W
LBAR 19.4N 77.1W 21.1N 79.2W 22.9N 81.1W 24.7N 82.8W
SHIP 115KTS 120KTS 123KTS 120KTS
DSHP 115KTS 120KTS 76KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050710 0000 050711 0000 050712 0000 050713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.9N 83.5W 28.8N 86.2W 33.8N 87.8W 37.1N 84.7W
BAMM 25.5N 84.0W 29.2N 86.8W 33.1N 88.9W 35.7N 87.7W
A98E 26.6N 84.0W 30.7N 86.8W 34.8N 88.2W 37.5N 86.3W
LBAR 26.4N 84.0W 29.3N 85.8W 32.2N 87.7W 34.8N 87.1W
SHIP 118KTS 102KTS 74KTS 47KTS
DSHP 79KTS 53KTS 29KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 77.1W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 74.9W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 73.1W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 951MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM

Image

Refresh the grafic to see the 00:00z run.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:43 pm

We got a cat4!!!
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#3 Postby Eyes2theSkies » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:45 pm

wow. whats up with weather underground then?
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LilNoles2005
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Hey...

#4 Postby LilNoles2005 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:46 pm

Do these model runs have the information from tonight's Mission IV flight?
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#5 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:48 pm

That's a SIGNIFICANT east shift if the yellow 1 pans out..
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#6 Postby goodlife » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:48 pm

that looks like the old run
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Re: Hey...

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:49 pm

LilNoles2005 wrote:Do these model runs have the information from tonight's Mission IV flight?


No that information will be in for the 00z of the global models after midnight.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:49 pm

thats what i was going to say...OLD
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#9 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:49 pm

Josephine96 wrote:That's a SIGNIFICANT east shift if the yellow 1 pans out..

The yellow is the 98E, its the "crack" model.
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#10 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:50 pm

goodlife wrote:that looks like the old run


Those are still the old ones except for the GFDL. Just wait a few more minutes and the graphic will update for the other ones.

<RICKY>
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gkrangers

#11 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:50 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
goodlife wrote:that looks like the old run


Those are still the old ones except for the GFDL. Just wait a few more minutes and the graphic will update for the other ones.

<RICKY>
Yep..expect the LBAR, 98E (crack model), and BAMs to shift west towards the GFDL.
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#12 Postby ericinmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:51 pm

Yellow, green, light green... all are the worst models. Especially in this scenario. The greens BAMM's only work deep in the tropics.

The yellow is a stupid statistical model based on previous storms.

The UKMET is doing its thing still ???

The GFDL is parralleling the NHC forecast, vice versa.

That map is missing some models the weatherunderground has.
There are tons of models, not every map maps them all. And some can't be mapper like the Euro.
-Eric
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#13 Postby TS Zack » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:52 pm

Yes, these are old. Look at wunderground. The BAMM is over Mobile Bay.
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#14 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:52 pm

those are old model, wunderground has the new ones
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#15 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:53 pm

Once again re-emphasize here the reason for the west shift is the west shift in the 18z GFS since they are all associataed with each other.
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#16 Postby loon » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:55 pm

This is not the model run, cyclone just put this here for a thread to be started, he says right there to refresh when the new ones come out, as that map will be updated with the new info.
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#17 Postby goodlife » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:56 pm

How are WE supposed to refresh the graphic?
If you gave me a link to the site that has the graphic I could refresh it.
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:58 pm

Grafic updated now.A little shift to the west of the BAM Models.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#19 Postby Mattie » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:58 pm

when the graphic is updated it will appear here at the top - he is going to revise the post to include the latest graphic.
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#20 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:58 pm

It's already updated now. Models moved to the FL/AL line. BAD NEWS for all my friends on the Eastern Shore and near the beaches :(

Steve
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