Recon Reports Dennis

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricane Cheese
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 365
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)

#441 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:23 pm

From the satellite images, Dennis is starting to look a lot like Charley did before Charley struck Punta Gorda.

I don't think there's much doubt now that it will be a Cat 4 when it strikes Cuba...


The $64,000,000 question is how much will Cuba weaken it. If it's a strong Cat 2 or above when it remerges in the GOM, then it might be time to really watch out.

Remember, the SE Gulf is where Charley exploded into a monster!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#442 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:23 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 02
Time: 0015Z
Latitude: 18.0°N
Longitude: 70.3°W
Location: 51 mi SW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 22000 feet
Flight level wind: S (190°) @ 14 mph
Temperature: 7°F
Dewpoint: 3°F
Weather: Unknown
D-value: 1400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#443 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:26 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF300
Observation Number: 06
Time: 2130Z
Latitude: 25.0°N
Longitude: 89.2°W
Location: 295 mi S of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 30100 feet
Flight level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Temperature: -22°F
Dewpoint: N/A°F
Weather: Scattered Skies
300mb height: 31900 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: DEW POINT NEG 55C
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#444 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:29 pm

Hurricane Cheese wrote:From the satellite images, Dennis is starting to look a lot like Charley did before Charley struck Punta Gorda.

I don't think there's much doubt now that it will be a Cat 4 when it strikes Cuba...


The $64,000,000 question is how much will Cuba weaken it. If it's a strong Cat 2 or above when it remerges in the GOM, then it might be time to really watch out.

Remember, the SE Gulf is where Charley exploded into a monster!



If Dennis crosses Cuba where forecasted (west of the higher terrain) along with it's forward speed and UL favorable Enviro. he may not lose much strength at all. I'll be surprised if he gets below 120mph.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#445 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:29 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 35
Time: 0018Z
Latitude: 17.9°N
Longitude: 73.3°W
Location: 81 mi SW of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 29000 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (210°) @ 29 mph
Temperature: -17°F
Dewpoint: -22°F
Weather: Unknown
300mb height: 32000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: LAST REPORT


Mission IV is over. A few other planes are aloft however.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#446 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:38 pm

Someone please decode...

033
UZNT13 KNHC 080030
XXAA 57238 99194 70769 04496 99969 25401 ///// 00776 ///// /////
92412 22605 08140 85148 20002 10646 70811 12820 88999 77999
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF304 0404A DENNIS OB 33
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1947N07705W 2317 LST WND 104 MBL WND 07636
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10626 958737 WL150 07132 179 =
XXBB 57238 99194 70769 04496 00969 25401 11949 23204 22850 20002
33762 17003 44760 15603 55750 16203 66703 13405 77699 12628 88697
16050
21212 00969 ///// 11958 06132 22950 07129 33943 07137 44934 07636
55927 08141 66911 08633 77903 09143 88895 09137 99883 09139 11874
09147 22860 09643 33850 10646 44737 13130 55697 15531
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF304 0404A DENNIS OB 33
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1947N07705W 2317 LST WND 104 MBL WND 07636
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10626 958737 WL150 07132 179 =
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#447 Postby feederband » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:40 pm

drezee wrote:Someone please decode...

033
UZNT13 KNHC 080030
XXAA 57238 99194 70769 04496 99969 25401 ///// 00776 ///// /////
92412 22605 08140 85148 20002 10646 70811 12820 88999 77999
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF304 0404A DENNIS OB 33
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1947N07705W 2317 LST WND 104 MBL WND 07636
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10626 958737 WL150 07132 179 =
XXBB 57238 99194 70769 04496 00969 25401 11949 23204 22850 20002
33762 17003 44760 15603 55750 16203 66703 13405 77699 12628 88697
16050
21212 00969 ///// 11958 06132 22950 07129 33943 07137 44934 07636
55927 08141 66911 08633 77903 09143 88895 09137 99883 09139 11874
09147 22860 09643 33850 10646 44737 13130 55697 15531
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF304 0404A DENNIS OB 33
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1947N07705W 2317 LST WND 104 MBL WND 07636
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10626 958737 WL150 07132 179 =



Whats that say... :?: .is this from the ultralite... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

#448 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:16 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov then hit aircraft recon and hit the (how to read) part :wink:
Last edited by wxwatcher91 on Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#449 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:17 pm

drezee wrote:Someone please decode...

033
UZNT13 KNHC 080030
XXAA 57238 99194 70769 04496 99969 25401 ///// 00776 ///// /////
92412 22605 08140 85148 20002 10646 70811 12820 88999 77999
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF304 0404A DENNIS OB 33
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1947N07705W 2317 LST WND 104 MBL WND 07636
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10626 958737 WL150 07132 179 =
XXBB 57238 99194 70769 04496 00969 25401 11949 23204 22850 20002
33762 17003 44760 15603 55750 16203 66703 13405 77699 12628 88697
16050
21212 00969 ///// 11958 06132 22950 07129 33943 07137 44934 07636
55927 08141 66911 08633 77903 09143 88895 09137 99883 09139 11874
09147 22860 09643 33850 10646 44737 13130 55697 15531
31313 09608 82312
61616 AF304 0404A DENNIS OB 33
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1947N07705W 2317 LST WND 104 MBL WND 07636
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10626 958737 WL150 07132 179 =



Observation Number: 33
Time: 0030Z
Position: 19.4 North // 76.9 West
Sea Level Pressure: 969 millibars
surface winds: n/a
925 millibar height: 412 meters
925 millibar winds: 140 knots // 080
850 millibar height: 1148 meters
850 millibar winds: 146 knots // 105
700 millibar height: 2811 meters

Removed double decode, added 850 millibar wind direction
Sigh, added position
Last edited by clfenwi on Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#450 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:18 pm

O dear lord 146 knots at 850 millibars. That is 135 knots at the surface we got a strong cat4 my friends.

This is a boarder line cat5...The nhc needs to make a special if that data is right.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#451 Postby feederband » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:22 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#452 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:23 pm

Those poor people on that little peninsula....
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#453 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:26 pm

If that 146 knots is right. In I see no reason why not by the satellite/well defined eye. In which go's 80 percent which would around 135 knots. Would make this hurricane 150 to 155 mph right now. Thats if that was not a screw up.

O dear god those poor people :cry:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#454 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:27 pm

Any pros, is Matt correct?
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#455 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:33 pm

80% of 140kts is about 112.

Probably 115-120kts at the surface.

So 135-140mph.

I like to be conservative with intensity, and with the northern eyewall about to hit 3000-5000ft mountains in that peninsula...
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#456 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:35 pm

No its not maybe at the lowest 125 knots.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#457 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:36 pm

850 mb is 10,000 feet, right?

Derek? AFM?

Either way... it's a Cat 4. Poor Cuba. :(
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
NC George
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:44 am
Location: Washington, NC, USA

#458 Postby NC George » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:39 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:If Dennis crosses Cuba where forecasted (west of the higher terrain) along with it's forward speed and UL favorable Enviro. he may not lose much strength at all. I'll be surprised if he gets below 120mph.


Yes, if you look at a relief map of Cuba, there seems to be a gap in the range right where the predicted path is.
0 likes   
Top
seahawkjd
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:12 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:
Contact seahawkjd

#459 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:39 pm

If simple math applies to this 10 percent of 146 is 14.6. 20 percent rounded would be 30. 146 - 30 = 116.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#460 Postby Normandy » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:40 pm

Dennis is torturing that tip, hes jogging west right alongside it :(
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wwizard and 619 guests