July 8 00Z NAM coming in....

[Steve]

NAM's not hitting the Big Bend. It's hitting between Destin and Panama City Beach. I guess that's alot more reasonable than the North Carolina hit it had yesterday .

Steve

[LilNoles2005]

I don't think you're too familiar with the recent development along the coast of the big bend, particularly Wakulla County. We're booming down here and this would really, really create a lot of havoc in this area.

How about the coastline south of Tallahassee? The shoreline from Cedar Key northward to Tallahassee just looked barren to me.

Wakulla Co. is due south of Leon County (Tallahassee). Not barren now, and the entire county is growing at a extremely fast pace.

[PurdueWx80]

00z NAM has landfall very near Pensacola; however, something is screwy - see the appendage of lower surface pressures to the west of the storm, over LA? It's almost like it's showing some sort of development there from the upper low that it has forecast over TX.



Nonetheless, it does show a stronger ridge to the north and east of the storm on the 00z run (vs. the 12z). This is unrelated to what I've mentioned above, but if the upper low is close enough to the storm, there will be enough shear to weaken the storm considerably. Chances are, any upper low that does pinch off from the trough currently sitting over TX will likely get out of the way!

[mahicks]

I don't think you're too familiar with the recent development along the coast of the big bend, particularly Wakulla County. We're booming down here and this would really, really create a lot of havoc in this area.

How about the coastline south of Tallahassee? The shoreline from Cedar Key northward to Tallahassee just looked barren to me.

Growing up around Foley, Gulf Shores, Perdido, Daphne, AL...etc....All of them were as sparsley populated as the your so called big bend area is now...

Have you seen the growth boom in those areas lately? The demographics are mind bogling, same thing for Wakulla county, Areas around Cedar Key, Perry, etc..

Anyways, enough off topic, I understand what your saying, and I would have to agree, just try not to be so cold about it, remember some of us folks on here live where your wishing it to Besides that, remember that Tallahassee IS the state capitol, thats got to account for something ???

[Agua]

Aren't canes landfalling in the Big Bend area also susceptible to weakening due to upwelling with the shallow shelf? Further, aren't storms traveling north along the pennisula susceptible to weakening due to the disruption on the east side of it's access to water? Not that it would necessarily happen, but I think that has been the post hoc analysis of the reason for storms weakening following that track.

[gkrangers]

I don't think you're too familiar with the recent development along the coast of the big bend, particularly Wakulla County. We're booming down here and this would really, really create a lot of havoc in this area.

How about the coastline south of Tallahassee? The shoreline from Cedar Key northward to Tallahassee just looked barren to me.

Growing up around Foley, Gulf Shores, Perdido, Daphne, AL...etc....All of them were as sparsley populated as the your so called big bend area is now...

Have you seen the growth boom in those areas lately? The demographics are mind bogling, same thing for Wakulla county, Areas around Cedar Key, Perry, etc..

Anyways, enough off topic, I understand what your saying, and I would have to agree, just try not to be so cold about it, remember some of us folks on here live where your wishing it to Besides that, remember that Tallahassee IS the state capitol, thats got to account for something ???

Eh...I had to fly between Daytona Beach and Tallahassee twice..two round trips, which is 4 flights. 2+ hours each flight. The same boring ass flight, over swamp and farms....EFF TLH! Also the weather stunk, rain and low clouds, so it was interesting to get there and get out without busting too many regulations...

[LilNoles2005]

Aren't canes landfalling in the Big Bend area also susceptible to weakening due to upwelling with the shallow shelf? Further, aren't storms traveling north along the pennisula susceptible to weakening due to the disruption on the east side of it's access to water? Not that it would necessarily happen, but I think that has been the post hoc analysis of the reason for storms weakening following that track.

Well, the upwelling issue would likely be dependent on the forward speed of the cyclone. Apalachee Bay is pretty shallow.

Also, the disruption of circulation by the Peninsula makes sense, but it doesn't appear Cuba/Jamaica/Hispanola really weakened Dennis.

[fci]

I don't wish this potential monster on ANYONE.
We all enjoy the chase and anticipation as Weather-Nuts; but don't want it hitting us.
Just wish for it not to hit where YOU live and not on anyone else in particular.
An area that you call SWAMP is probably somone else's home and they wish it on YOU!!!
Bottom line is don't rationalize that somewhere YOU don't live is a good place for this to hit.
There is NO good place for it to hit!!!

[Agua]

I don't wish this potential monster on ANYONE.
We all enjoy the chase and anticipation as Weather-Nuts; but don't want it hitting us.
Just wish for it not to hit where YOU live and not on anyone else in particular.
An area that you call SWAMP is probably somone else's home and they wish it on YOU!!!
Bottom line is don't rationalize that somewhere YOU don't live is a good place for this to hit.
There is NO good place for it to hit!!!

Well, I'll agree with that. And I don't want it to hit anyone, but we know that it's going to happen. These storms are at once, terrifying, and fascinating. I hope a huge patch of 50 knot shear develops in front of the thing and it evaporates.