00z GFS is trickling in.. North.. West.. North Off Coast..

[ericinmia]

This run has all the new snyoptic mission and station data.
The new GFDL run off of this should also be interesting.

Here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Huckster]

Thanks for posting that link again. Now I don't have to keep looking for it, or adding a 1000th link to my favorites.

[gatorcane]

I don't like what it is showing so far for S. Florida and the FL Keys...it has shifted right.

[dhweather]

In about half an hour, we should see what the 00Z GFS has to say.

[ericinmia]

Its starting off heading NNW-N in the first couple frames... yikes.
This is what i was hoping i was not going to see, but it makes sense considering the snyoptics.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jkt21787]

Its starting off heading NNW-N!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Way too soon to see if that means anything. We need many more frames. Watch closely in this next hour...this is a critical model run...

[gatorcane]

it is shifting right in a BIG way....it ought to get interesting for the 5AM advisory. Watch out FL Keys

[tim_in_ga]

Its starting off heading NNW-N!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

You can tell that from 3 frames? Let's give this thing a few more frames.

[LAwxrgal]

Wow... this is WELL right! This is a disaster scenario for the coast of Southern Florida...a coast rider....

[gatorcane]

it better start getting pushed more NW by the ridge at 26 degrees or else the FL Keys are in big trouble.

[gatorcane]

this is getting way to suspensful for me....it could be the ultimate disaster scenario for S. Florida and the W. Coast of Florida

[Stormcenter]

it is shifting right in a BIG way....it ought to get interesting for the 5AM advisory. Watch out FL Keys

Do you think it's headed to Boca Raton?

[Guest]

Already bogus run, if you notice it has the high pressure backed way off florida, so we know it starts out with poor initialization.

[tim_in_ga]

Gets pushed west before getting to S FLA.

[HurricaneQueen]

Wow. Early indications appear to have it going North. Of course that's only three frames but it looks to be heading straight for the tip of S. Fl. Move west, darn it!

[gatorcane]

Already bogus run, if you notice it has the high pressure backed way off florida, so we know it starts out with poor initialization.

No, I think that High IS backing off and Dennis is eroding it....that is what the other models are not picking up on....

[dhweather]

It's taking a hard left right about where it should, based upon the ridge.

[PurdueWx80]

Has a stronger ridge in the gulf at 24 hrs as compared to this morning's run, even though the storm is shown to be significantly further east. Hope we didn't get some bad data in there like last year - was that during CHarley or Ivan...I forget now?!?!

[jkt21787]

Keep in mind a more northerly trek through Cuba likely means a much weaker storm coming offshore, low end cat 2 if not lower. Serious Mountains in that area.

[Huckster]

it better start getting pushed more NW by the ridge at 26 degrees or else the FL Keys are in big trouble.

Looks like that might be the case. I've only got 6 frames so far, but the last two make it seem that the 'cane might go left enough to spare at least the eastern Keys a direct hit.