Canadian: New Orleans-Gulfport!!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

Canadian: New Orleans-Gulfport!!

#1 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:15 pm

http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all.htm
Still coming in and haven't analyzed much, just a glance, but it appears to be a Mobile hit.

Thats of course much further west than previous runs
Last edited by jkt21787 on Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#2 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:16 pm

Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bevgo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:46 pm
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

Yuck

#3 Postby bevgo » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:17 pm

Not good at all
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#4 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!


Actually that looks like Bay St. Louis, Ms. :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact FritzPaul

#5 Postby FritzPaul » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

That's not Mobile! That's Biloxi via mouth of MS river, but hopefully this is an outlier model!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#6 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

skysummit wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!


Actually that looks like Bay St. Louis, Ms. :D


Bingo - that's a camille path right there.
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#7 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

skysummit wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!


Actually that looks like Bay St. Louis, Ms. :D

Its a little hard to tell. Between NO and the MS coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
goodlife
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 331
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:41 pm
Location: Mandeville, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact goodlife

#8 Postby goodlife » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:19 pm

That's an AWFULLY big shift from previous paths....
What's it seeing different now than before?
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#9 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm

FritzPaul wrote:That's not Mobile! That's Biloxi via mouth of MS river, but hopefully this is an outlier model!

Yes, I correctly edited the title.

I DEFINITELY want to see the UKMET and Euro Now.

Not sure what to make of this yet. This is a HUGE shift.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BRCop
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:03 pm
Location: Baton Rouge, La.

#10 Postby BRCop » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm

Looks like a Gulfport/Biloxi hit to me. That would still push a lot of water into Lake Ponchatrain.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#11 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm

It's all in the interpretation of the ridge.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#12 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:24 pm

BRCop wrote:Looks like a Gulfport/Biloxi hit to me. That would still push a lot of water into Lake Ponchatrain.



Same path as Camille... How did New Orleans fare in that one?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
goodlife
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 331
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:41 pm
Location: Mandeville, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact goodlife

#13 Postby goodlife » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:25 pm

anybody know anything about this model?
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=MM5&mdl=grads/afwa/panel2&file=anim
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LSU2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1711
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Cut Off, Louisiana

#14 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:25 pm

This really sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I really want to see the movement of the rest of the models tomorrow. I don't expect GFDL or others to move because of the GFS but it to moved slightly more west or at least stayed the same last run.
TIM
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Mississippi Storm Magnet
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:02 pm
Location: Diamondhead, Mississippi
Contact:
Contact Mississippi Storm Magnet

#15 Postby Mississippi Storm Magnet » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:26 pm

See? DHWeather, your power is useless against me!
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#16 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:26 pm

lsu2001 wrote:This really sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I really want to see the movement of the rest of the models tomorrow. I don't expect GFDL or others to move because of the GFS but it to moved slightly more west or at least stayed the same last run.
TIM

GFDL and the other tropicals will not shift far from GFS.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#17 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:28 pm

Mississippi Storm Magnet wrote:See? DHWeather, your power is useless against me!


Homie, it ain't over till it's over! As soon as Dennis realizes that I live here, he'll head somewhere else. Your powers are negated PLUS
by mine! HA!

I'm going to bed. I'll call you in the morning, assuming you won't be up all night watching this.

We may need to plan a "shutter up" party Saturday.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LSU2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1711
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Cut Off, Louisiana

#18 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:28 pm

i agree thats what I was trying to say but couldn't get it out.
TIM
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
EarthStormFire

#19 Postby EarthStormFire » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:33 pm

Bad news for NOLA, perhaps UKMET isn't an outlier. The whole gulf needs to be watching Dennis very closely. Even those out of the cone, can't be sure.
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#20 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:35 pm

This run of the Canadian still sucks...it takes the storm due west for a while at initialization...which is crap.

The GFS also does some wierd things, taking the storm so far north across Cuba....
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost and 102 guests