Dennis might not like Cuban soil .

[tailgater]

Dennis has taken a bend back closer to WNW in it's latest jog, looking at the water vapor loops the ridge over Fla. extends out to @ 87west then sharply recurves ( flattens out). The models say it will push right though, but if all those Models weren't telling me NW or NNW, I would think WNW till about the western tip of Cuba then it would be anybodies guess. This is just what I'd Guess looking at the sat. pics.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it can stay over that 90 degree water in then take the western part of Cuba. Then this will likely be a very powerful hurricane once it moves back into the Gulf.

[Hurricane Cheese]

If it can stay over that 90 degree water in then take the western part of Cuba. Then this will likely be a very powerful hurricane once it moves back into the Gulf.

Agreed. The million dollar question right now is how strong will it be when it enters the Gulf because that in turn is going to have a domino effect on the emergency management plans for the US areas in its projected path.

Time will certainly tell...

[rtd2]

If it can stay over that 90 degree water in then take the western part of Cuba. Then this will likely be a very powerful hurricane once it moves back into the Gulf.

Matt,
Local Met said @ 10pm the GOMEX SST's Would not support Cat 4...Any thoughts?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Most of the Gulf is around 84 to 87 degrees. It would support a five. Remember Camille. Maybe not as favable as the Western Caribbean an which case has 88 to 92 degree water. The 26 line is not to deep over the northern gulf. But if this thing moves as fast as it is now no problem.

[Swimdude]

We'll certainly see at the next update in under 45 minutes...

[gkrangers]

The eastern GOM probably doesn't have the kind of explosive development potential like Dennis did today...

Should be able to support a Category 3-4 storm tho...as long as upper level conditions stay favorable.

[rtd2]

Most of the Gulf is around 84 to 87 degrees. It would support a five. Remember Camille. Maybe not as favable as the Western Caribbean an which case has 88 to 92 degree water. The 26 line is not to deep over the northern gulf. But if this thing moves as fast as it is now no problem.

Good points...thank you!

[tailgater]

The eastern GOM probably doesn't have the kind of explosive development potential like Dennis did today...

Should be able to support a Category 3-4 storm tho...as long as upper level conditions stay favorable.

Agreed but the central GOM would support @ cat 5.

[Droop12]

It doesnt all have to do with how warm the waters are. There are a million other things that affect how strong a system can be. For now Im fairly confident the Gulf waters wont support more then a minimal 4. Also as you get closer to the North Gulf Coast, the waters have already been churned quite a bit this year, so I would expect landfall intensity to be more then a moderate Cat 3 with winds around 120mph at max. This is just my opinion and I basically agree with the NHC intensity wise.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Link to your view??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It doesnt all have to do with how warm the waters are. There are a million other things that affect how strong a system can be. For now Im fairly confident the Gulf waters wont support more then a minimal 4. Also as you get closer to the North Gulf Coast, the waters have already been churned quite a bit this year, so I would expect landfall intensity to be more then a moderate Cat 3 with winds around 120mph at max. This is just my opinion and I basically agree with the NHC intensity wise.

Tell that to Camille,Allen in many others.