The 2 big players.....

[tampastorm]

Have not been on, so exscuse me if there is already a thread.
To me it is quite obvious the next 24 hours it will stay on its present track, beyond that there are 2 HUGE questions.

1) Will the bermuda high stay in place?
2) What I think will determine this is the trough coming through texas.
If it keeps coming through the gulf the bermuda high will retreat NE causing more polward motion.
But if the trough through Texas retreats the high builds in a causing a westward movement. This is just my opinion, but I think it makes sense. opinions?

[Greg]

In the last 24 hours the track has changed enough to make the storm go right of Jamiaca, as opposed to the previous track of left of the island.

Furthermore, my personal XTRAP model, using a straight edge on the goes floater 2 wv (6 Hrs) on my monitor shows a track straight through the keys.

Does this present another variable?

[tampastorm]

IMO the 2 main factors I mentioned wont come into play at all until 24 hours. So I for the most part will ignore all wobbles and wait to see what the maps show tommorow.

[jlauderdal]

In the last 24 hours the track has changed enough to make the storm go right of Jamiaca, as opposed to the previous track of left of the island.

Furthermore, my personal XTRAP model, using a straight edge on the goes floater 2 wv (6 Hrs) on my monitor shows a track straight through the keys.

Does this present another variable?

Whats the first variable with the your XTRAP model? I can tell you your model may work for the short term but canes dont travel straight for too long.

[Greg]

That's not just a few frames... It's 1/4 of a day straight as an arrow.

[tampastorm]

There are obviously many opinions, of course every moment counts, but as I said I don't think Dennis wont feel the effects of the trough or the high in a significant way until tommorow. IMO I can of course be wrong.

[weatherSnoop]

Missed the afternoon/evening happenings and find it very interesting that local wx svc has already issued flood warnings for Saturday, Sunday...is that indicative of path thoughts or just based on strength of the TC?

[tampastorm]

As of now it would be 150 miles west of Tampa on late Saturday, We would get some good outer bands. And as always speed it moves is huge. Any East jog would be a huge impact on our area.

[weatherSnoop]

Thank you, I hate having to interupt my day by going to work, but...
I just don't recall flood warnings being issued this far in advance.

[tampastorm]

I heard 3-5 inches of rain. There are so many factors still.

[weatherSnoop]

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best is my motto from May to Nov every year. I appreciate the S2K family for allowing me to play catch up