Alternate prediction.

[wxcrazytwo]

I believe I posted this before, but I think it is playing out now. Any thoughts...





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[tampastorm]

I agree to an extent , still keeping close look at ULL digging through TX. If it keeps digging you are most likely correct.

[wxwatcher91]

but also look at the track projected there and the track so far... Dennis has moved a bit more to the west than projected there

[wxcrazytwo]

Actually it is right on target. It depends how you view the map.

[dcuevas]

Okay I'm going to ask a stupid question. I asked it earlier but I don't think anyone responded.... Does anyone think the High Pressure will move East and Dennis will "Skate" up the coast of Florida?

[wxcrazytwo]

dceuvas, that is what we are saying here.

[dcuevas]

Thanks so much! I thought so but I wasn't sure. My local mets are saying just TS winds.

[sprink52]

I think this is an excelent representation of the facts and in my opinion is "dead on".

[wxwonder12]

I just can't understand, due to being a novice, why the computer models look like it will be further off the West coast then the alternate if it were to play out. Is there a possibility it could come furter inland over Florida??

[tim_in_ga]

I just can't understand, due to being a novice, why the computer models look like it will be further off the West coast then the alternate if it were to play out. Is there a possibility it could come furter inland over Florida??

They are over-estimating the strength of the ridge. That's why they are further west.

[dcuevas]

I agree. Then again I am a novice as well. Thank God for Storm2k! I don't feel I'm getting any information from my local mets. I think it is because they just don't know or don't want to tell. Sorry for sounding upset. I'm just concerned. Dennis looks to be mean!

[wxwonder12]

When do the overestimations tend to stop as far as track is concerened??

[tim_in_ga]

When do the overestimations tend to stop as far as track is concerened??

Probably when the data is fed into the models. Don't know when that happens - probably going to be later today, maybe tomorrow AM?

[wxwonder12]

Do you think there is going to be a shift to the East??

[k-man]

But do you all think that the good folks over at the NHC aren't seeing what you're all seeing? If they are, why are they nudging this thing to the west?

[tim_in_ga]

But do you all think that the good folks over at the NHC aren't seeing what you're all seeing? If they are, why are they nudging this thing to the west?

I think they are going off the same data as GFS and most of the other models - i.e. over-estimating the ridge when they initialized their data.

[wxwonder12]

K-man, that is what I am confused about

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This is getting awfully nerve racking. If they wait until late today or tomorrow to feed in new data, that wouldn't give Pinellas County long to react if indeed this extremely dangerous storm intends to take a more easterly approach.
On the other hand, if it does slow down its forward speed, we may have time, but a slow down would also indicate a more easterly path - bad.
The ridge will be more eroded and the TX feature would have more time to influence Dennis' direction.

[sprink52]

The NHC has to be as accurate as they can given the tools that they have. At the same time we must understand that NHC is a government agency that supplies info not only to the public but to local governmental agencies. The info that local agencies receive I suspect is much more detailed than what we as the public receive. Local agencies make decisions based upon their evaluation of the NHC info and their specific knowledge of their unique local resouces as well as demographics. I think that they do a pretty good job, all things considered.