Joe Bastardi's lastest update
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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bfez1
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Joe Bastardi's lastest update
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LSU2001
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I don't like that idea.(Bastardi's) The Euro track puts a fairly strong storm over almost all of SELA but on the west side of the eye.
TIm
TIm
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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jasons2k
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Joe B.
In his column this AM he basically said this:
He is tossing the models for the most part. He said the GFS is having a problem handing the heat and the ridge over Florida, and since the GFDL is based on the GFS, it is wrong too. Instead, he's focused on satellite loops of the clouds over the Gulf moving west to 85W.
He thinks the ridge over FLA will basically hold, keeping Dennis on more of a WNW track ultimately towards Mouth of Miss. He also said he thinks Dennis will strengthen, lose some of its punch as it passes over Cuba (W of Havana), then regain some in the Gulf, but will lose some of its opunch as it crosses over Cindy's wake, making landfall probabably as a Cat. 3.
A lot depends on where he crosses Cuba and ultimately ends up in the GOM.
He is tossing the models for the most part. He said the GFS is having a problem handing the heat and the ridge over Florida, and since the GFDL is based on the GFS, it is wrong too. Instead, he's focused on satellite loops of the clouds over the Gulf moving west to 85W.
He thinks the ridge over FLA will basically hold, keeping Dennis on more of a WNW track ultimately towards Mouth of Miss. He also said he thinks Dennis will strengthen, lose some of its punch as it passes over Cuba (W of Havana), then regain some in the Gulf, but will lose some of its opunch as it crosses over Cindy's wake, making landfall probabably as a Cat. 3.
A lot depends on where he crosses Cuba and ultimately ends up in the GOM.
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Stratosphere747
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Strange guy..
Can't say I've really watched him for sometime, but he would get more validity out of me if he did not act so strange under what looks to be a incredible disaster for not only Cuba, but for somewhere in the GOM as well.
As far as his track and what he stated on his video, that looks like it is about to go to crap and hit Cuba much sooner than he tried to predict. Still looks to be right on with NHC's path.
Can't say I've really watched him for sometime, but he would get more validity out of me if he did not act so strange under what looks to be a incredible disaster for not only Cuba, but for somewhere in the GOM as well.
As far as his track and what he stated on his video, that looks like it is about to go to crap and hit Cuba much sooner than he tried to predict. Still looks to be right on with NHC's path.
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x-y-no
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Well, I just took a look at the video, and he's going nuts at the GFDL for being close to 22N 80W at its 6 hour point - saying "you're not supposed to bust by 40 miles on a 6 hour forecast.
Well, right now, with the more northerly track over the last few hours, that forecast doesn't look too bad.
I'll agree the 18Z and 0Z runs of the GFS were busts as far as where he crosses - and I said at the moment I saw them that I thought that was in error. OTOH, I don't have archived runs of the UKMET, but is he really right in claiming it's been "dead on" for the last two days? My recollection is it was too far south yesterday.
And bottom line, will he be as scornful of his own prediction of a crossing in the western portion of Cuba if this current motion does more or less continue across central Cuba? I'm not holding my breath.
Jan
Well, right now, with the more northerly track over the last few hours, that forecast doesn't look too bad.
I'll agree the 18Z and 0Z runs of the GFS were busts as far as where he crosses - and I said at the moment I saw them that I thought that was in error. OTOH, I don't have archived runs of the UKMET, but is he really right in claiming it's been "dead on" for the last two days? My recollection is it was too far south yesterday.
And bottom line, will he be as scornful of his own prediction of a crossing in the western portion of Cuba if this current motion does more or less continue across central Cuba? I'm not holding my breath.
Jan
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