Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph

[wxwatcher91]

the thing is this really doesnt look like a "wobble"
this shift to the north looks very "earnest"

I still think this is gonna strike Florida

[canegrl04]

HOLY CRAP

Dennis will anihalate Cuba. And do the same to any US coastal town in ts path if he strengthens more after crossing back over water

[soonertwister]

Holy cow, I never dreamed that Dennis could get this strong, especially this soon.

The track that NHC has for Dennis runs the center of the storm right over Havana, with a population of over 2 million people.

[nolecaster]

Agree Derek, I learned a lot over the past couple months regarding how the size of the storm affects the SLP, and how a smaller storm would have a higher SLP but stronger (relative to the pressure) winds due to gradients...

[Stratusxpeye]

the thing is this really doesnt look like a "wobble"
this shift to the north looks very "earnest"

I still think this is gonna strike Florida

By florida do you mean western pennisula/big bend, Or the Panhandle? What are the chances of this thing sliding right offshore of the west coast. 50-100 miles? Im hearing alot about this ridge and the ull troughing down south. Any pro mets or anyone with experience can you please adv us of the possibility or chances of that happeaning? Belive me im not -removed- with this thing. Just want a scientific anwser. I think the tracks will shift well east later 5pm or 11pm adv. My opinion only though. Looks lik ea north turn sort of on images.

[HumanCookie]

That will be 184 mph. Holy Cow!

[gtalum]

the thing is this really doesnt look like a "wobble"
this shift to the north looks very "earnest"

I still think this is gonna strike Florida

Turn or no turn, the final visible frame has Dennis' eye dead nuts on the NHC forecast point.

[wxwatcher91]

yeah you're right.

it looks like Dennis has jogged back to a W or WNW track- no joke take a look at the latest satellite imagery

[Innotech]

well I dreamed of a Cat 5 hurricane a few nights ago and it looks like it iwll ocme true!

[smashmode]

Praying that this thing strikes the least populated areas!

[vbhoutex]

the thing is this really doesnt look like a "wobble"
this shift to the north looks very "earnest"

I still think this is gonna strike Florida

By florida do you mean western pennisula/big bend, Or the Panhandle? What are the chances of this thing sliding right offshore of the west coast. 50-100 miles? Im hearing alot about this ridge and the ull troughing down south. Any pro mets or anyone with experience can you please adv us of the possibility or chances of that happeaning? Belive me im not -removed- with this thing. Just want a scientific anwser. I think the tracks will shift well east later 5pm or 11pm adv. My opinion only though. Looks lik ea north turn sort of on images.

Not going to address the "turn". However, if the NHC track or a little to its' East verifies(which I think it will), much of the lower West coast of FL, especially below the Tampa Bay area could easily experience TS force winds from Dennis as he passes to the West. Unless he is at least 150 miles off the coast this is a very good possibility. This was even addressed in an earlier NHC discussion I saw(if it wasn't NHC it was a Pro-Met(and I don't mean OCM)).

[slowjoe]

yeah you're right.

it looks like Dennis has jogged back to a W or WNW track- no joke take a look at the latest satellite imagery

stop it already

[mf_dolphin]

People look at the motion over the course of a several hours not frame by frame. You'll drive yourself and the rest of us crazy

[Brent]

People look at the motion over the course of a several hours not frame by frame. You'll drive yourself and the rest of us crazy

[Amanzi]

People look at the motion over the course of a several hours not frame by frame. You'll drive yourself and the rest of us crazy

WELL said MF. You shoul put that into your signature!

[Brent]

Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 16a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 08, 2005



...Dennis making landfall along the south-central coast of Cuba
as a strong category 4 hurricane...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect along the Florida West
Coast south of Bonita Beach...and along the Florida East Coast
south of Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect along
the Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 22.1 north... longitude 80.6 west or near Cienfuegos
Cuba. This is also about 125 miles... 205 km...southeast of Havana
Cuba and about 190 miles... 300 km...south-southeast of Key West
Florida.

While some wobbling has occurred...as is typical of a major
Hurricane...Dennis is expected to continue moving toward the
northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. On this track...the center
should emerge off the north-central coast of Cuba this evening.

Reconnaissance aircraft reports indicate maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 145 mph...235 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Although Dennis is still a strong category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale...some additional weakening is forecast as
Dennis moves over Cuba. However...Dennis is expected to remain a
major hurricane as it emerges over The Straits of Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was 941 mb...27.79 inches.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over Cuba...with local 15 inch amounts over the Sierra
Maestra mountains of southeastern Cuba. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
is expected over extreme southern Florida...Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are likely in
areas of onshore winds along the southeast coast of Cuba east of
Cabo Cruz. A much larger storm surge of near 20 feet is possible
along the southern coast of Cuba west of Cabo Cruz. A storm surge
of 3 to 6 feet is possible in the lower Florida Keys. A storm surge
of 4 to 7 feet is possible along the southwest coast of Florida
tonight and Saturday.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible over the Florida Keys and the
southern Florida Peninsula into Saturday.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...22.1 N... 80.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 941 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

It will be a rapid trip thru Cuba as by evening it will emerge in the GOM.

[Brent]

It's moving faster... meaning less time over land. Not good.

[dhweather]

So the Cubans are letting recon fly in their airspace?

[LAwxrgal]

I was about to say, dang he's moving faster?