THE OFFICIAL DENNIS LANDFALL PREDICTION THREAD

#101 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:27 am

I'm still sticking with mine....never have shifted it, even in the face of being called a "wishcaster"

#102 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:28 am

I'm still sticking with mine....never have shifted it, even in the face of being called a "wishcaster"

(you can read it on page 1 I believe :wink:

)

cajungal · #103 Postby **cajungal** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:56 am

Sticking back to my original forecast of landfall between Gulf Shores, and Pensacola. Louisiana is not out the woods, but it is looking better for us with every run. My gut feeling is that it will miss us. Just my opinion. But, still keep close tabs on it if you are anywhere on the Gulf Coast. Things could change at the drop of a hat.

#104 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:24 pm

Bumping for more opinions.

soonertwister · #105 Postby **soonertwister** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:09 pm

I'm ready to make a prediction, primarily based on where Dennis has gone in the last 24 hours compared to the forecast track, which is toward the right edge of the cone. Because of that, I think for now I'd favor landfall somewhere around Apalachicola, or possibly farther east, even Tampa Bay or south.

I noticed someone earlier talking about Naples, which is well south of there. Naples has been within Dennis' "cone" almost continuously since last Saturday night. I hope nobody there is complacent. It was only last year that a hurricane made only a slight jog to the right of the middle of the forecast path, and people found themselves unprepared for a major cane. Those people had been in the cone for lots of days, but because the little line didn't go right through their location, somehow they thought they were not at risk.

Given that example, nobody has an excuse not to be prepared anywhere on the west coast of Florida this year.

BTW, I don't expect to be right with this, I'm just taking a hunch guess, not a most probable on.

sprink52 · #106 Postby **sprink52** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:31 pm

Although completely un-official, I'm drawing a bulls eye on the Mexico Beach-Cape San Blas area. This is after skirting the Tampa-St. Petersburg area with Cat 1 & 2 winds. I call landfall intensity at Cat 3.

#107 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:17 pm

First call... I will make a final call later... this is unofficial by the way...

I am going to see between Pass Christian, MS and Mobile, AL. This may also come very close to Key West.

Coredesat · #108 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:42 pm

I'm guessing a landfall just west of Pensacola. Unless there's a more rapid increase in the shear in the area than what some models are calling for, I'm guessing high Cat 3/low Cat 4.

seannymac · #109 Postby **seannymac** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:42 pm

On my mid-afternoon jog I saw several turtles making their way to higher ground. . . not normal. Also, the Key deer are on the move all over the darned road and acting bizarre so I'm venturing that the animals know something is not right. I wouldn't be surprised if the lower Keys get a direct hit.

rainyday · #110 Postby **rainyday** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:56 pm

Between Apalachicola Florida and Cedar Key Florida as a CAT 3 between
3 am and 8 am on Sunday July 10. Might even be a low Cat 4. This is my
Alabama redneck prediction. All jokes aside, God have mercy on those in
the path.

#111 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:51 am

Bump.

Coredesat · #112 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:52 am

I think this topic should be stickied. It'd probably deter people from making duplicate landfall threads.

#113 Postby **Rocketman** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:56 am

*shoots from the hip*

Panama City.

#114 Postby **drudd1** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:02 pm

My completely unofficial prediction:

Not sure I am confident enough to nail down a precise location, but for the last two days I have felt strongly Dennis will hit east of Pensacola. I am not convinced that anywhere from Pensacola eastward, and also the entire Florida West Coast is safe.

Website · #115 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:10 pm

Friday Afternoon Prediction:

Dauphin Island to Destin... bullseye at Pensacola Beach as a Strong Cat 3 or Weak Cat 4.

shiftknob · #116 Postby **shiftknob** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:16 pm

I think he will land somewhere between Ft. Meyers and just north of Tampa. :eek:

wxwatcher91 · #117 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:26 pm

I'm saying Dennis rides the west coast of Florida about 50 to 100miles to the west and then will gradually turn east and will strike the big bend...

then it will slowly emerge into the Atlantic again off the NC coast and will strengthen to a strong tropical storm and will strike New England...

the second part is -removed- but the first part I'm pretty confident with

#118 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:28 pm

I'm sticking with between Grand Isle and Pascagoula and the UKMET overall as model of choice for past 2 days

#119 Postby **Trader Ron** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:37 pm

My original forecast was between N.O and Pensacola. Moving it East. Gulfport to Panama City Beach. Cat 2 at landfall.

Swimdude · #120 Postby **Swimdude** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:59 pm

I believe this will actually be a borderline cat. 3/4 upon landfall. We'll just have to wait and see how badly Cuba rips him apart...

THE OFFICIAL DENNIS LANDFALL PREDICTION THREAD

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