FORECAST INTENSITY

[Ivanhater]

As Ive been listening to forecast, ive heard that dennis should weaken some of cuba(to be expected) but when it gets over the gulf, they say it should maintain itself, my question is, what factors will keep it from continuing to strengthen in the gulf like it has been doing from day 1?

[gkrangers]

Shear and lower SSTs.

[Brent]

The water is plenty warm in the Gulf... Mid 80's everywhere.

[jax]

this time of your the higher temps are confined to a thin layer...

if you go down 10-15 feet the temps are closer to 80'

15 to 30 foot seas will mix it all up pretty quick...

[gkrangers]

The water is plenty warm in the Gulf... Mid 80's everywhere.

Sure, but the heat content is lower. Plenty for a very strong hurricane, but its not quite as volatile as the Carribbean.

[otowntiger]

I've heard and read just recently that it is the climatological norm for strong storms that are headed to the northern gulf coast to weaken prior to landfall, i.e. Ivan, Opal, Lily, Carmen ('74), Hilda ('64), Andrew, and others. A few notable exceptions are Frederick, Betsy. BTW as bad as she was its my understanding that Camille peaked when she was just off of the mouth of the Mississippi. Her winds were down somewhat before she made landfall in MS.

[jkt21787]

I've heard and read just recently that it is the climatological norm for strong storms that are headed to the northern gulf coast to weaken prior to landfall, i.e. Ivan, Opal, Lily, Carmen ('74), Hilda ('64), Andrew, and others. A few notable exceptions are Frederick, Betsy. BTW as bad as she was its my understanding that Camille peaked when she was just off of the mouth of the Mississippi. Her winds were down somewhat before she made landfall in MS.

Although some storms have weakened before landfall, many others haven't

The gulf coast should be preparing for a major hurricane, perhaps a cat 4 (still think it won't make it to that though at landfall)