The ridge is buckling

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
wxcrazytwo

The ridge is buckling

#1 Postby wxcrazytwo » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:24 pm

Image

you can see the bend in the north eastern quadrant.

[/url]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html[url]

Play the loop on 15 frames and you can see the lower part of the ridge giving in..[/url]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by wxcrazytwo on Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:25 pm

STOP THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:26 pm

actually, the ridge is building in even more
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#4 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:27 pm

people see whatever they want to see, lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
loon
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 655
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:50 pm
Location: Downtown Houston

#5 Postby loon » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:27 pm

I was going to say it Derek, but, alas, this bickering over the ridge has gotten old...atleast a met said it this time...thanks

cheers,
loon
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#6 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:29 pm

WRONG!!!

Ridge is not buckling. Its amazing what eyes can see.
0 likes   
Top
wxcrazytwo

#7 Postby wxcrazytwo » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:32 pm

maybe so. I thought I saw some bending there..Oh well.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#8 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:38 pm

wxcrazy... where exactly are you???
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
jax

#9 Postby jax » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:39 pm

I think he's in the Tampa area...
0 likes   
Top
wxcrazytwo

#10 Postby wxcrazytwo » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:39 pm

I'm in Tampa..at work slaving away.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:39 pm

As an amateur, I always thought with intense hurricanes, they actually strengthen the high pressure to the north of them. In this case, I would have to guess this is what's taking place?

Derek..do you think this is what's taking place? If so, how much of an influence would this be on the forecast track at this time?
0 likes   
Top
Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#12 Postby Droop12 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:40 pm

I second that question.
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#13 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:44 pm

Brent wrote:wxcrazy... where exactly are you???

Why would you ask that question? You don't think he could be seeing things because he lives in FL? Nah, he couldn't. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#14 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:53 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Brent wrote:wxcrazy... where exactly are you???

Why would you ask that question? You don't think he could be seeing things because he lives in FL? Nah, he couldn't. :wink:


no kevin, not him...but, seriously...can we stop, at least, making new topics for this...and thanks for the profession help
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#15 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:actually, the ridge is building in even more



Thank you for the objective and VERY PROFESSIONAL opinion Derek.


David
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
crazycajuncane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 2:51 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact crazycajuncane

#16 Postby crazycajuncane » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:03 pm

This kinda stuff will keep me far away from these boards during the day time. I guess that's why I'm usually on here after 11pm.
0 likes   
Top
rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#17 Postby rtd2 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:04 pm

I was thinking Early this morning havanah would Be spared the Core but Now I'm not so sure

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#18 Postby chris_fit » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:10 pm

What is this coming down from Iowa?

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#19 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:10 pm

After viewing the WV loops for the last day looking for any sign of a turn towards us in SW Florida I've determined that the ridge is firm and holding. NHC basically has it right.

Dennis has been a burper swinging right and teasing us, but basically correcting back left and averaging on NHC. The main Atlantic Bermuda High is firm and guiding Dennis on that gradual NHC curve. In my opinion it isn't buckling.

There's a secondary High over Florida nosing into the eastern most Gulf as an extension of the ridge. This should relay Dennis off the main Atlantic steering High and keep him on NHC.

A view of the WV loop shows some business up in the northern Gulf where the trough merges with the return flow off the High. Looking at it it looks possible that shear will keep Dennis down near the coast - but who knows really.

Track from this merge is interesting because it looks to me like a curve and turn into Destin upon approach.

Right now Dennis has smoothed little left again in obedience with NHC - which is good for us here in SW Florida.

Theory:

The WV "point" caused by the flat edge in the Gulf and flat edge in the Atlantic points a little north of NW. Interpolate this into the present track and Pensacola looks to be in the crosshairs. If the High is unbudging Bastardi could be correct. That is the question at this point...
0 likes   
Top
Terry
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1450
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 8:25 pm
Location: Lakeland and Anna Maria Island, FL
Contact:
Contact Terry

#20 Postby Terry » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:11 pm

Well, I personally won't argue with Derek, since he is The Man. However, I did see another met state that the ridge is eroding slowly...building northward, but eroding on the southern edge.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Teban54 and 335 guests