Discussion from TPC about Gulf Of Mexico

[cycloneye]

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC NEAR A HIGH CENTER AT
30N79W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY SW TO 26N89W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS RIDGE IS KEEPING THE HURRICANE MOVING IN A
GENERAL NW DIRECTION AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE HIGH. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LOW IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NE TEXAS ALONG THE
TROUGH FROM ARKANSAS THRU SE TEXAS. DENNIS APPEARS LIKELY TO
MOVE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC AND THE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN
DETERMINING WHETHER DENNIS CURVES A LITTLE CLOSER TO FLORIDA...A
WEAK RIDGE SCENARIO/STRONGER TROUGH... OR TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST... A STRONG RIDGE/WEAK TROUGH SITUATION.
The above from the 2:05 Discussion.

As Always a good discussion from Blake about what is going on in the GOM.

[HURAKAN]

As always, a waiting game!

[loon]

Good info cycloneye, thanks!

I think he hit on exactly what some of the more rational members of the board have been saying all morning, lots of variables in play right now and stronger will win, you can only watch and wait. Again I feel for the NHC right now as Dennis will clear Cuba tonight and then it really is go time at which point I think a little more confidence will need to be shown in predicted landfall areas....with the ever changing ridges and lows, man...thats gotta suck...

cheers,
loon

[wx247]

This just goes to show that no one knows right now for sure. Let the waiting game begin. I hope everyone along the Gulf Coast from NOLA to Key West is paying attention.

[jlauderdal]

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC NEAR A HIGH CENTER AT
30N79W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY SW TO 26N89W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS RIDGE IS KEEPING THE HURRICANE MOVING IN A
GENERAL NW DIRECTION AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE HIGH. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LOW IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NE TEXAS ALONG THE
TROUGH FROM ARKANSAS THRU SE TEXAS. DENNIS APPEARS LIKELY TO
MOVE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC AND THE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN
DETERMINING WHETHER DENNIS CURVES A LITTLE CLOSER TO FLORIDA...A
WEAK RIDGE SCENARIO/STRONGER TROUGH... OR TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST... A STRONG RIDGE/WEAK TROUGH SITUATION.
The above from the 2:05 Discussion.

As Always a good discussion from Blake about what is going on in the GOM.

for anyone that wants to get a quick lesson in troughs and ridges take a look at the wv loop and you will see exactly what they are talking about.

notice the trough in the western gulf digging and digging and big d staying on a nw-nnw course and thus the thought of this being a little bit closer to florida than say the ukmet(lol) wants to take it. Enjoy folks, this is tropical weather watching at its finest this afternoon as we have a trough and a ridge battling it out and we have land interaction(duh its coming onshore) affecting intensity and motion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[tim_in_ga]

Did y'all notice the clouds just north of the Yucatan suddenly zip off to the east? What is that?

[Cookiely]

If my granny was alive she would say Florida is stuck between a rock and a hard place. I think that about sums it up.

[jamima]

That was some good information. I think alot of people are putting their guard down and they should really be watching this really carefully alot can change.

[jes]

Thanks so much for that tutorial ---- I have been trying to recognize what y'all have been talking about for 2 years. Now its clear to me what a trough looks like. How can you determine how strong it is ---- does the color indicate anything or the size? I assume the high is the clear area over Florida. Does that mean when looking at water vapor images that the clear areas are all areas of high pressure. I can see how Mobile is just about in the middle of the low and the high ----- so now I have to wish that brown area will push over mobile.

[dhweather]

Thanks Luis!!!!

[tampastorm]

What is that behind the trough coming through TX? An extenstion? reinforcement? Looks to be diving southeast at a good clip.

[Innotech]

from the direction its rotating, it seems to be the backside of the trough.

[jenshops]

I have held off on posting this because I really believe that weather can change on a dime and we can't be too sure too far out where one of these storms is going, but, I'm going crazy reading all the posts. My parents made reservations at a hotel for tomorrow and I said they were crazy, this storm won't come near us. We live two blocks off the bay in Englewood, Fl which is just north of Port Charlotte. What is the possibility we will get hurricane force winds and when will we know. I go back and forth between no way and maybe, the no way being logical and the maybe being -removed-.