18:00z Model Guidance=Models tightly clustered

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:44 pm

UKMET also has sfifted eastward but still is the most left of all the models.Wow as for the rest of them you will not see anything like this being so clustered.

dwg71 · #2 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:48 pm

Even the UK is coming around, damn brits, they are always late. Isnt there a site (wxundergound, i think) that has a time lapse run of nhc cone. I think it would be good indicator that NHC had this guy pegged from get go.

jkt21787 · #3 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:49 pm

Very close except of course UKMET per the usual. GFDL does go left though at the end.

The tropicals (BAMs, LBAR, 98E) are going for a near GFS landfall as well. Once again no surprise.

Until I see more significant shifts in the UKMET I still am weary of its track.

HurryKane · #4 Postby **HurryKane** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:51 pm

dwg71 wrote:Even the UK is coming around, damn brits, they are always late. Isnt there a site (wxundergound, i think) that has a time lapse run of nhc cone. I think it would be good indicator that NHC had this guy pegged from get go.

The NHC site itself does: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/DE ... hics.shtml

#5 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:54 pm

Still early. I expect to see the models cluster more easterly before Sat. --- but I hope not. We had enough trees uprooted last year!

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:56 pm

dwg71 wrote:Even the UK is coming around, damn brits, they are always late. Isnt there a site (wxundergound, i think) that has a time lapse run of nhc cone. I think it would be good indicator that NHC had this guy pegged from get go.

Off the subject...but did you get any rain out of that line last night? I got a couple of drops but that was it.

#7 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:56 pm

What has happened to A98E? It's been sane the whole trip for Dennis!!

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:57 pm

My MS/AL landfall prediction is looking more and more realistic.
I expect a "majority" of the models to shift a tad bit westward by tomorrow. IMO

This is NOT an official NHC forecast. You need get that from their OFFICIAL site.

#9 Postby **Windy** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:

UKMET also has sfifted eastward but still is the most left of all the models.Wow as for the rest of them you will not see anything like this being so clustered.

What is the base webpage that you find these images on? I can't seem to find it by swimming around at sfwmd.gov.

Thanks!

dwg71 · #10 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:58 pm

HurryKane wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Even the UK is coming around, damn brits, they are always late. Isnt there a site (wxundergound, i think) that has a time lapse run of nhc cone. I think it would be good indicator that NHC had this guy pegged from get go.

The NHC site itself does: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/DE ... hics.shtml

Thanks, its a amazing there hasnt been a major shift in either direction on there course since 11PM monday.

dwg71 · #11 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:59 pm

Windy wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

UKMET also has sfifted eastward but still is the most left of all the models.Wow as for the rest of them you will not see anything like this being so clustered.

What is the base webpage that you find these images on? I can't seem to find it by swimming around at sfwmd.gov.

Thanks!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

#12 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:01 pm

dwg71 wrote:
HurryKane wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Even the UK is coming around, damn brits, they are always late. Isnt there a site (wxundergound, i think) that has a time lapse run of nhc cone. I think it would be good indicator that NHC had this guy pegged from get go.

The NHC site itself does: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/DE ... hics.shtml

Thanks, its a amazing there hasnt been a major shift in either direction on there course since 11PM monday.

That worries me. I'm curious to see what condition the storm comes into the GOM. I just don't see it making landfall as a cat.4 or more storm along the Gulf Coast.

#13 Postby **Windy** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:03 pm

Thanks!

HurryKane · #14 Postby **HurryKane** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:04 pm

Windy wrote:
cycloneye wrote:UKMET also has sfifted eastward but still is the most left of all the models.Wow as for the rest of them you will not see anything like this being so clustered.

What is the base webpage that you find these images on? I can't seem to find it by swimming around at sfwmd.gov.

Thanks!

They hide that thing but good, don't they? I always have to pull it from other sites

Website · #15 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:05 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Still early. I expect to see the models cluster more easterly before Sat. --- but I hope not. We had enough trees uprooted last year!

Of course you would since you live there...

Fact is, models(outside of some flip flopping yesterday), have been very consistent with a hit around the Mobile/Pensacola/FWB area.

#16 Postby **melhow** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:17 pm

Brent wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Still early. I expect to see the models cluster more easterly before Sat. --- but I hope not. We had enough trees uprooted last year!

Of course you would since you live there...

Fact is, models(outside of some flip flopping yesterday), have been very consistent with a hit around the Mobile/Pensacola/FWB area.

puhleese...

Why do you have to point out this "where you live" stuff on every person who takes their guesstimate forecast away from your general direction? For someone who puts a bunch of :eek:

's every time AL is mentioned, you sure get spun up when someone else posts that the track might shift east. I would think that it would make you go

instead. Why you gotta hate?

ROCK · #17 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:28 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Even the UK is coming around, damn brits, they are always late. Isnt there a site (wxundergound, i think) that has a time lapse run of nhc cone. I think it would be good indicator that NHC had this guy pegged from get go.

Off the subject...but did you get any rain out of that line last night? I got a couple of drops but that was it.

here in Pearland got about a half of inch. Looks like the line dissipated right over us. Better luck next time AFM.....

#18 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:30 pm

can someone please clarify why the bam on wunderground is different, it isnt because its old, because it says ran at 2 pm?

Website · #19 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:46 pm

ivanhater wrote:can someone please clarify why the bam on wunderground is different, it isnt because its old, because it says ran at 2 pm?

Looks the same to me...

#20 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:18 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Even the UK is coming around, damn brits, they are always late. Isnt there a site (wxundergound, i think) that has a time lapse run of nhc cone. I think it would be good indicator that NHC had this guy pegged from get go.

Off the subject...but did you get any rain out of that line last night? I got a couple of drops but that was it.

Died right before getting here in Texas City, AFM. The line started to drag around right over top of us but died out. *sigh*

cheers,
loon

18:00z Model Guidance=Models tightly clustered

18:00z Model Guidance=Models tightly clustered

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