Dennis looks east of his projected path

undrpressr_TN · #1 Postby **undrpressr_TN** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:19 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Turn on the "Trop Fcst Pts" and zoom in a bit. To my untrained eye he looks quite a bit east of the forcast line and it is not just a wobble. Other's opinions?

cinlfla · #2 Postby **cinlfla** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:24 pm

Well nobody can accuse you of -removed-. I havn't seen that I'll have to check it out.

soonertwister · #3 Postby **soonertwister** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:24 pm

It turned east of the forecast track about 6 hours ago and has been going in that same direction ever since, straight as an arrow. About 30 degrees to the east of the forecast path.

Track had Dennis going right over Havana, at it looks like it's going to leave Cuba about 60 miles east of Havana, maybe even moree than that. They don't show the keys on the IR image, but it sure looks to me like Dennis is going to come very close to Key West, possibly run over it, at least the eastern eyewall (assuming it retains one there).

jkt21787 · #4 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:25 pm

cinlfla wrote:Well nobody can accuse you of -removed-. I havn't seen that I'll have to check it out.

True, and you can't say the same for me although I'm poised for some remnants possibly.

It is right of the NHC track, but all of the wobbles are averging out to be pretty right on the track overall. No major shifts either way at this point.

#5 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:28 pm

soonertwister wrote:It turned east of the forecast track about 6 hours ago and has been going in that same direction ever since, straight as an arrow. About 30 degrees to the east of the forecast path.

Track had Dennis going right over Havana, at it looks like it's going to leave Cuba about 60 miles east of Havana, maybe even moree than that. They don't show the keys on the IR image, but it sure looks to me like Dennis is going to come very close to Key West, possibly run over it, at least the eastern eyewall (assuming it retains one there).

Thanks, SoonerTwister! I've been waiting for a sensible post about the track. Of course, I agree :wink:

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:31 pm

The system has been wobbling back and forth, let see what happens.

soonertwister · #7 Postby **soonertwister** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:40 pm

In the last six hours there has been no noticeable wobbling, the track has been quite straight and to the right of of the forecast path. It turned abruptly toward the right over six hours ago and has been on the same bearing since. I expect wobbles over time, but this "wobble" hasn't been wobbly.

#8 Postby **wx247** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:44 pm

Pretty much you are correct, but occasionally a frame or two wwe will see a slight west or north blip I guess you could call it. Nothing major though although I would hasten to say that those blips or wobbles can be the difference in where it landfalls eventually!

rtd2 · #9 Postby **rtd2** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:45 pm

soonertwister wrote:It turned east of the forecast track about 6 hours ago and has been going in that same direction ever since, straight as an arrow. About 30 degrees to the east of the forecast path.

Track had Dennis going right over Havana, at it looks like it's going to leave Cuba about 60 miles east of Havana, maybe even moree than that. They don't show the keys on the IR image, but it sure looks to me like Dennis is going to come very close to Key West, possibly run over it, at least the eastern eyewall (assuming it retains one there).

Not so Sure about that! Looks like Havanah is Still in range!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

Steve H. · #10 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:52 pm

It may be east of the forecast track, but it looks to me to be heading WNW currently!

Foladar · #11 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:52 pm

Local news said it is going to the right of the track as well, so it isn't just this user.

gtalum · #12 Postby **gtalum** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:01 pm

Around noon, when some were claiming already that Dennis was east of the track and had been for 2-3 hours, the eye was actually dead center under one of the forecast points. I take it with a grain of salt.

ColdWaterConch · #13 Postby **ColdWaterConch** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:08 pm

Norcross and Mayfield are talking about the same thing (east of track)...those are two opinions that I'll respect

Foladar · #14 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:14 pm

gtalum wrote:Around noon, when some were claiming already that Dennis was east of the track and had been for 2-3 hours, the eye was actually dead center under one of the forecast points. I take it with a grain of salt.

Yeah, guess Max Mayfield and Norcross have no idea what they're talking about. :roll:

BlowinNTheWind · #15 Postby **BlowinNTheWind** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:14 pm

This thing is well right of forecasts at this point...If this thing pushes to the right a little more Tampa..Sarasota...Fort Myers may be the landfall point at this time tomorrow and it seems like those areas are not really thinking they are in danger right now...I hope they are paying attention down there!!

Foladar · #16 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:14 pm

BlowinNTheWind wrote:This thing is well right of forecasts at this point...If this thing pushes to the right a little more Tampa..Sarasota...Fort Myers may be the landfall point at this time tomorrow and it seems like those areas are not really thinking they are in danger right now...I hope they are paying attention down there!!

It can keep pushing right all it wants, it won't land in Tampa.

jkt21787 · #17 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:18 pm

BlowinNTheWind wrote:This thing is well right of forecasts at this point...If this thing pushes to the right a little more Tampa..Sarasota...Fort Myers may be the landfall point at this time tomorrow and it seems like those areas are not really thinking they are in danger right now...I hope they are paying attention down there!!

This will not landfall in the Peninsula.

#18 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:23 pm

please stop....plz...if any place needs to be really paying attention..its NEW ORLEANS!!!! they by all means are NOT out of the woods...and many people are writing them off....potential HUGE mistake...

wxwatcher91 · #19 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:25 pm

yes up until about an hour ago it has been going straight as an arrow due NNW however it appears to have done another jog to the west in the past hour... the eye of Dennis is very unclear due to the weakening that has occured over land however you can barely make it out.

this is what happened about 6 hours ago. Dennis was heading NNW and took a jog WNW for an hour which put him back on the NHC projected track. then Dennis went back to heading NNW and now I think he is doing an hour long jog to the WNW which may actually put him back on track.

Website · #20 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:26 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
BlowinNTheWind wrote:This thing is well right of forecasts at this point...If this thing pushes to the right a little more Tampa..Sarasota...Fort Myers may be the landfall point at this time tomorrow and it seems like those areas are not really thinking they are in danger right now...I hope they are paying attention down there!!

This will not landfall in the Peninsula.

I agree, but you might as well give up... some people will never be convinced.

Dennis looks east of his projected path

Dennis looks east of his projected path

Who is online