Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph

[rtd2]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml


I know loop is 7min old but zoom in! Has it?

[smashmode]

It's moving faster... meaning less time over land. Not good.

Good for cuba though..less damage/rain

[gtalum]

He keeps speeding up now. I suppose that's a good thing anyway.

[HurricaneGirl]

I still can't believe the first huricane of the season is almost a Category 5. Of course it decides to speed up over land.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Uh, that's a good thing that he's speeding up over land. The quicker he moves on, the better for those in his path.

[HurricaneGirl]

Well if he slowed down over land he'd weaken more too. Hopefully, most of the people in his path evacuated.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I expect it will be down to 115 mph. It will likely take intill tomarrow morning before it moves back into the Gulf.

[wxwatcher91]

I expect it will be down to 115 mph. It will likely take intill tomarrow morning before it moves back into the Gulf.

agreed Matt!

[Swimdude]

Uh, that's a good thing that he's speeding up over land. The quicker he moves on, the better for those in his path.

Yes, it's better for those immediately in the path - but Dennis will be back over water in a much shorter period of time.

[Brent]

NWS MOB:

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE WATCH ALZ063-064
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY ALZ051>064.
FL...HURRICANE WATCH FLZ002-004-006

[Brent]

Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 17


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 08, 2005


...Major Hurricane Dennis lashing central Cuba...
...New watches and warnings issued for the United States...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio. Eastern portions of the Hurricane Warning
area will likely be discontinued later tonight.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions
of the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Steinhatchee river westward
to the mouth of the Pearl River.

At 5 PM EDT...the Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida West
Coast has been extended northward to Anclote Key. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect along the Florida West Coast from Anclote
Key southward...and along the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach
southward.

At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued along the
Florida West Coast from north of Anclote Key northward to east of
the Steinhatchee river.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 22.6 north... longitude 81.1 west or about 95 miles
... 150 km... east-southeast of Havana Cuba and about 145 miles...
235 km...south-southeast of Key West Florida.

While some wobbling has continued to occur...as is typical of a
major Hurricane...Dennis is expected to generally move toward the
northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. On this track...the center
should emerge off the north-central coast of Cuba this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 135 mph...215
km/hr...with higher gusts. Although Dennis is still a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale...some additional weakening
is forecast as Dennis moves over Cuba. However...Dennis is expected
to remain a major hurricane as it emerges over The Straits of
Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 65 miles...100 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km. Earlier this afternoon as Dennis made
landfall along the south-central coast of Cuba...a sustained wind
of 99 mph...160 km/hr...with a gust wind gust to 149 mph...240
km/hr...was measured in Cienfuegos...and extensive damage was also
reported.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb...28.02 inches.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over Cuba...with local 15 inch amounts. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall of 4
to 8 inches is expected over the Florida Keys and southern Florida.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are still possible
in areas of onshore winds along the south-central coast of Cuba.
Higher values of storm will be possible in bays and inlets. A
storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is possible in the lower Florida Keys. A
storm surge of 4 to 7 feet is possible along the southwest coast of
Florida tonight and Saturday.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible over the Florida Keys and the
southern Florida Peninsula into Saturday.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...22.6 N... 81.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 949 mb.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 PM EDT and 9 PM EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[Swimdude]

Goodness, we're down to TWO HOUR advisories. Excellent! I'm not surprised that this hurricane has maintained its strength fairly well...

[gtalum]

They actually moved the cone a bit west. Interesting.

[Brent]

[wxwatcher91]

whoa it hasnt weakened that much...

prediction after it exits Cuba: 120mph

[Brent]

Goodness, we're down to TWO HOUR advisories. Excellent! I'm not surprised that this hurricane has maintained its strength fairly well...

Because it'll be going pretty close to Key West.

[LilNoles2005]

They actually moved the cone a bit west. Interesting.

This may be true, but they also moved the predicted landfall just a tad to the east now.

[cycloneye]

082045
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
2100Z FRI JUL 08 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE
KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH
SOUTHWARD.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF
THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 81.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 81.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 80.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 82.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.7N 84.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.8N 85.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.9N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 38.0N 90.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 39.5N 85.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 81.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

DENNIS IS WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NOW...AND THE LAST RECON
REPORT RIGHT AT LANDFALL NEAR CIENFUEGOS INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD
RISEN 3 MILLIBARS TO 941 MB. HOWEVER...A WIND GUST TO 149 MPH WAS
MEASURED IN CIENFUEGOS CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE THERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
ABOUT A MEAN MOTION BETWEEN 310 AND 315 DEGREES THE PAST 12 HOURS
...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT TYPE OF MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
NONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN
THE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF
LOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP-
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWQEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DENNIS TO RE-STRENGTHEN...
POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...ONCE IT REACHES THE 29C SSTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 24 HOURS...DENNIS WILL BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S.
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

ALL OF THE WIND SPEED RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE...
WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA.

SOME FACTS ABOUT DENNIS...THE EARLIEST CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO
DEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO EARLY IN THE
YEAR.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.6N 81.1W 115 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 82.7W 105 KT...OVER S.E. GULF
24HR VT 09/1800Z 25.7N 84.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 27.8N 85.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 34.9N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 90.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 39.5N 85.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cuba is going to distroy its central Core. Not unlike Georges...Isaidor or any of the many hurricanes. Reason is it is moving down the middle of central Cuba. For one parts of Cuba will be distroyed. In if this hits the big city Cuba is going to ask for our help.