The ridge is buckling

[ixl]

Dennis curved right this morning slightly, since then he has held course.

[patsmsg]

you can see the bend in the north eastern quadrant.

[/url]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html[url]

Play the loop on 15 frames and you can see the lower part of the ridge giving in..[/url]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hey, stick to your guns wxcrazytwo. All you did was make an observation...
I do think you're wrong though

[rtd2]

Dennis curved right this morning slightly, since then he has held course.

Please keep these coming! very good info. Shows a nice stair step

[Sanibel]

Dennis has swung way left and will clip the north end of the Bay Of Pigs with his west eyewall.

An hour ago the sky behind the band clouds to the north was bright blue - meaning high pressure. Safe to say we were spared by it here in SW Florida. Now we have dark booming clouds swinging over with overcast.

Havana is under the gun.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think what has been happening here is that both arguments have been correct! The ridge is actually building in- in the northern part of Florida towards the gulf. But, the southwestern part of the ridge has been weakening, allowing a more northerly component to Dennis in the short term. Ultimately, I think that the end result will be the same as far as landfall and that the NHC had that pegged pretty good from the start. The path it takes to get there is the slippery part. Weak lower ridge could allow Dennis to go more northerly initially but then curve back towards the west as directed by the encroaching ridge further north. A stronger southern ridge could have allowed a gradual curve around the periphery to end up at the same destination. I think both "sides" are right about the ridge looking at the WV. Ultimately Dennis is heading up inot the eastern GOM. Depending on the initial* short-term weakness of the southeastern part of the ridge, he may travel closer to SW florida before heading on to the upper gulf coast. If the ridge holds, he will maintain or return to a more NW/WNW path around it and then reach his destination.
So please all, enough of the bickering back and forth over the finer points when he's so far away still. These slight shifts in path are really temporary in the ultimate landfall. -they will affect west coast fl slightly, but not much more than what your local mets are saying in their local forecasts for possible winds/rain amounts. If anything, its the speed/timing of Dennis that affects SW and West Coast the most...timing to your high tides could cause a mess.
Don't get me wrong, I'm still nervous myself - I'd be crazy if I wasn't if a monster like that could come close, especially after Charley's suprise jog last year (I know-different synoptics)! -but the bickering and "-removed- name calling is getting old.

[loon]

Dennis has swung way left and will clip the north end of the Bay Of Pigs with his west eyewall.

An hour ago the sky behind the band clouds to the north was bright blue - meaning high pressure. Safe to say we were spared by it here in SW Florida. Now we have dark booming clouds swinging over with overcast.

Havana is under the gun.

Hey Sanibel! Nice to see ya over here. I noticed you said he swung way left...this is recently? (I've been away from the computer for awhile, left once landfall occured.)

cheers,
loon

[Mattie]

Yep - glad to see you back Sanibel! I always enjoyed reading what you had to say.

[Sanibel]

I'm convinced the High is holding and will do so.

Havana is going to be shaken up barring any crazy turn north...

[rockyman]

The reason all of this "it's moving right of track" business is running rampant is that all of the people who are REALLY in the path of Dennis are out boarding up their houses, gassing up their cars, and doing alot of crying (I've seen grown men cry today)...while those outside the path have plenty of free time to post on message boards...just my opinion.

[jkt21787]

The reason all of this "it's moving right of track" business is running rampant is that all of the people who are REALLY in the path of Dennis are out boarding up their houses, gassing up their cars, and doing alot of crying (I've seen grown men cry today)...while those outside the path have plenty of free time to post on message boards...just my opinion.

THAT is a GREAT Post! I am hoping and praying for the best for you and those in your area and elsewhere that are preparing for this storm. Good luck and stay safe.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

thanx for giving the "grow up" suggestion ! I'm checking this site from home while you are at work and the more people bicker and name-call, the longer it takes me to get REAL HELPFUL INFORMATION!!!! Your Pal, Nikmonster

[cold~front]

The reason all of this "it's moving right of track" business is running rampant is that all of the people who are REALLY in the path of Dennis are out boarding up their houses, gassing up their cars, and doing alot of crying (I've seen grown men cry today)...while those outside the path have plenty of free time to post on message boards...just my opinion.

That's strange! I am not crying and running rampant, hanging boards or anything. Just sitting here at work playing along with the game. You seem a little tense yourself ? We plan to work tomorrow as usual with it being only half a day.

Oh Yea! I live right by the Hang-Out "Pink Pony" in Gulf Shores Al.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Nikmonster...hahaha! Glad you are joining the discussion Baby!
Hang on Honey, this is gonna be a helluva ride this weekend!

[soonertwister]

I'm outside of the path of Dennis because I live in Colorado. I have no dog in this or any hurricane fight. I've commented about the track change for Dennis a couple of times, because it's clearly evident that if it's a wobble, it's an extended one. I don't really believe that this storm will hit southwest Florida, but I sure wouldn't want to be surprised with a powerful hurricane so close.

Maybe Sanibel Island isn't feeling anything right now, but you will. I'm more worried about Key West. Apparently quite a few tourists ended up stranded there because the locals didn't bother to tell them about the mandatory evac order (hurts business and reduces tax revenues), and they don't know how to respond like the locals do.

If any local wants to take a chance that's their privilege. But I don't wishcast a hurricane anywhere because I have no preferences. I DO post my opinions about what constitutes responsible action by authorities to ensure that no ugly surprises occur, and strictly my opinions at that. And I sometimes guess what might happen with a hurricane, and am usually wrong more than I am right.

But I know that Dennis is going to have to turn more to the west to directly hit Havana, because by the track right now it will exit Cuba well east of there. I notice a deviation to the right of forecast track and find it interesting and notable. If someone is so irritated by my observation, not any kind of doomsaying, just observation, then please don't read my posts.

For those of us here who enjoy discussing tropical weather, we weary of others trying to make us tow the party line. I like diversity of opinion, and will continue to exercise my right to have an opinion that is my own, not what someone believes I should parrot.

[Wpwxguy]

I agree with Derek, the ridge is building and I see no erosion. I think they are basing that on a slightly northward move by Dennis. I think Dennis has just bumped into the ridge and will begin to move more wnw without a lot of northerly component. IMO

[GulfHills]

Could someone explain what and how to look for a ridge?

I've been looking at this:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Are the dark areas what is referred to as the ridge? If so, isn't there one on the west below New Orleans?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That's tellin' 'em, Soonertwister !! With a storm of this magnitude, wobble and jog talk gets a bit overwhelming! I personally want to know just how close ANY part of this storm is coming to me! My home is one to two feet above sea level on the west coast of Florida and it is an island, I want REAL info as to whether or not I'm gonna' be under water! Hurricanes are not just about where the eye is gonna' hit, there are lots of other factors to consider! I have read your posts and appreciate your unbiased opinions! Keep looking out for us! THANX!!! Nikmonster @ the desk of Treasure Island Gal

[Foladar]

The reason all of this "it's moving right of track" business is running rampant is that all of the people who are REALLY in the path of Dennis are out boarding up their houses, gassing up their cars, and doing alot of crying (I've seen grown men cry today)...while those outside the path have plenty of free time to post on message boards...just my opinion.

Incorrect. The local news is stating it is moving right of the track, as Norcross spoke with Max Mayfield, so looks like your logic is flawed. Personally, I'd rather trust them than some of the people on here who seem to think just because the user is in Florida, they want to pull it that way.

[deltadog03]

you do..don't lie...come on now

[Steve]

>>than some of the people on here who seem to think just because the user is in Florida, they want to pull it that way.

A little correction for ya . It ain't about "seeming," it simply is what it is. And that is obvious. Personally I couldn't care less if it hit FL or not. I just don't want the Gulf Shores, AL/Pensacola area to suffer an IH again after Ivan. So if it goes in further east or west of there, that would be my preferred solution.

Steve