ERC over Cuba?

[NC George]

I was just watching Fox News, and they were interviewing a local Orlando met, and they were displaying current VIPIR radar images of the storm. Looked like in the last couple of frames a new band of yellow and red wrapped almost completely around the eye.

[deltadog03]

yeah....it has...i just wonder if it continues on present track...that it could hit that patch of water and then head over havana??

[canegrl04]

I noticed they have upgraded the strength forecast of Dennis when he hits the US.Yesterday they were saying cat3,today its cat 4.Wonder if by tomorrow they will be saying possibly cat 5

[Innotech]

it came close, wthing 5 or 6 mph from Cat 5 earlier. Now its a modest cat 4 and iwll probably exit Cuba as strong Cat 3.

[gkrangers]

I noticed they have upgraded the strength forecast of Dennis when he hits the US.Yesterday they were saying cat3,today its cat 4.Wonder if by tomorrow they will be saying possibly cat 5

No, probably strong cat 3 to moderate cat 4.

[djtil]

today its cat 4.

actually still cat 3.


and cuba isnt being kind to dennis

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at loops from Earlier this morning. It looked like a cat5 it really really did before it made landfall. It looked as good if not better then Ivan!!!

[djtil]

nope, cat 3.

you can even see the little red dot....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504.html

[jkt21787]

nope, cat 3.

you can even see the little red dot....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504.html

I see, which is why I deleted my post. Thanks.

[djtil]

hey!! now my post looks like im talking to myself

to be fair....its very very close they just round down to 130.

[jkt21787]

hey!! now my post looks like im talking to myself

to be fair....its very very close they just round down to 130.

lol sorry! Its very close.

[deltadog03]

hey, it might be a cat 2 when it leaves....I think he will be over cuba for a longer time than the NHC is forecasting...thats just my op...does anyone know how far east nhc is saying past havana??

[jhamps10]

actually Max Mayfield from NHC said on CNN that Havana could NOT, I repeat "COULD NOT" be spared from the eye. I think that the storm has been going east of track all along, but oh well.

[deltadog03]

that is insane....They have him going WELL east of HAVANA...look on the maps...

[tim_in_ga]

Latest radar loop out of Key West appears to indicate a potential direct hit on Havana if Dennis maintains it's present course.

[deltadog03]

Latest radar loop out of Key West appears to indicate a potential direct hit on Havana if Dennis maintains it's present course.

looks that way...good obs...IF** this continued and havana takes a direct hit...then all of the models are all off...too far east...

[djtil]

....I think he will be over cuba for a longer time than the NHC is forecasting

i tend to agree......instead of just hopping across the path is taking it down a longer parallel route.....i see another 4 hours.....land is bound to take its toll and i think he will come into the gulf a mid-cat 2

then the question is the heat content of the gulf this time of year.

[jkt21787]

I orginially said it was coming off as a low cat 3 or high cat 2. It looks like that could be a good bit off. Low cat 2 is not out of the question, below 100 mph.

[Normandy]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

if it doesnt weaken any more and comes off looking like that, then itll easily strentghen back to a cat3/4.

[tim_in_ga]

Last couple of frame from the Key West radar look like a shift more northerly. Could be coming off the coast soon!