00:00z Model Guidance

[cycloneye]

[deltadog03]

thanks...they intiallized too far east..jmo

[EDR1222]

I agree, they seem a little to far east. Don't wish this thing on anyone, but the further away from Florida, the better!

[clfenwi]

978
WHXX01 KWBC 090015
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050709 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050709 0000 050709 1200 050710 0000 050710 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 81.6W 24.5N 83.2W 26.4N 84.4W 28.6N 85.2W
BAMM 22.7N 81.6W 24.5N 83.4W 26.2N 84.5W 28.0N 85.4W
A98E 22.7N 81.6W 24.3N 83.6W 26.1N 84.8W 28.1N 85.5W
LBAR 22.7N 81.6W 24.6N 83.3W 26.5N 84.9W 28.3N 85.9W
SHIP 100KTS 95KTS 97KTS 97KTS
DSHP 100KTS 100KTS 102KTS 102KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050711 0000 050712 0000 050713 0000 050714 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.9N 86.1W 35.6N 87.1W 38.2N 85.4W 38.4N 82.9W
BAMM 29.8N 86.1W 33.5N 87.2W 35.5N 85.8W 35.3N 82.6W
A98E 30.2N 86.0W 34.3N 86.1W 37.6N 84.1W 38.8N 80.9W
LBAR 29.9N 86.7W 32.9N 87.9W 34.2N 87.5W 34.6N 84.8W
SHIP 90KTS 68KTS 45KTS 35KTS
DSHP 81KTS 33KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.7N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 79.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 77.1W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 955MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW =

Their intiizalization was right on the NHC position estimate... so, do you guys think the NHC estimate was too far east?

[Huckster]

I think maybe what they mean was that they thought the track is too far east or too far right initially.

[jax]

but the storm is already west of the forcast tracks
posted there... and NOT headed NW yet...

[rolltide]

I agree, With the latest jog to the west I think they intiallized too far east. But just a little.

[HurricaneQueen]

Now, I am REALLY confused. Each time that plot gets posted the way I read it, it is from July 5 and July 6. I haven't seen an updated plot in a couple of days. Even the properties (right click) state it was created and modifed on 7/5/05.

We dscuss how it has moved left and right but I think it has been identical all along. Am I wrong? I've tried refreshing and have used three different computers with the same results.

Thanks,
Lynn

[Brent]

Now, I am REALLY confused. Each time that plot gets posted the way I read it, it is from July 5 and July 6. I haven't seen an updated plot in a couple of days. Even the properties (right click) state it was created and modifed on 7/5/05.

We dscuss how it has moved left and right but I think it has been identical all along. Am I wrong? I've tried refreshing and have used three different computers with the same results.

Thanks,
Lynn

??????

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

Clearly says the 9th at 0z which was just a couple of hours ago.

Where does the NHC track end on your map?? The very end?

[HurricaneQueen]

Brent:

Read across the top lines for each run and note the dates and run times. I don't see the 9th anywhere. I am talking about the plotted map not the data table. What dates do you see?I see the 5th and 6th everytime Cyclone posts it.

Thanks,
Lynn

[clfenwi]

but the storm is already west of the forcast tracks
posted there... and NOT headed NW yet...

Hurricanes are never so kind as to travel along the nice straight lines that we humans like to draw our forecasts with. Unless the forecast is grossly off (i.e. more than 30 degress wrong in heading or 10 mph+ off in seed) you can't accurately say that it is off track only two hours in... four hours, maybe, six hours, certainly, but not in a mere two hours.

Later: Note that 11 PM advisory maintains a heading of 310 degrees

[Pebbles]

Brent:

Read across the top lines for each run and note the dates and run times. I don't see the 9th anywhere. I am talking about the plotted map not the data table. What dates do you see?I see the 5th and 6th everytime Cyclone posts it.

Thanks,
Lynn

go to the top of your internet explorer... click tools.. then internet options.. then under where it says "temporary internet files" click delete files... click the little box that pops up that says "delete all offline content" and hit ok

when this is done click tools..internet options... under 'temporary internet files' click delete cookies

this should help....sounds like you needed to clear out all your temporary internet files and added cookies to boot to make sure your not getting old pages popping up when you look at things

edit: you should clear out your temporary internet files at least once a week or all that garbage can slow down your internet speed

[HurricaneQueen]

THANKS, Pebbles. I had just cleared the cache the other day but that did the trick. I guess I've been on here much too much!!! I appreciate your help-I never would have guessed it got filled up that fast.

Lynn

[Brent]

THANKS, Pebbles. I had just cleared the cache the other day but that did the trick. I guess I've been on here much too much!!! I appreciate your help-I never would have guessed it got filled up that fast.

Lynn

I've never had that problem and I don't clean the temporary files...

[Pebbles]

It sometimes can happen *shrugs* If I'm really surfing alot like i have the past couple of days I'll do it once or twice a day. only takes a couple of seconds and can really improve page load time. Can also sometimes help spyware from getting on your system (clearing cookies) I leave my computer on 24/7 though. If you turn off your computer...clear cookies and temp files everytime before you turn it off and bet improves the spyware situation. Won't get rid of it all..but does help.

edit: Note that reading forums tons will quickly fill up your cache

[PurdueWx80]

*BUMP*

06z models have updated...very interesting! Look at top to see them.