Note the last sentence.......

[dixiebreeze]

This is only my opinion.

When Dennis got extremely strong he abruptly turned to the right, into the ridge. When he hit land and weakened, he turned back toward the NHC official track. It looks to me like now he will be leaving Cuba just a little ways to the east of Havana, but it's close.

And in my opinion, the previous history of Dennis "may" indicate that as Dennis gets stronger, he may dig harder into the ridge, or more poleward. I think that landfall will very likely be on some south-facing coast, but perhaps the ultimate U.S. landfall will in part be determined by how much this hurricane regains his strength, the strength that was present prior to his second Cuba landfall.

Another good post -- you're on a roll, ST.

[shawn67]

Folks,

This is my first post but we have look at things in more than the KBYX, 46 minute increments. Hurricanes act on physics guided by certain forces. I had a wx professor at Ball State tell me the only two things are absolutely true about hurricanes:

1.) They all eventually act on a parabolic curve

2.) They all eventually dissapate

Everything else is conjecture and speculation.


The whole gulf of mexico shoreline should be vigilant now to say any one area is "safe" is fool hardy.

[Brent]

Folks,

This is my first post but we have look at things in more than the KBYX, 46 minute increments. Hurricanes act on physics guided by certain forces. I had a wx professor at Ball State tell me the only two things are absolutely true about hurricanes:

1.) They all eventually act on a parabolic curve

2.) They all eventually dissapate

Everything else is conjecture and speculation.


The whole gulf of mexico shoreline should be vigilant now to say any one area is "safe" is fool hardy.

What on this planet is a parabolic curve???

[HollynLA]

What on this planet is a parabolic curve???

Isn't that a part of the flux capacitor?

[shawn67]

Thank you for making me feel so welcome

[lacyclone]

Hang in there Shawn! I'm new too, and it can be intimidating sometimes when the tempers and sarcasm heats up. Don't take it personal.....everyone is just stressed. Keep posting...

[hightide]

Thanks Shawn! Welcome to the board.

[HollynLA]

Just trying to lighten the mood, don't take it personally. I honestly just don't know what it is.

[Eyes2theSkies]

i believe a parabolic curve has something to do with escape velicity or following the periphery of a ridge

[Ixolib]

Hang in there Shawn! I'm new too, and it can be intimidating sometimes when the tempers and sarcasm heats up. Don't take it personal.....everyone is just stressed. Keep posting...

Yeah Shawn, actually the folks in here are pretty good people!! While probably not a great excuse, it is obviously a heated time. Anyway, welcome to S2K and PLEASE hang in there. The season's gonna be (is!!) a blast...

[shawn67]

Folks,

This is my first post but we have look at things in more than the KBYX, 46 minute increments. Hurricanes act on physics guided by certain forces. I had a wx professor at Ball State tell me the only two things are absolutely true about hurricanes:

1.) They all eventually act on a parabolic curve

2.) They all eventually dissapate

Everything else is conjecture and speculation.


The whole gulf of mexico shoreline should be vigilant now to say any one area is "safe" is fool hardy.

What on this planet is a parabolic curve???

Brent:

Simply do a google search of Hurricane and parabolic and you will see

Shawn

[Brent]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Parabolic+curve

I'm too tired to read this now...

Just tell us where you think it landfalls.

[soonertwister]

1.) They all eventually act on a parabolic curve

Your post is correct in a general sense. But there are countless instances where the "parabolic curve was so amplified as to be essentially almost a straight line. Hurricanes are naturally pulled poleward by well-understood forces of nature, but if something natural blocks that turn, it won't go that way. In fact it isn't uncommon for a hurricane to never turn poleward on a parabolic curve, but to follow local existing conditions to its demise.

We've had hurricanes strike Central America and turn around and hit Florida, and then run south and die over Argentina.

We've had hurricanes run like an arrow from the central tropical Atlantic into the east coast of the U.S.A.

We've had Gilbert, the strongest recorded hurricane in the Atlantic, run a straight run into the Yucatan, then recurve into Monterrey and kill hundreds there.

We've had hurricanes strike Texas, remain tropical depressions, move offshore in the Carolinas, gain strength in the Atlantic, then turn around and hit Florida or die just offshore.

In short, the possibilities of hurricanes are virtually endless. Your basic premise is correct if all other conditions are neutral. But they never are.

DISCLAIMER: This post is simply my opinion.

[Ixolib]

1.) They all eventually act on a parabolic curve

Your post is correct in a general sense. But there are countless instances where the "parabolic curve was so amplified as to be essentially almost a straight line. Hurricanes are naturally pulled poleward by well-understood forces of nature, but if something natural blocks that turn, it won't go that way. In fact it isn't uncommon for a hurricane to never turn poleward on a parabolic curve, but to follow local existing conditions to its demise.

We've had hurricanes strike Central America and turn around and hit Florida, and then run south and die over Argentina.

We've had hurricanes run like an arrow from the central tropical Atlantic into the east coast of the U.S.A.

We've had Gilbert, the strongest recorded hurricane in the Atlantic, run a straight run into the Yucatan, then recurve into Monterrey and kill hundreds there.

We've had hurricanes strike Texas, remain tropical depressions, move offshore in the Carolinas, gain strength in the Atlantic, then turn around and hit Florida or die just offshore.

In short, the possibilities of hurricanes are virtually endless. Your basic premise is correct if all other conditions are neutral. But they never are.

DISCLAIMER: This post is simply my opinion.

And let's not forget Elena's rambling back and forth across the northern GOM.

[southerngreen]

big worry here is that everyone on the west central florida coast will go to sleep thinking all is well only to wake up to one big surprise 'cause the local mets are saying 'forget about it'. it ain't over til it's over.

[shawn67]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Parabolic+curve

I'm too tired to read this now...

Just tell us where you think it landfalls.

Im not that smart I simply want to watch and learn from the experts in regards to projections. Think about what an amazing time we live in where we can see all this data in REAL-TIME and as a community analyze and discuss it!!!!

Shawn

[wxwatcher91]

ok parab-whatever curve I THINK is a fancy name saying that most hurricanes start heading towards the west at low latitudes and then head north and then more to the east at the higher latitudes... at least in the northern hemisphere.

welcome shawn! im a couple days new too! tell us your opinion on the track and also your -removed-... for most of us its the same thing

[soonertwister]

And let's not forget Elena's rambling back and forth across the northern GOM.

Ixolib, is Elena the one that reformed a center a couple hundred miles north, from south of Cuba to north of Cuba, ran north, turned west, stalled, went east, then turned due north, hit the Florida panhandle after taking a huge gulp of dry air, and became a footnote in hurricane history?

If she is, I have another comment to make about that particular storm...

DISCLAIMER: This post is only my opinion.

[shawn67]

ok parab-whatever curve I THINK is a fancy name saying that most hurricanes start heading towards the west at low latitudes and then head north and then more to the east at the higher latitudes... at least in the northern hemisphere.

welcome shawn! im a couple days new too! tell us your opinion on the track and also your -removed-... for most of us its the same thing

Wishcast? Hits the US coast as a TS and is forced NW by a tremedously strong Bermuda high perssure ridge which forces the extra tropical remnants to Kansas City Realilty: Gulfport, MS, Sunday evening, 942 mb, 110 kts.

Shawn