Steve Lyons and shift west

#21 Postby **wx247** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:00 pm

Either way we will know a lot more about the NHC's forecasted track within an hour. This thing isn't going too far west... but every step in that direction is more of a concern for NOLA and company.

jkt21787 · #22 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:02 pm

Ixolib wrote:
drudd1 wrote:If this is the case, after Dennis goes back over water and begins to intensify, I would imagine the upper level flow would begin to once again assert itself in influencing the steering?

By then, though, wouldn't the recent westward step have already taken place, thus impacting its direction contrary to previous/current forecasts?

Yes most likely I assume, because its not going to move east. The landfall area will likely be a bit further west at this point. JMO, nothing official of course.

#23 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:02 pm

drudd1 wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Earlier Lyons said after talking with Dr. Forbes that the westward movement of Dennis could be because on Doppler Echo Tops have gone down from 50,000 ft to 30,000 ft, thus the storm is being steered by lower level flow

This is SUCH a good point and I'm so glad you brought it up. The ridge is much stronger at 850 mb (for instance) than at 500 mb (relatively speaking). Will be interesting to see the NAM - it is already much stronger with the 500mb ridge over the far western Atlantic, and heights with the trough in the Northeast are higher (as in weaker) and further north than the 12z run had indicated - could be a sign...

If this is the case, after Dennis goes back over water and begins to intensify, I would imagine the upper level flow would begin to once again assert itself in influencing the steering?

Yes, once deep convection redevelops.

NewOrleans · #24 Postby **NewOrleans** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:02 pm

I have to think Dennis is barely holding on to Cat. 2 status. thankfully.

reeef · #25 Postby **reeef** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:03 pm

i jsut read that the low over us is weaking... what are the chances of him coming our way.... tx

#26 Postby **MGC** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:03 pm

Dennis looks to be below Cat 3 right now. The hurricane has shifted westward the last couple of hours and should now pass very near Havana. If Lyons is right and the lower level flow is steering Dennis than the cone might have to be shifted to the left. Hopefully though the time Dennis has spent over Cuba has disrupted the inner core and significant re-intensification will not happen......MGC

rtd2 · #27 Postby **rtd2** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:04 pm

Ixolib wrote:
drudd1 wrote:If this is the case, after Dennis goes back over water and begins to intensify, I would imagine the upper level flow would begin to once again assert itself in influencing the steering?

By then, though, wouldn't the recent westward step have already taken place, thus impacting its direction contrary to previous/current forecasts?

Good Point and UNTIL it begins to Regain Some of its Vertical Stacking and CDO its going to Get Blown around at Mid-levels Like a Paper Airplane!

#28 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:05 pm

But here's what I don't see. The upper trof has progressed pretty far eastward into Louisiana as per a recent upper flow link in another thread. Based on CSU's extended WV loop, there seems to be a reinforcing shot into the trof dropping south through Texas. I don't see any signs of that trof splitting, backing or lifting out. Therefore, I don't see anyway Dennis can get past 88 in 48 hours time. If he had more time, maybe. If there is a quick change in the upper dynamcis, maybe (not discounting that he might be driven by the lower level steering flow as well as interaction with land at this time)

For whatever reason, Dennis is an enigmatic storm to me. I wish I had more of a handle on it than I do. As I said on saintsreport, I could buy into any argument of landfall between Long Beach/Gulfport and Panama City Beach. But except for yesterday's gun-to-the-head Harrison & Jackson Co's, MS, I still don't have a landfall call for Dennis.

Steve :?:

#29 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:06 pm

gboudx wrote:
WhiteShirt wrote:would that put the upper Texas coast in the cone?

I doubt that far west. If you look at water vapor loops, you can see a SW->NE flow off the Texas coast.

Exactly...it's going to get pinched b/w the high and the upper low...so even if it does move WNW for a while...it will hook due north at the end. So...whether it's NW then NNW for a while...or WNW then N for a while...it kinda all works out the same.

#30 Postby **patsmsg** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:08 pm

Hey, Reef, I don't take offense.

Whats' funny is how everybody wigs out over the use of emoticons. If you had used a :wink:

or a

I doubt anyone would have said much. The :grrr:

got you in trouble. To me that's hilarious. Maybe everyone is just getting a bit stressed from all of the drama over the past couple of weeks. It's understandable.

Everybody stay cool 8-)

We've got a nasty storm to watch here...

jbgreig · #31 Postby **jbgreig** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:10 pm

reeef wrote:YES!!! BRING IT ON.

Cut him/her some slack. Maybe he/she just bought a generator, transfer switch, 50 gallons of gasoline, and would love to prove to his/her wife/husband that it was a good move.

Wait, no, that would be me..... INSTALLED TODAY!!!

BRING IT ON!!!! j/k

#32 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:12 pm

reeef wrote:i jsut read that the low over us is weaking... what are the chances of him coming our way.... tx

Where'd you read that? Can you copy/paste or provide a link? That could be big.

frederic79 · #33 Postby **frederic79** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:20 pm

I said in another thread that ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL regarding the official forecast track, a 50-100 miles westerly shift over Cuba could significantly impact the final landfall of Dennis. That looks to be happening now.

#34 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:32 pm

frederic79 wrote:I said in another thread that ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL regarding the official forecast track, a 50-100 miles westerly shift over Cuba could significantly impact the final landfall of Dennis. That looks to be happening now.

The geometery would indicate that - a minor change at the center
has dramatic effects in the arc (forecast path)

reeef · #35 Postby **reeef** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:34 pm

your all confusing me!. na im 15 not married just we got a boat we cant sell so if it sinks INSURANCE MONEY = new mastercraft for me.

Foladar · #36 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:55 pm

reeef wrote:your all confusing me!. na im 15 not married just we got a boat we cant sell so if it sinks INSURANCE MONEY = new mastercraft for me.

It's not going to Texas.

jax · #37 Postby **jax** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:56 pm

It looks like NHC has shifted a little west...
I suspect the 11pm discussion will suggest
that "because of the westward track the last
few ours we may have to move a little further
west... wait to see what Dennis will do once
in the GOM"

JMHO

thetraveler · #38 Postby **thetraveler** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:57 pm

heck i thought it was because he hadnt been through a cane, I was gonna suggest maybe his parents could buy him a ticket to pcola or nola and he could experience it first hand, but heck its just for insurance, that makes sense. not :roll:

#39 Postby **drudd1** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:58 pm

reeef wrote:your all confusing me!. na im 15 not married just we got a boat we cant sell so if it sinks INSURANCE MONEY = new mastercraft for me.

As a lifetime boat owner, I can tell you not to count on getting enough insurance money to buy a new boat. A few thousand folks here in Florida found that out. Also, if you guys ever get smacked in the mouth by a major cane, the boat will be the least of your worries.

thetraveler · #40 Postby **thetraveler** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:01 pm

amen, I was traveling through Baytown Texas today and wondered how much would be left with a cat 5. It was not a good feeling...

Steve Lyons and shift west

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