THE OFFICIAL DENNIS LANDFALL PREDICTION THREAD

[charliesc]

I have been coming to this site a long time, even before I started any minimal posting. I love to see what everybody has to say. I hardly ever make a prediction, because if I ever came close, it would be a fluke! There is one thing I would like to say, however. hurricanes don't always lose their punch right after landfall. Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston, SC; however, there was extensive damage done well inland, as well, even into other states. Granted, the area of landfall is of grave concern; however, other areas need to be wary of the track this one will take once he makes landfall.

[TSmith274]

Tuesday night, I said that Dennis would make landfall in about the same spot as Ivan.(pretty proud of myself) Looks like that's where he wants to go. I'm sticking with that.

[djtil]

a little east of panama city, strong cat2/min cat 3

[vbhoutex]

Ok I will jump in now. I think it has been pretty obvious in other posts in other threads that I have made where I am taking it. To make it official though, the range is from Pascagoula, MS to Panama City, FL with a pinpoint landfall of Hurlburt Field or Mary Esther, FL just to the West of Fort Walton Beach, at a CAT3/CAT4 intensity. I am however hoping that the heat content in the GOM is lower than anticipated which could weaken Dennis some where he has been today.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Ok I will jump in now. I think it has been pretty obvious in other posts in other threads that I have made where I am taking it. To make it official though, the range is from Pascagoula, MS to Panama City, FL with a pinpoint landfall of Hurlburt Field or Mary Esther, FL just to the West of Fort Walton Beach, at a CAT3/CAT4 intensity. I am however hoping that the heat content in the GOM is lower than anticipated which could weaken Dennis some where he has been today.

The SSTs in the NE Gulf are the lowest the Gulf has to offer.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... fmex.c.gif

[cajungal]

Still sticking to a Gulf Shores/Pensacola landfall. Stuck with that landfall since Dennis was named. I will adjust if I feel I need to. But, it has been my gut feeling from day 1 before even watching the NHC track or any scientific data.

[Innotech]

Gulf Shores and Mobile, AL sticking to my initial prediction as a strong Cat 2.

[frederic79]

I've been silent until now. I won't predict where Dennis will go but I'll point out something that I nobody's seemed to have noticed. Dennis went ashore in Cuba pretty much where it was forecast to. But its apparent motion on Key West long-range doppler, Dennis will exit Cuba at or just north of Havana. That is not even close to where the models, save the UKMET, call for entry into the Gulf (about 100 miles farther east). I don't know exactly how that would affect the future track, but it should have some significant bearing on Dennis' US landfall, all other things being equal. I'd like to hear comments from the pro mets here, if possible.

[Innotech]

I've been silent until now. I won't predict where Dennis will go but I'll point out something that I nobody's seemed to have noticed. Dennis went ashore in Cuba pretty much where it was forecast to. But its apparent motion on Key West long-range doppler, Dennis will exit Cuba at or just north of Havana. That is not even close to where the models, save the UKMET, call for entry into the Gulf (about 100 miles farther east). I don't know exactly how that would affect the future track, but it should have some significant bearing on Dennis' US landfall, all other things being equal. I'd like to hear comments from the pro mets here, if possible.

gulf shores is a bit west of forecasted landall, which is why Im sitll sticking to it. Its been a good guess htus far IMO and I have no reason to change it. I also noticed the trend west of track lately and that only reinforces my bleief. however I htink Bastardi might have it just a bit too far west. We shall see, although I have a friend who knows a meteorologist osmewhere in Texas who has been correct in pretty much every forecast he has made, and hes calling for a N.O. hit. Im not too confident in that but its something to consider. Theres always a first itme to be absolutely wrong too.

[wxwatcher91]

ok I've read under some other subjects earlier about the recent westward movement and I just want to say that anybody that goes as far as to say it is west of the NHC forecast track is wrong... Dennis is actually moving RIGHT ON TRACK... the only reason it looks west of the track is because this is actually the first Dennis HAS moved right on track...

just a quick intensity note: holy cow Dennis has completely died! the small area of moderate convection that remains is only 100 to 150miles wide! I'm surprised it still HAS 115mph winds... it'll be interesting to see the intensity after Cuba

[patsmsg]

I have been coming to this site a long time, even before I started any minimal posting. I love to see what everybody has to say. I hardly ever make a prediction, because if I ever came close, it would be a fluke! There is one thing I would like to say, however. hurricanes don't always lose their punch right after landfall. Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston, SC; however, there was extensive damage done well inland, as well, even into other states. Granted, the area of landfall is of grave concern; however, other areas need to be wary of the track this one will take once he makes landfall.

Excellent point!

[roomer]

Agreed! Regardless of "wobbles" in the system, Dennis is pretty much on point with the NHC forcast track. With the tight cluster of the models, I'm going to stick with a Florida panhandle hit.

(I'm agreeing with wxwatcher91 statement)

[wxwatcher91]

comparing the 8pm and 10pm position estimates... Dennis has moved 0.2 north and 0.3 south... so just west of NW

[frederic79]

Maybe I'm wrong, but since 5pm Dennis has moved .3 degrees north and .8 degrees west over the course of three official advisories (don't shoot the messenger). At least for now, that's more west than north.

[frederic79]

Maybe I'm wrong, but since 5pm Dennis has moved .3 degrees north and .8 degrees west over the course of three official advisories (don't shoot the messenger). At least for now, that's more west than north.

[Stormtrack03]

I'm gonna take a wild guess and say Gulf Shores, AL.

[jasons2k]

I've been silent until now. I won't predict where Dennis will go but I'll point out something that I nobody's seemed to have noticed. Dennis went ashore in Cuba pretty much where it was forecast to. But its apparent motion on Key West long-range doppler, Dennis will exit Cuba at or just north of Havana. That is not even close to where the models, save the UKMET, call for entry into the Gulf (about 100 miles farther east). I don't know exactly how that would affect the future track, but it should have some significant bearing on Dennis' US landfall, all other things being equal. I'd like to hear comments from the pro mets here, if possible.

I'm not a pro met., but Joe B. had a pretty good explanation about this today.

I'm sticking with my prediction above - at least for now.

[Innotech]

Im not changing my prediction regardless of outcome. Ill eat crow if need be but Im stickin to my gut feeling on this one.

[vbhoutex]

I've been silent until now. I won't predict where Dennis will go but I'll point out something that I nobody's seemed to have noticed. Dennis went ashore in Cuba pretty much where it was forecast to. But its apparent motion on Key West long-range doppler, Dennis will exit Cuba at or just north of Havana. That is not even close to where the models, save the UKMET, call for entry into the Gulf (about 100 miles farther east). I don't know exactly how that would affect the future track, but it should have some significant bearing on Dennis' US landfall, all other things being equal. I'd like to hear comments from the pro mets here, if possible.

I'm not a pro met., but Joe B. had a pretty good explanation about this today.

I'm sticking with my prediction above - at least for now.

Not a pro-met, but I am sticking with my prediction above because Dennis is going to be moving around the SWestern periphery of the ridge and being picked up by the incoming trough also. So far he has gone just about where I thought he would except for being N of Jamaica and closer to the S Cuba coast than I thought. I had previously stated that Dennis would exit over or just to the West of Havana and he came out right over Havana so I am sticking with my thoughts unless someone shows me something to change that "road" that is being set out in front of Dennis.

[rightbayou]

1:30 Am CDT Is that just another wobble, or the beginning of the N turn- last few frames look dang near 360 true....any thoughts?