Something to watch for...

[jasons2k]

Looking at Key West radar loops -

As Dennis pulls away from Cuba let's put Joe B.'s theory to the test - that the frictional pull on the land would have Dennis hug the coast for a bit before finally 'releasing' out into the Gulf.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[mobilebay]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

[djtil]

appears to be just maintaining direction right off the coast.

[baitism]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

I dont think you 2 are talking about the same thing....

[jasons2k]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

Yep, and for the last 2 days the UKMET has been the most accurate.

Keep in mind some models like the GFDL are fed off of the GFS, so some of them will always cluster.

[mobilebay]

All I'm saying is four 00Z models have run tonight. All four have landfall in Mobile, Alabama. I've already posted the GFS, NOGAps, Canadian, and now here is the UKMET. All four of these globals is not going to miss by that much.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kbyx.shtml

[jasons2k]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

I dont think you 2 are talking about the same thing....

kinda wondered that myself....

[mobilebay]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

Yep, and for the last 2 days the UKMET has been the most accurate.

Keep in mind some models like the GFDL are fed off of the GFS, so some of them will always cluster.

Here is the 00Z UKMET= MOBILE ALABAMA

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[jasons2k]

All I'm saying is four 00Z models have run tonight. All four have landfall in Mobile, Alabama. I've already posted the GFS, NOGAps, Canadian, and now here is the UKMET. All four of these globals is not going to miss by that much.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kbyx.shtml

Vegas odds are that you are right about that....just never say never....

[mobilebay]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

I dont think you 2 are talking about the same thing....

kinda wondered that myself....

I'm on the same page. Just trying very nicely to say that I don't think all the models and the NHC are wrong, thats all.

[baitism]

He wasnt talking about models or any of that. He was talking about how storms tend to hug the coast, it has to do with some physics of the storm....I dont really know for sure.

[jasons2k]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

I dont think you 2 are talking about the same thing....

kinda wondered that myself....

I'm on the same page. Just trying very nicely to say that I don't think all the models and the NHC are wrong, thats all.

Hey man, I'm with ya. No worries.

Like I said, chances are that is indeed correct.

All I'm trying to say, in a nice way as well, that there are always the intangibles to consider. If the models were perfect, we would only need one, not 8+ different ones.

Anyway, for your sake, hope it's not Mobile. Good luck on this one.

[mobilebay]

Look even if this happened, The weakness would still be in the NORTHERN GOM. Not the Northwestern GOM, not Florida. The models so far are in excellent agreement on a Biloxi to Destin Landfall. The hurricane center has been saying this for two days now.

I dont think you 2 are talking about the same thing....

kinda wondered that myself....

I'm on the same page. Just trying very nicely to say that I don't think all the models and the NHC are wrong, thats all.

Hey man, I'm with ya. No worries.

Like I said, chances are that is indeed correct.
Thank You.

All I'm trying to say, in a nice way as well, that there are always the intangibles to consider. If the models were perfect, we would only need one, not 8+ different ones.

Anyway, for your sake, hope it's not Mobile. Good luck on this one.