Shear in northern Gulf

[The Big Dog]

20-25 kt shear in the northern GOM -- is this forecast to stay or not?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No it will be pushed to the north by the upper high this powerful storm has formed.

[Droop12]

I believe (or hope) that there may be some light shear around before landfall. Look at prior storms that have all made landfall in this area and you'll see, most tend to weaken about 6-12 hours before landfall. Anyone think I have a bad case of wishful thinking?

[Sean in New Orleans]

No it will be pushed to the north by the upper high this powerful storm has formed.

You are correct. An elementary view of satellite clearly shows the expansiveness of the high pressure that is on top of Dennis that is clearing a path for him...

[Anonymous]

I believe (or hope) that there may be some light shear around before landfall. Look at prior storms that have all made landfall in this area and you'll see, most tend to weaken about 6-12 hours before landfall.

Yes, in September and October after the coastal waters have cooled and cold fronts have come down. June/July/August are prime conditions for Camille, Andrew, Charley, Audrey type hurricanes.

[LSU2001]

your supposed to be asleep mike

[btangy]

There will be some light to moderate south/southwesterly shear over Dennis as it enters the N Gulf courtesy an upper level trough over the W GOM. If Dennis' inner core blows up and generates a healthy amount of convection, then it will be able to fight off the effects of the shear by repelling it with its outflow. Whether any dry air will be able to work into the core like with what occurred with Cindy is questionable. Given the large circulation of Dennis, it may take awhile for any dry air to have an impact as well.