Dennis is not a Tropical Storm

[birdwomn]

Derek, there you go clouding a perfectly good argument with facts!

Now we will have to find something else to argue about! (Just kidding)

Seriously, though...any thoughts on how fast and how far Dennis will intensify?

I am not a met, pro or otherwise, but I had not anticipated the storm staying over land quite so long. So in my opinion, Dennis lost more than I initially expected, but maintained core circulation quite well.

[wayoutfront]

he's recovered quicker than i though he would

[Sanibel]

Just got pounded by worst winds yet. Palms were whipping.


OK, winds vibrating the house now. Palm was rocking violently...

[Thunder44]

I can't imagine this storm having a 974mb pressure over warm water and not being a hurricane.

[Sanibel]

Wrapping cold tops on west side. Better defined eye. Just a matter of the winds catching up now...

[MBismyPlayground]

Wrapping cold tops on west side. Better defined eye. Just a matter of the winds catching up now...

He sure seems to be getting his act back together rather quickly. Stay Safe

[wafbwx]

a quick little lesson for all

winds are what make a hurricane. The pressure is meaningless for the classification.

based upon the recon data, Dennis is likely a cat 1 hurricane with winds in the 70-75KT range

This is very debateable. Pressure changes and differences are what drives winds. And has been discussed before, recon only samples a small fraction of the storm. Central pressure measurements are much more accurate than the max wind readings that are reported by reconaissance. It's not a knock on the recon, but there's no way for them to sample anywhere close to a representative sample of the storm. On the other hand, measuring the central pressure is much easier and can at least give us a good idea of wind trends, not necessarily exact values.

If recon were part of a statistical analysis in a scientific study, I don't even think the sample size would fly!

[Gorky]

Central pressure can give you a good estimate of the speed, but it the pressure gradient which is the important thing. Even with a low pressureat the centre, if the gradient isn't too sharp, you aren't going to get the winds you'd expect and the storm [b]IS[//b] classified by it's wind speed.

[wafbwx]

Central pressure can give you a good estimate of the speed, but it the pressure gradient which is the important thing. Even with a low pressureat the centre, if the gradient isn't too sharp, you aren't going to get the winds you'd expect and the storm [b]IS[//b] classified by it's wind speed.

Agreed. Typically, the environment around a hurricane is going to be a bit slower to change than the storm itself. That's why I firmly believe if you see pressures rising or falling at a decent clip, it's obvious which way the winds will be trending. If recon were flying into a storm once a day and we were trying to determine trends that would be one thing, but with a number of measures of central pressure each day, it's hard to argue with it being a better measure of the trends of a storm's strength than the actual winds measured by a plane. Can anyone tell me that measures of central pressure are NOT more accurate than max. winds in a storm? Again...the planes are measuring a minute portion of the storm's winds (which, by the way, are much more variable than pressure in a given period of time) and are likely missing the maximum winds on a regular basis. Also, there have been a number of studies showing that strong winds aloft often translate down to the surface. While a reduction of flight-level winds for a surface estimate is reasonable overall, it really doesn't account for localized gusts that become quite important if they impact the area where you are living.

[wafbwx]

And one final note...I'm not trying to argue that a storm is classified by winds...that's obvious. What I'm saying is that pressure trends give you a MUCH better idea of a storm's evolving structure than the few wind measurements we get from a plane and/or satellite and instrument estimates.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We got a bombing hurricane on that satellite. The eye is starting to clear with very deep convection wraping around. A area to the southwest quad has turned black. I expect this will sky rocket over the next 6 hours.

I think we will have a major with an 12 hours.


This is not offical forcast please see the nhc/noaa/nws/hrd/ or any of the many offical places for the weather...

[Derek Ortt]

the flight level winds are not just a small sample though. I believe those are measured by doppler radar on board the aircraft. The dropsonde winds are just a small sample; however, with 66KT being reported on the latest pass, makes me believe that the boundary layer was severely disrupted by the passage over Cuba

[rtd2]

he's recovered quicker than i though he would

THIS is going to be a MUCH larger Storm (impact) Now!

[Air Force Met]

based on the recon and satellite i wouldnt say its "ignorant" to make the case that its really a strong TS/min Cat 1. it may strengthen very quickly but the pressure is way up, the winds way down due to Cuba.

the SHIPS model continues to be very bearish when it comes to strengthening....fwiw.

Sorry...but I would. There are no 972 MB tropical storms.

[Brent]

LOL People...

I'm sorry but 973 mb is in no way, shape, or form a tropical storm.

[Stratusxpeye]

Dennis is now a CAT 2 With winds in the 105mph range. So I dont think hes a ts

[wxsouth]

Had to chime in the pressure vs. wind argument. Yes, the winds are generated by the pressure gradient so the central pressure is important. However, most important in determining the max winds is the pressure gradient in the eyewall. This is one of the things that makes hurricanes so much different than mid-lat systems. You would not expect hurricane force sfc winds from a 990mb mid-lat storm. In a hurricane, the convection concentrates the pressure gradient in the eyewall...thus the strong winds we see. When the storm moves over land...this central convection is disrupted...the radius of maximum winds spreads outward and weakens. Now that the storm is back out over water...the winds will lag the central pressure initially until the central convection reorganizes and pulls the radius of maximum winds back towards the center...think about the ice skater analogy. Recon winds can be considered a good sample because they are well above the boundary layer and the winds are much more uniform than you find at the surface...much less gusty. If the recon penetrates the strongest part of the eyewall in the NE quad then they've probably got a pretty good sample of the strongest winds.