Water Vapor

Sean in New Orleans · #1 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:25 am

Seems pretty telling. The high over the system is very evident. And thanhere is the trough..when will it (or if ) catch this system and move it NE into the Pensacola area. Steering currents aren't quite as powerful as I'd like to see. Dennis will, likely, dance aroung under theselouds one day soonn..Dennis has been a headahce for quite a few people, IMO,

rtd2 · #2 Postby **rtd2** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:43 am

Looks like Eye is Clearly back...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Innotech · #3 Postby **Innotech** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:02 am

and gone again...an ERC is occurring. This storm is pulsing, ready to bomb again. Look how quickly hte CDO reestablished itself!

#4 Postby **loon** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:05 am

hrm...yanno, if he crosses UNDER 25N at 85W, he will be a little west off track, and south and west of the models. I for one don't know how the models got that good a consencous with all the variables that are flying around out there right now....crazy stuff....

rtd2 · #5 Postby **rtd2** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:07 am

loon wrote:hrm...yanno, if he crosses UNDER 25N at 85W, he will be a little west off track, and south and west of the models. I for one don't know how the models got that good a consencous with all the variables that are flying around out there right now....crazy stuff....

Good point While You at it Look at this I posted in Analysis Forum .... look at this WV and explain the Clouds N of 30* Racing off to the NE-NNE does this Imply any Future Track mvt.?
HP still looks Strong but is there a Squeeze Play setting up? Sorta Like Ivan NNE near Coast? THANKS!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

wxwatcher91 · #6 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:12 am

I'm keeping my prediction at the pan handle to even the big bend...
I think Dennis will slow down over the Gulf and be pushed to the NNE by the trough then strike Monday afternoon

baitism · #7 Postby **baitism** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:24 am

Could be. Im looking at the loop and I see an absense of steering currents. If that trough kicks dennis out N then Pensacola is under the gun. I wonder if the high dropping down will start to influence any models...

At this point even a slight shift west is bad news, as the SST's are MUCH higher.

BTW, can someone tell me where the NHC thinks the shear will come from?

Nimbus · #8 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:52 am

The trough is still there this morning providing a flow from the south west to the north east over western Louisiana.
It won't take much recurve at all to keep Dennis eye east of NOLA.
The NHC feels that the trough flow will still be there to provide both shear and steering when Dennis reaches the upper gulf.

#9 Postby **Deenac813** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:07 am

That image is just in incredible! Almost the whole state of florida is getting rain etc from Dennis! I could not believe that I was awaken this morning at 3:30 am by the noise of the winds around my house. Dennis is a monster!

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:14 am

rtd2 wrote:look at this WV and explain the Clouds N of 30* Racing off to the NE-NNE does this Imply any Future Track mvt.?
HP still looks Strong but is there a Squeeze Play setting up? Sorta Like Ivan NNE near Coast? THANKS!

I've been watching this the last few days and mentioned my opinion on the ULL across TX, LA and now W-GOM in the chatroom [and here].

Since the high moved offshore more and the ULL has dug a little, the westward movement we've seen, would appear to abate at least some in the coming hours.

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