More West Track???

PTPatrick · #21 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:27 am

um, well there was damage in Mobile in Jackson counties. Not AS many blue rooves, but lots of tree damage, no pofer for 2-3 weeks for some Mobilians. I lost mine in Pascagoula MS for 4 days

#22 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:31 am

12z NAM guidance would give credence to a further west track w/ it's stronger ridge to the north and east of the storm:

Now it's back to a New Orleans storm...hmm...

sunny · #23 Postby **sunny** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:32 am

Okay, it can't do that Purdue.

#24 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:33 am

sunny wrote:Okay, it can't do that Purdue.

NOOOO.... this is my worst fear... that if this storm were to change course, that it would catch people here off guard.

sunny · #25 Postby **sunny** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:34 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
sunny wrote:Okay, it can't do that Purdue.

NOOOO.... this is my worst fear... that if this storm were to change course, that it would catch people here off guard.

Not to mention the fact that it would now be too late for us to get the heck out of here.

#26 Postby **loon** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:35 am

Change course? Off guard? Isn't that area under the warning area already? Although its west of thinking, the warnings are out there, it shouldn't be a surprise....

T-man · #27 Postby **T-man** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:36 am

John Gumm here says the Nam model is junk

sprink52 · #28 Postby **sprink52** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:37 am

A hit on NOLA would wreck this country economically. :roll:

sunny · #29 Postby **sunny** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:38 am

loon wrote:Change course? Off guard? Isn't that area under the warning area already? Although its west of thinking, the warnings are out there, it shouldn't be a surprise....

We are under a TROPICAL STROM WARNING. Not a hurricane warning.

goodlife · #30 Postby **goodlife** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:42 am

don't you think we've advanced enough technologically that there really aren't any major surprises in where a storm will make landfall?? I mean sure...maybe a few miles either way...but not a major shift like that!!

#31 Postby **loon** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:44 am

heh, okay, agreed. How about this then, NOLA has been in or around the cone for some time. It wouldn't matter regardless, NOLA was a bad idea as far building a city, and alot of these storms once in the GOM when landfall can actually be predicted pretty well *(sometimes)* hit within 36-48 hours, if not less. Our coastal cities are too large and you just don't have 40-50 hrs to get out.

As far as the warnings, I guess if it was me, and I had a tropical storm warning, I wouldn't be surprised if it went to Hurricane warning, or surprised if we took a hit, but apparently that is just me as it has apparently taken some of the NOLA/LA posters by surprise..

cheers,
loon

#32 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:47 am

That track is still within the cone from the 5 a.m. update, so it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. If that track verifies, the only saving grace is the cold pool left behind by what was likely Hurricane Cindy.

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave ridge building ahead of the upper low currently situated over TX/LA. I was trying not to hone in on the exact track of the NAM surface low, but rather wanted to emphasize that the NAM depicts a slightly further west upper low over TX than in previous runs, and also shows considerably more ridging at 500 mb to the north and east of the storm. These ideas would tend to support a further west track, but more support is necessary from other models before such a shift is made. If no HurrWarn is issued for NOLA at the 11 a.m. update, once could certainly be hoisted by 1 p.m. given enough support from the GFS and other 12z guidance.

sunny · #33 Postby **sunny** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:48 am

loon wrote:heh, okay, agreed. How about this then, NOLA has been in or around the cone for some time. It wouldn't matter regardless, NOLA was a bad idea as far building a city, and alot of these storms once in the GOM when landfall can actually be predicted pretty well *(sometimes)* hit within 36-48 hours, if not less. Our coastal cities are too large and you just don't have 40-50 hrs to get out.

As far as the warnings, I guess if it was me, and I had a tropical storm warning, I wouldn't be surprised if it went to Hurricane warning, or surprised if we took a hit, but apparently that is just me as it has apparently taken some of the NOLA/LA posters by surprise..

cheers,
loon

Yes, we have been in and around the cone for days now. But we have also been told that in all likelihood, we would not get a direct hit. Yes, you prepare. But you start to feel a little more comfortable and then you see something like this. What would you do?

otowntiger · #34 Postby **otowntiger** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:49 am

PTPatrick wrote:um, well there was damage in Mobile in Jackson counties. Not AS many blue rooves, but lots of tree damage, no pofer for 2-3 weeks for some Mobilians. I lost mine in Pascagoula MS for 4 days

Its all relative. We lost power here in Orlando from Charley for 6 days and we are over 100 miles inland from the point of landfall. Orlando International Airport clocked winds up to 105. Tampa on the other hand about 60 miles to our south west got virtually nothing. With Ivan just a few miles to their east Mobile didn't get winds much over minimal hurricane force. I guess all that I'm saying is in small storms such as these there can be a big difference in impact depending upon the exact track. Another obvious huge factor is the strength of the storm. Right now I'd be surprised if Dennis got back above cat 2 by landfall. In conclusion its my opinion that Mobile is not going to get "hammered" regardless like a previous poster stated. A lot of factors need to come together for that to happen.

#35 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:51 am

I don't see what you all are seeing. All the tracks I look at are pretty much the same thing last night? Can someone point me to the correct track?

#36 Postby **LSU2001** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:00 am

skysummit wrote:I don't see what you all are seeing. All the tracks I look at are pretty much the same thing last night? Can someone point me to the correct track?

The track it currently NORTHWEST last hour .2 north .2 west I think what people are talking about is a continuation of a nortwest track rather than a more northerly turn. I don't know for sure so everyone can correct me if I am wrong.

Tim

#37 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am

lsu2001 wrote:
skysummit wrote:I don't see what you all are seeing. All the tracks I look at are pretty much the same thing last night? Can someone point me to the correct track?

The track it currently NORTHWEST last hour .2 north .2 west I think what people are talking about is a continuation of a nortwest track rather than a more northerly turn. I don't know for sure so everyone can correct me if I am wrong.

Tim

Ok, I saw that. I thought they were talking about something drastic.

#38 Postby **LSU2001** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:04 am

well if the northwest motion continues and we don't get the north turn it will be quite drastic for landfall. But for the life of me I can't see a straight northwest track without some recurve to the north.
TIm

#39 Postby **loon** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:07 am

sunny wrote:
loon wrote:heh, okay, agreed. How about this then, NOLA has been in or around the cone for some time. It wouldn't matter regardless, NOLA was a bad idea as far building a city, and alot of these storms once in the GOM when landfall can actually be predicted pretty well *(sometimes)* hit within 36-48 hours, if not less. Our coastal cities are too large and you just don't have 40-50 hrs to get out.

As far as the warnings, I guess if it was me, and I had a tropical storm warning, I wouldn't be surprised if it went to Hurricane warning, or surprised if we took a hit, but apparently that is just me as it has apparently taken some of the NOLA/LA posters by surprise..

cheers,
loon

Yes, we have been in and around the cone for days now. But we have also been told that in all likelihood, we would not get a direct hit. Yes, you prepare. But you start to feel a little more comfortable and then you see something like this. What would you do?

I don't know, I live in Texas, without the "under sea level" problem, however we are close to sea level out here. Well, lets just hope he doesn't make it that far, because I'm sure we can agree, there is no time for evacs now. Another good thing is they don't expect it to be a major, which may or may not matter in NOLA's case....

#40 Postby **LSU2001** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:15 am

Who doesn't expect a Major? I think it is quite possible due to the NHC
11:00 discussion.
TIM

DENNIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A COOL EDDY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WARMER WATER IN 12-18 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THE SSTS AHEAD OF DENNIS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL...SO THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS IF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DOES NOT REGAIN ITS ORIGINAL STRUCTURE. BUT GIVEN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER IS ONLY 10-15 MILES...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND THE EYE FOR DENNIS TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

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