Jog to the west last several frames

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Biloxi
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Jog to the west last several frames

#1 Postby Biloxi » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:12 am

Will have to see if this jog last for more than 3 frames. This is what Joe B. was discussing in his 9 am forecast this morning. He is still calling for it to reach the Mouth of the Ms. River.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml
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#2 Postby skywarn » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:15 am

I have also noted the westward movement on radar.
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#3 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:18 am

what strength is JB thinking?
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#4 Postby Wpwxguy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:19 am

Yep, west almost.
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Biloxi
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Skywarn- The more pair of eyes viewing the better.

#5 Postby Biloxi » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:21 am

After looking at these radars for hours you sometimes start to question yourself.
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#6 Postby cinlfla » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:23 am

I had to laugh at this one because I can't tell which way its moving anymore :D
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#7 Postby cajungal » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:23 am

What we have to look for is a trend. If you keep looking at every wobble, it will drive you nuts! I tried looking at for 5 seconds and it drove me nuts!
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#8 Postby FWBHurricane » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:23 am

I dunno..i see it but it only looks like a wobble..cause in the last frame you see it move kinda...north...or maybe its just me.
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Re: Jog to the west last several frames

#9 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:24 am

Biloxi wrote:Will have to see if this jog last for more than 3 frames. This is what Joe B. was discussing in his 9 am forecast this morning. He is still calling for it to reach the Mouth of the Ms. River.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml


Biloxi,
Do you have a link to Joe B's forecast this am? The only thing I am finding is Friday's forecast.
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Strength per JB - Cat 3 at landfall

#10 Postby Biloxi » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:24 am

Says that it will reach cat 3 but will start to weaken as it comes in. Still projects a cat 3 landfall - just not a cat 3 in the ramping up phase.
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Here is JB's 9am thoughts

#11 Postby Biloxi » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:28 am

Just some of his thoughts: After analyzing the different actual positions and quoting the actual movements for each analyzed time period. Example Movement since yesterday morning advisory: 4.4 degrees north and 3.3 west which is around 305 degrees. Since yesterday midday 2.9 north and 3.3 west which is around 310 degrees since yesterday evening 1.4 north and 2.2 west which is 305 degrees and since late last night 1 north 1.2 west which is 310 degrees. Since the early morning position, the actual recon is .4 west, .1 north which would be 280 degrees. He believes that it will continue to track to the mouth of the MS. River as a cat 3. He stated that there is nothing evident at this point to make him change his mind. He has been saying this since Thursday. He also said that the storm surge could be very significant due to the angle that the hurricane would come in at. Compares this to Camille but worse angle for N.O. and Ms. Coast.
Last edited by Biloxi on Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:31 am

I thnk that was a jog to the West, but each time he does that, Mississippi's chances of landfall increases. :(
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#13 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:35 am

that pascagoula refinery is a mile from my parents
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#14 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:35 am

Last few frames on radar look NNW-N.

Wobble Wobble Wobble.
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#15 Postby Agua » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:38 am

It looks like a wobble only, followed by a wobble to the NNW ... I think it's called "trachoidial" movement. So far, this morning, the NHC track has been pretty spot on. I think the storm was about 10 nm west of the track just before the 11 a.m. EDT advisory.
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#16 Postby cajungal » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:41 am

dhweather wrote:I thnk that was a jog to the West, but each time he does that, Mississippi's chances of landfall increases. :(
You live right near my grandparents, uncle and cousin. They live in Kiln, MS.
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#17 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:50 am

It's only wobbles. It'll be doing that all day long. I still say Pascagoula. In order for it to hit the mouth of the River, it would have to travel in a straight line...maybe more westward actually. I don't think that's going to happen. If JB knows something special, I wish he would share.
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Biloxi
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Could be stair stepping

#18 Postby Biloxi » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:52 am

Have to see which climb up the steps is most predominant. More west step or more north step? Thats the million dollar question.
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#19 Postby FWBHurricane » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:58 am

Its moving alot more northward now...but for some reason i cant put the link to the radar on this post...oh well.
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#20 Postby hurricanedude » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:59 am

ummmm.....dont see your west movement at all...NNW by NW
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