98L,TD may be forming

[cycloneye]

Well here is 98L.Emily very soon

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooo make it 5!!! Take that 1995....I hope this doe's not turn into a big storm.(At least not hitting land) but I will take the named storm.

[Terry]

Wow. Sheesh. Oh, my. I'll never get any quality sleep this season!

[cycloneye]

Wow. Sheesh. Oh, my. I'll never get any quality sleep this season!

And I will continue with more less hours of sleep.

[cajungal]

Hope it will be a fish. Most early season storms that far out usually turn out that way. Notice I said the word usually.

[ericinmia]

Hooray for insomnia.

I'm going to need sleep therapy after this season.
-Eric

[Terry]

May be we can get an S2k group rate for sleep therapy after the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I been up with little sleep. But I went this year to beat 1995..I hope most of them all fish.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050709 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050709 1200 050710 0000 050710 1200 050711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 37.3W 10.9N 40.0W 11.2N 42.7W 11.4N 45.6W
BAMM 10.3N 37.3W 10.9N 39.4W 11.3N 41.5W 11.4N 43.8W
A98E 10.3N 37.3W 10.6N 39.5W 11.1N 41.8W 11.7N 44.3W
LBAR 10.3N 37.3W 10.9N 39.6W 11.6N 42.4W 12.7N 45.2W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050711 1200 050712 1200 050713 1200 050714 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 48.6W 11.4N 54.7W 11.7N 60.3W 12.8N 65.4W
BAMM 11.4N 46.3W 11.4N 51.5W 12.0N 55.7W 13.0N 60.2W
A98E 12.1N 46.7W 13.3N 51.5W 14.6N 56.2W 16.6N 60.9W
LBAR 13.6N 48.3W 15.1N 54.1W 16.2N 58.7W 15.9N 59.7W
SHIP 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS 52KTS
DSHP 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 37.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 35.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 33.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First Model Plots for 98L.

[Scorpion]

Yet another week of sleepless nights might be ahead. Havent had a good nights sleep since the 4th.

[Meso]

Wow, another one.... Ah, Atleast I am safe in South Africa.... Hope whatever develops from this doesn't do too much damage!

[weatherwindow]

luis......with that trough progged at 70w, i believe pr could see something of emily

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye, thanks for the models.

Something you didn't mention for the people who do not know how to read that. The SHIPS intensity model is predicting this to become a strong tropical storm over the next few days with winds of at least 60 mph. It also tracks it westward towards the Caribbean, AGAIN.

[Stratusxpeye]

Wow. More sleepless days. Have to wait for that 11pm adv and up for the 5am What are chances of this being fish?

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, thanks for the models.

Something you didn't mention for the people who do not know how to read that. The SHIPS intensity model is predicting this to become a strong tropical storm over the next few days with winds of at least 60 mph. It also tracks it westward towards the Caribbean, AGAIN.

Yep I forgot to mention that.

[jpigott]

which area of convection in the sat pic has the LLC, is it the area to the N or S

[x-y-no]

Strong ridge to the north should keep it moving pretty close to due west until it gets to 60w or so, then there may be enough of a weakness to take it NW for a while.

Way too early for me to guess whether it goes north of the islands or not.

Jan

[x-y-no]

which area of convection in the sat pic has the LLC, is it the area to the N or S

It's the area to the NW - wave centered at around 10N 38W or so.

[Scorpion]

Doesnt sound good for Florida if that scenario occurs.

[gkrangers]

Doesnt sound good for Florida if that scenario occurs.

WAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early