Dennis Not Strengthening Quickly

[gkrangers]

24 hours over a low shear environment and high SSTs.

Its strenghthening as we speak and will continue to become better organized.

Dennis will likely make landfall as a legitiimate Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115-120mph, IMO.

Its not time to write it off yet!

[cajungal]

While the tracking of hurricanes have gotten a lot better over the years. Sometimes they still have trouble forecasting the intensity of these storms. Example: when Lili weakened the way she did. Just hope it stays that way and does not get much stronger. That is the only hope for anyone in his path.

[ericinmia]

To put it in simple quick terms.

An Eye is needed before it can go through any rapid intesification. The eye functions as the exhaust for the hurricane.

"Imagine if someone stuck a bunch of paper in your cars exhaust... the flow would be restricted and the car wouldn't function very well let alone reach its peak. However think of drag race cars that run 'open dump' with no exhaust... they can easily reach their peak."

So until a good prominant eye feature develops we will not see any rappid deepening of this system. Shear and SST's are not that big of a problem, the issue here is that the storms circulation was severly dissrupted by its lengthy trek over cuba. As soon as it regains its posture expect to see it come back together quickly up until landfall when it is expected to enter a higher shear enviroment.
-Eric

[dhweather]

24 hours over a low shear environment and high SSTs.

Its strenghthening as we speak and will continue to become better organized.

Dennis will likely make landfall as a legitiimate Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115-120mph, IMO.

Its not time to write it off yet!

The fact that Dennis is STRENGTHENING over a cold water eddy should be a clear indicator he's likely going back to cat 3 status.
They noted this eddy and "it won't take much" to get back to a major
in the NHC discussion.

[jkt21787]

To put it in simple quick terms.

An Eye is needed before it can go through any rapid intesification. The eye functions as the exhaust for the hurricane.

"Imagine if someone stuck a bunch of paper in your cars exhaust... the flow would be restricted and the car wouldn't function very well let alone reach its peak. However think of drag race cars that run 'open dump' with no exhaust... they can easily reach their peak."

So until a good prominant eye feature develops we will not see any rappid deepening of this system. Shear and SST's are not that big of a problem, the issue here is that the storms circulation was severly dissrupted by its lengthy trek over cuba. As soon as it regains its posture expect to see it come back together quickly up until landfall when it is expected to enter a higher shear enviroment.
-Eric

Agreed. The eye is beginning to clear though.

I am wondering about the shear though. Stewart says there is none to contend with. Whats the deal with that?

[dhweather]

To put it in simple quick terms.

An Eye is needed before it can go through any rapid intesification. The eye functions as the exhaust for the hurricane.

"Imagine if someone stuck a bunch of paper in your cars exhaust... the flow would be restricted and the car wouldn't function very well let alone reach its peak. However think of drag race cars that run 'open dump' with no exhaust... they can easily reach their peak."

So until a good prominant eye feature develops we will not see any rappid deepening of this system. Shear and SST's are not that big of a problem, the issue here is that the storms circulation was severly dissrupted by its lengthy trek over cuba. As soon as it regains its posture expect to see it come back together quickly up until landfall when it is expected to enter a higher shear enviroment.
-Eric

I think it's got an eye, albeit open somewhat, but the last 2-3 images from Key West Radar show explosive convection in the eyewall.
I sincerely think he's winding back up.

[logybogy]

The NHC says that Dennis will remain in a low shear environment. I don't understand where people think shear will increase. Read the NHC 11AM discussion.

The fact is Dennis is small and compact storm with a small eye. It will not take long to wind up and intensify once it gets into warmer waters.

one of the reasons Charley bombed from a Cat 2 to a 4 was because it had a similar structure. Small eye. Compact storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Logybogy, your 100 percent right any change at all could send this storm into over drive. Remember Charley an watch it very closely because just when you think its all safe then booom!!!

[Sanibel]

CONUS air to the west in the fuel mix.

The "cold" water pocket it is over is 82-83*...

[ericinmia]

Actually the reason that Charley intensified so quickly was the HUGE pressure gradient that it was sitting along. That scenario is not occuring here so don't expect the same sort of intensification.
-Eric

[logybogy]

Does anyone have links to a SST map of the area?

thanks.

[Opal storm]

The eye is coming back and convection is blowing up around it.Really starting to get it's act together now.

[pcolaguy]

Well Opal, we almost got off Dennis easy. Looks like that's not going to be the case.

[tallywx]

SST map:

https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif

Sure, he's over a cold eddy now, followed by warm water. But then he's going to move over an even larger cold eddy just before landfall.

[LSU2001]

I know the water is much cooler than the water in Carib. but understand the "cold is relative" the waters are still 82-85 F

NHC says the water is warm enough to suport a CAT 3. I don't know if it will get there but it can.
TIm

[logybogy]

The water is no colder than it was in the caribbean sea south of Jamica and Hispanola.

This cold water talk is ridiculous. Yes, colder than the 90 degree bathtub water right off the cuban coast but still plenty warm to support a cat 3 and even a 4 in optimal conditions.

[gatorcane]

it looks like it has gained alot of strength in the last couple of hours

[mascpa]

What SST does a storm need to really start to intensify? I thought 82 - 83 was sufficient. I think there is enough heat for Dennis to intensify plenty befor reaching land. In my opinion.

[gatorcane]

I believe the minimum for sustaining is 78F but strengthening doesn't take place until at least 80F+

[Radar]

It is hard to know what to do here in Biloxi.. I tried to get gallon water yesterday but the stores I went too were sold out, I was only able to get a couple of cases of individual waters. Do I go out again today and get water? The local Biloxi meterologists are saying we will only get some T.S. strength winds which shouldnt disrupt life too terribly on the MS Gulf Coast. I have flash lights, batteries, gas for car, food... do I go out and fight the crowds for water or just stick close to home and watch the weather. We dont even have any mandatory evacs for this area and hardly no one is boarding up. Could Dennis recharge and move more westerly? I have read so many conflicting things on the board it is hard to know what to do.