98L,TD may be forming

Scorpion · #41 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:28 pm

Im not sure this will be a GOM storm. Looks to be curving a little early. I think this might impact the Antilles or move north of them.

cajungal · #42 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:31 pm

Not if it takes the southern track. It looks to be heading towards the Yucatan if anything. Plenty of time to watch it.

caribepr · #43 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:32 pm

Most I know in the islands (Caribbean) have been very concerned about an early, strong season since late March when we skipped Spring and went to August type weather from a cold winter. Wouldn't have minded at all being surprised the other way though :roll:

Especially wouldn't have minded being able to stop worrying about islands, Fla and Panhandle (including Mobile/NO/points inbetween) family and friends in the path of Dennis.
Clickin' 'em off by the hours...and as ever, thanks, Cycloneye, for keeping us so well informed, no matter where we are!

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:46 pm

caribepr wrote:Most I know in the islands (Caribbean) have been very concerned about an early, strong season since late March when we skipped Spring and went to August type weather from a cold winter. Wouldn't have minded at all being surprised the other way though Especially wouldn't have minded being able to stop worrying about islands, Fla and Panhandle (including Mobile/NO/points inbetween) family and friends in the path of Dennis.
Clickin' 'em off by the hours...and as ever, thanks, Cycloneye, for keeping us so well informed, no matter where we are!

Yeah I remember those cool mornings in San Juan with low temps in the low to mid 60,s.We will be very busy watching to our east I fear as the CV season will be very active.

Hurricaneman · #45 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:50 pm

This will be a record breaking season, and this is just the beginning

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:10 pm

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT
WITH A 1013 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. THIS LOW HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WITH BANDING FEATURES
COMING ON THE N SIDE AND QUIKSCAT INDICATING A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER CONVECTION REMAINS MEAGER AS THE SYSTEM IS
ENTANGLED WITH A LOT OF MID/UPPER DRY AIR. A 1014 MB LOW WAS
SPAWNED OFF THIS WAVE A FEW DAYS AGO AND IS NOW DRIFTING
EASTWARD IN THE ITCZ NEAR 10.5N24.5W WITHOUT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE COULD REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY WED. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

The above from discussion at 2:05 PM.

Bluefrog · #47 Postby **Bluefrog** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:18 pm

crap..

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:31 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050709 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050709 1800 050710 0600 050710 1800 050711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.4N 37.6W 11.1N 40.3W 11.6N 43.0W 12.0N 45.7W
BAMM 10.4N 37.6W 11.0N 39.8W 11.6N 42.1W 11.9N 44.4W
A98E 10.4N 37.6W 10.7N 39.6W 11.1N 41.8W 11.5N 44.1W
LBAR 10.4N 37.6W 10.8N 39.8W 11.9N 42.3W 12.9N 44.9W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050711 1800 050712 1800 050713 1800 050714 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 48.0W 12.9N 53.0W 13.4N 58.0W 14.1N 62.8W
BAMM 12.3N 46.8W 13.0N 51.5W 13.7N 55.9W 14.7N 60.2W
A98E 11.9N 46.6W 13.4N 51.6W 14.8N 56.7W 16.1N 61.5W
LBAR 14.0N 47.8W 15.8N 53.1W 17.6N 57.9W 15.7N 60.6W
SHIP 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 35.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 34.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z run of 98L.

Scorpion · #49 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:31 pm

LBAR on crack lol.

#50 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:32 pm

Scorpion wrote:LBAR on crack lol.

Hehehe...it's like it was saying, "hey, wait...I'm not with the other guys!"

#51 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:32 pm

Scorpion wrote:LBAR on crack lol.

I was going to say what in the world LBAR is doing. :roll:

#52 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:34 pm

I know it's early, and wayyyy too far out, but I always take notice of those storms that are headed towards the Puerto Rico area. Hopefully it'll curve north, but we'll see :wink:

wxwatcher91 · #53 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:37 pm

this is a killer whale ahead...

any storm that starts that far out is a fish
but this is gonna be the fish of all fishes... at least going by the current models...

and then F coming??? all before August! wow...wonder if this season will cover the alphabet... :lol:

#54 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:43 pm

Listen guys I know it is way way way too early to even begin speculating on 98L but I want you guys to check the link out on the bottom. If you look at the WV loop, you can see a huge dip in the jetstream approaching the west coast of the US. What impact do you think that will have on whatever becomes of 98L?

<RICKY>

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html

Hurricaneman · #55 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:45 pm

Its too early to tell

#56 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:47 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:any storm that starts that far out is a fish
but this is gonna be the fish of all fishes... at least going by the current models...

Just remember this, Andrew started out there. :wink:

(NO, I'm not comparing them, by any means, nor am I saying this will come this way, just stating a fact)

#57 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:47 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Its too early to tell

Yeah I know. Thats what makes it so frustrating. Waiting and waiting and waiting.

<RICKY>

cajungal · #58 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:55 pm

The waiting game again. You probably won't even hear 98L be mentioned until after Dennis makes landfall. It is so far out.

wxwatcher91 · #59 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:57 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Listen guys I know it is way way way too early to even begin speculating on 98L but I want you guys to check the link out on the bottom. If you look at the WV loop, you can see a huge dip in the jetstream approaching the west coast of the US. What impact do you think that will have on whatever becomes of 98L?

<RICKY>

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html

They show that same trough in the west in the mm5... I think it will lift north once off the east coast and wont have any impact...

#60 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:06 pm

Have a couple of minutes here at work and thought I'd snap a few McIdas shots of 98L. Here are a couple of zoom levels. Definitely an LLC, but no convection over the center. Just a swirl now. Enjoy...

Zoomed in:
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/emily1.gif">

Zoomed out:
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/emily2.gif">

98L,TD may be forming

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