98L,TD may be forming

[wxwatcher91]

[caribepr]

A swirl of a girl! Hope she dances herself to pieces

[WeatherEmperor]

Even more stuff about to come off Africa. Boy if this were August....

<RICKY>

[Duffy]

i heard someone say that they heard that some of the Westerlies would kick in next week and perhaps kill off some of these Waves....but we'll see

[Cookiely]

Beautiful pics. Thanks for taking the time to share them.

[gatorbabe79]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3 ... ht.144.gif

[Guest]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE

DENNIS...LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY

FLORIDA...OR ALSO ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES

EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS

AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT

TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT

10 TO 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050710 0000 050710 1200 050711 0000 050711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 38.6W 11.2N 41.1W 11.6N 43.8W 11.8N 46.3W
BAMM 10.6N 38.6W 11.1N 40.6W 11.4N 42.8W 11.5N 45.2W
A98E 10.6N 38.6W 10.9N 40.4W 11.5N 42.5W 12.2N 44.7W
LBAR 10.6N 38.6W 11.3N 40.8W 12.2N 43.3W 13.1N 46.0W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050712 0000 050713 0000 050714 0000 050715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 48.7W 11.6N 54.2W 11.6N 60.0W 12.6N 65.3W
BAMM 11.5N 47.7W 11.6N 52.7W 12.2N 57.3W 13.9N 61.9W
A98E 12.8N 47.1W 14.5N 52.1W 16.2N 57.2W 18.0N 62.0W
LBAR 13.8N 48.8W 14.9N 54.5W 15.4N 60.0W 15.9N 63.8W
SHIP 35KTS 47KTS 55KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 47KTS 55KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 38.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 34.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM









The Models spread out beyond day 4.GFDL is the red line and goes NE of the Leewards.

[gatorcane]

will it develop is the question?

[senorpepr]

A quick little stat here...

Over the past 50 years, 98% had at least five tropical storms form. The average date for the fifth tropical storm to form: August 30th.

[cycloneye]

THe signature is there and the low pressure is there but some dry air and a little bit of easterly shear has not allowed it to organize more.However as it moves more westward warmer waters and better enviroment will allow 98L to organize more but it will be a slow proccess.By the way look what is emerging Africa.

[senorpepr]

A quick little stat here...

Over the past 50 years, 98% had at least five tropical storms form. The average date for the fifth tropical storm to form: August 30th.

To piggyback on that... the earliest for the fifth tropical storm to form over those 50 years was Jul 22nd, 1966.

[Josephine96]

Yeah let's not start sending things this way yet LMAO

[drudd1]

A quick little stat here...

Over the past 50 years, 98% had at least five tropical storms form. The average date for the fifth tropical storm to form: August 30th.

Last year the stats were tossed out the window, and I fear this year will be the same, heck it already is. We are in a period where you can toss out the old stats, and welcome in the new ones.

[air360]

A quick little stat here...

Over the past 50 years, 98% had at least five tropical storms form. The average date for the fifth tropical storm to form: August 30th.

To piggyback on that... the earliest for the fifth tropical storm to form over those 50 years was Jul 22nd, 1966.

sure...those are the historical statistics...but this season doesnt seem to really like to follow historical statistics as of yet

[Brent]

A quick little stat here...

Over the past 50 years, 98% had at least five tropical storms form. The average date for the fifth tropical storm to form: August 30th.

We're a full 50 days ahead of that.

[cycloneye]

A quick little stat here...

Over the past 50 years, 98% had at least five tropical storms form. The average date for the fifth tropical storm to form: August 30th.

We're a full 50 days ahead of that.

And Brent did you see the pic what is on the pipe from Africa?

[LAwxrgal]

All aboard the Cape Verde Express...

[senorpepr]

sure...those are the historical statistics...but this season doesnt seem to really like to follow historical statistics as of yet

I know... that's why I've posted the stats. It should underscore how powerful this season already is...

[Weatherboy1]

I posted in another thread, but looking at these latest lows/tropical waves, I can't believe it's only mid-July. In the past several years, I would hardly even LOOK this far east for a storm. But the shear profiles, SSTs, etc. in the mid-Atlantic look like late August, not July. With regards to these two potential development areas, it's WAY too early to forecast development. But I will say that the earliest model runs on the front-running system seem to suggest that the western edge of the Atlantic ridge will be eroded by whatever is left of Dennis. Therefore, this MAY not be a continental US threat. But again, this is FAR too early to say for sure. We'll see what happens over the next couple of days. Lots of time to watch and wait, even for those on this thread in PR!

-Mike