JB on Fox news still worried about left hook

[LSU2001]

JB on Fox news still is concerned about a left hook into Mississippi or SE La. close to landfall. I also remember one of the pros talking about a little left motion at landfall. Just adding to the opinions so don't shoot the messenger.

I think Mobile is gonna get hit hard.

TIm

[Stormcenter]

JB on Fox news still is concerned about a left hook into Mississippi or SE La. close to landfall. I also remember one of the pros talking about a little left motion at landfall. Just adding to the opinions so don't shoot the messenger.

I think Mobile is gonna get hit hard.

TIm

BANG!!!!

I agree Mobile may get hit hard so everyone there take care!!!!

[LSU2001]

Ouch that hurts

[bfez1]

From our local met here in New Orleans:

I will be writing a more extenisve discussion following the 4pm advisory. The headline is that the 12z and 18z models have done a major shift to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. There is still lots of time for a more northerly turn, and I would not read too much into it.

HOWEVER, the important message is that the Mississippi Gulf Coast is under a HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING means that hurricane conditions WILL HAPPEN in 24 hours or less. So, all residents of Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties should rush to completion their hurricane plans.

If you extrapolate the current track, it would yield a landfall tomorrow at Gulfport, Mississippi.

Again, I will wait to look at the Hurricane Center advisory at 4pm before making too many other comments.

JUST IN

Latest vortex message shows pressure is down another 4mb, so this is likely on its way to returning to Category 3 status.



David Bernard
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[HurryKane]

[LSU2001]

bfez,
Is that from the WWL board?
TIm

[skysummit]

What does Joe B. see? Why is he so worried about this?

[bfez1]

bfez,
Is that from the WWL board?
TIm

Yes!

[LSU2001]

Something about the upper level low diving south and the ridge building in stronger.
I think steve had it right in an earlier post it is all a matter of timing.
TIM

[deltadog03]

the ULL is nothing...its not effecting him at all...all the storms and gust fronts that try to push east towards LA are getting destroyed by dennis

[amawea]

He's watching the ridge coming back a little as the remnants of cindy pulls out into the atlantic, and the trough actually lifting a little and letting Dennis pull towards it. Remember when they realized back when Alicia came in that the hurricanes went to the area of lowest pressure? Thats what he's seeing.
Amawea

[goodlife]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

This WV loop sure tells that tale....look how the brown in front of the rainy stuff just off the coast of TX is being pushed back....

[gboudx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

This WV loop sure tells that tale....look how the brown in front of the rainy stuff just off the coast of TX is being pushed back....

I noticed that, but is that a significant enough of an event to affect the path of Dennis from this point forward?

[GalvestonDuck]

That's not brown...it's University of Texas Longhorns orange, thank ya very much!!

[HurryKane]

That's not brown...it's University of Texas Longhorns orange, thank ya very much!!

Just as long as it's not Tennessee orange

[skysummit]

He's watching the ridge coming back a little as the remnants of cindy pulls out into the atlantic, and the trough actually lifting a little and letting Dennis pull towards it. Remember when they realized back when Alicia came in that the hurricanes went to the area of lowest pressure? Thats what he's seeing.
Amawea

Ok, I see that on WV. I also see the high slightly building westward. Maybe he's thinking it will make a big difference.

[Derecho]

What does Joe B. see? Why is he so worried about this?

It's basically product placement.

1) He tells his fans what they want, and his fans want a New Orleans hit. Interestingly people seem not to care about whether a forecaster turns out to be accurate as long as they're told what they want to hear.

2) If it does somehow hit New Orleans, he's a hero, his fanboys build shrines to his honor, etc. Heck, all it has to do is landfall 10 miles west of the NHC landfall and somehow it will be presented as a JB victory.

3) If it doesn't hit New Orleans, nobody remembers what he said except people like me, and his clueless fanboys start spinning that Joe didn't actually FORECAST it to hit New Orleans, just that he was WORRIED about it hitting New Orleans; when JB blows a forecast, it then magically becomes NOT a forecast, just "speculation" or "giving possibilities."

[skysummit]

Well, I'm south of New Orleans, and I don't consider myself a "JB Fan". I really don't listen to him much, but I do respect his forecasts. I, for one, definately do NOT want a NOLA hit.

[dhweather]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

This WV loop sure tells that tale....look how the brown in front of the rainy stuff just off the coast of TX is being pushed back....

Man, that is beautiful!!! Someone is learning about the weather!!!!!!

Specifically, as goodlife pointed out, the very dry air associated with the
ULL over SE Texas appers to have stopped its eastward motion and may be moving SW now. The mosture in front of Dennis is building in to the West.
Some of that dry air was pulled into another ULL over the BOC, and is wrapping around that feature.


THIS IS MY OPINION AND IS NOT OFFICIAL - SEE THE NHC FOR OFFICIAL GUIDANCE!!!!!!

This is what Joe B sees, I think. (I have not watched him, just read here what he has said)

Watch the WV loop. Draw a line from about 23N /88W to 29N/92W
To the east of that line, conditions are favorable for development
which includes little SW shear.

If Dennis makes it to, say 88.5W as he approaches the coast, there's
a window of opportunity for him to jog left at landfall, since the ULL over SE Texas is moving away to the SW.

There's a pretty strong southerly flow right now in the vicinity of
25N/91W, so it's not likely that Dennis will go West of 91 or 92 degrees.
If he makes it to 90 though, that's New Orleans.

[amawea]

Derecho, Thats a cheap shot staement and you know it. I've always appreciated your post but this isn't one of them. And yes, people do remember. I'm one of them that takes him to task when he's wrong thru e-mail. But I also complement him when he's right. Seems around here no one wants to see when he's right, but jump all over him when he's wrong. That 10 mile statement prooves your one that don't like him just because he's independant of the offiial U.S. government entity.
Amawea