DENNIS IS BOMBING OUT

[jwayne]

Look at last sat's. I don't care what nhc says in advisory: that thing is a major NOW and may be as high as 125 to 130. Expect advisory in next hour or two to reflect that. If I'm wrong, I'll take my deserved punishment.

[gkrangers]

I respectfully disagree.

A lot more goes into hurricane intensity than satellite shots and minimum pressure.

[Stormchaser16]

you deserve punishment now

its strengthening.... not "bombing"
the core is EXTREMELY cold still..... i.e subtropical

[Hurrilurker]

I'm not prepared to say it's "bombing out" yet, but it sure does look a lot more impressive on sat than it did 6-12 hours ago, especially on the visible channel. Becoming very tight and symmetrical and the eye is becoming very well-defined. Dennis made a pretty impressive recovery from its Cuba ravaging.

[jwayne]

thanks for your politeness in disagreeing. Let's see what is said in the next couple of hours. If I'm wrong, then so be it.

[Lowpressure]

I agree it looks nastier than 105, but with recon in the hurricane, lets be reasonable. Trust recon more than your eye. Winds will catch up to the dropping pressure 955. I think this has a little surprise in store for us. If the pressure keeps dropping, this will soon be bigger than we think. Look at what 955 should be in regards to wind speed and you will see what I am talking about.

[feederband]

you deserve punishment now

its strengthening.... not "bombing"
the core is EXTREMELY cold still..... i.e subtropical

I'm confused with this cold core stuff...why is it, how is it?

[gkrangers]

thanks for your politeness in disagreeing. Let's see what is said in the next couple of hours. If I'm wrong, then so be it.

Well, no, because by the 11PM advisory, the winds will have increased and the core will have warmed. So, your post is a matter of now, not in a few hours.

[Stormchaser16]

you deserve punishment now

its strengthening.... not "bombing"
the core is EXTREMELY cold still..... i.e subtropical

I'm confused with this cold core stuff...why is it, how is it?

look at the temperatures coming in from the vortex messages, this isnt a purely warm core tropical system.... a tropical system has a warm core..... this therefore can be classified as subtropical

[wlfpack81]

Dennis does look very impressive from all the different sat channels. Eye showing up very well on vis sat imagery. Wouldn't be suprised to see an upgarde in winds a bit in the next advisory. System does look like it's going to make a nice run for min Cat 3 status again. It certainly has enough time if it wants to do so.

[jwayne]

no, I said the next hour or two. I'm either right or wrong wy 5:45pm cdt. If it's not until 11, then I am wrong. And I know I'm hanging out on a limb, because I'm literally focusing on the last frame on the loop. It's that dramatic. We'll see!!

[btangy]

It's only a matter of time before the convection around the eye reestablishes a warm core. Recent satellite shows the eye is beginning to become cloud free, which also suggests the center is warming (stabilizing) rapidly.

[feederband]

you deserve punishment now

its strengthening.... not "bombing"
the core is EXTREMELY cold still..... i.e subtropical

I'm confused with this cold core stuff...why is it, how is it?

look at the temperatures coming in from the vortex messages, this isnt a purely warm core tropical system.... a tropical system has a warm core..... this therefore can be classified as subtropical

Is there such a thing as a subtropical cat 3 hurricane?

[jwayne]

pressure down another 3 mbs (955). I'm liking my chances more and more.

[JTD]

Folks,

This is Hurricane Isabel from 2003 redux. Remember how Isabel's pressure dropped with no correlation with a wind speed increase? Same thing happening here.

Dennis needs to develop a warm core and soon or it will be about as powerful as Isabel on landfall (which hopefully it is not developing)

[Stormchaser16]

you deserve punishment now

its strengthening.... not "bombing"
the core is EXTREMELY cold still..... i.e subtropical

I'm confused with this cold core stuff...why is it, how is it?

look at the temperatures coming in from the vortex messages, this isnt a purely warm core tropical system.... a tropical system has a warm core..... this therefore can be classified as subtropical

were talking technicalities here, not on all counts is this a subtropical system as it is becoming more tropical by the minute, earlier today though i would have called this subtropical, with a large windfield and cold core.... now everything is organizing again and it does appear that the core is rapidly warming as the eye begins to clearly emerge
Is there such a thing as a subtropical cat 3 hurricane?

[feederband]

Folks,

This is Hurricane Isabel from 2003 redux. Remember how Isabel's pressure dropped with no correlation with a wind speed increase? Same thing happening here.

Dennis needs to develop a warm core and soon or it will be about as powerful as Isabel on landfall (which hopefully it is not developing)

How does he regain warm core?

[jwayne]

if what I just saw is right, I'm wrong because I vastly underestimated the strength: 926 mbs????????

[gkrangers]

if what I just saw is right, I'm wrong because I vastly underestimated the strength: 926 mbs????????

No, just a bogus report from the dropsonde.

[jwayne]

that 926 can't be right. I'd believe 945, but that's about it.