DENNIS IS BOMBING OUT

ChaserUK · #21 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm

Well he's is sucking in air at the surface but I understand he is moving over a cold eddy at the moment - I am sure when its out over warm water a warm core would result? Please teach me if I am wrong!

Sanibel · #22 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:02 pm

You're just early a few hours. A perfect structure hurricane is easing into the warm loop current in easing synoptics...

gkrangers · #23 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:03 pm

ChaserUK wrote:Well he's is sucking in air at the surface but I understand he is moving over a cold eddy at the moment - I am sure when its out over warm water a warm core would result? Please teach me if I am wrong!

The water temperature doesn't have anything to do with the lower core temperature.

Remember, this "cool" eddy isn't cold. Its say, maybe 81-82 degrees as oppposed to 85 degrees. I'm not sure of the exact temps, but you get the idea.

#24 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:03 pm

i think its slowing down?? any thoughts??

#25 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:03 pm

jason0509 wrote:Folks,

This is Hurricane Isabel from 2003 redux. Remember how Isabel's pressure dropped with no correlation with a wind speed increase? Same thing happening here.

Dennis needs to develop a warm core and soon or it will be about as powerful as Isabel on landfall (which hopefully it is not developing)

Similar to Isabel, except she became cool core and displayed no eye at all on impact, she also had a huge wind field. Wind field here is in line with tropical. I see your comparison, but very different in outcome.

jwayne · #26 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:04 pm

I've still got about an hour and 45 minutes. If not to 125 mph by then, I was wrong.

#27 Postby **feederband** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:11 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i think its slowing down?? any thoughts??

I was going to say the same thing.But due to lack of sleep it could be my mind is prosessing things slow... :lol:

#28 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:13 pm

lol...me too...i really think he is slowing down

ChaserUK · #29 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:13 pm

Thanks Guys for your comments there. I guess when I hear cold or cool I tend to think of UK standards - but I am seing the eye becoming VERY defined and apparently there has been a 10mb drop just recently although I do not have the timescale involved.

AL Chili Pepper · #30 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:14 pm

Man, did you see that eye pop out?!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Cape Verde · #31 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:15 pm

Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 21
 Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 09, 2005 <PRE></PRE>
<PRE>
what a difference 6 hours makes! Satellite...radar...and NOAA and
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate Dennis has possibly started
a rapid deepening phase. The eye has become become defined in both
radar and satellite imagery...and the pressure is now 955 mb...down
almost 10 mb in the past 6 hours. The winds are gradually beginning
to catch up with the pressure falls as indicated by a 700 mb
flight-level wind of 101 kt...equal to about a 91 kt surface wind
...In the northeast quadrant.
</PRE>
<PRE>The initial motion estimate is 325/12. Dennis has made a large
wobble to the west-northwest in the past 2 hours...but this is
probably a temporary motion due to the deep convection having
exploded and wrapped around the west side of the eye. Once the
convective pattern becomes more symmetrical...I expect Dennis to
resume a northwest motion of 320 to 325 degrees. The new 18z NHC
model guidance is more convergent and is now in better agreement on
a track toward the western Florida Panhandle to southern Alabama
area. The NOGAPS and GFDN models have shifted sharply to the right
...Or east of Louisiana...and the NHC model consensus has also
shifted to the right and closer to the previous 3 NHC forecast
tracks. As a result...no significant change was made to the
previous forecast track.
</PRE>
<PRE>The central pressure of 955 mb normally would support an initial
intensity of 105-110 kt...but the inner core pressure gradient is
still flat due to land interaction with Cuba last night. However...
the small 10-15 nmi diameter eye...recent sharp pressure falls...
warm water ahead of the cyclone...and impressive outflow all
suggest that Dennis should go on and intensify into a major
hurricane...and possibly even regain category 4 strength before it
makes landfall on Sunday.
</PRE>
<PRE>
Various wind radii were increased based on recon data
</PRE>
<PRE>
forecaster Stewart
</PRE>
<PRE>
</PRE>
<PRE>
forecast positions and Max winds
</PRE>
<PRE>

initial 09/2100z 25.7n 84.6w 90 kt
12hr VT 10/0600z 27.5n 85.8w 100 kt
24hr VT 10/1800z 29.9n 87.2w 110 kt
36hr VT 11/0600z 32.3n 88.4w 65 kt...inland
48hr VT 11/1800z 34.2n 89.3w 30 kt...dissipating inland
72hr VT 12/1800z 37.0n 89.0w 20 kt...remnant low inland
96hr VT 13/1800z 38.0n 87.0w 20 kt...remnant low inland
120hr VT 14/1800z 39.0n 82.0w 20 kt...remnant low inland
</PRE>
<PRE> </PRE>

jwayne · #32 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:16 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:Man, did you see that eye pop out?!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

that last frame is the one that made me start this topic.

#33 Postby **jeff** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:18 pm

Dennis is becoming better organized. Deep intense convection is wrapping around the center and the eye is becoming better defined. The pressure continues to fall (955mb) based on recon. data. The winds will begin to respond to the falling pressure and Deniis will likley be back to major status sometime this evening.

As stated before forecasting intensity changes is extremely difficult and not well understood. Dennis could move ashore much stronger than forecast or much weaker than forecast.

Residents in the hurricane warning area should be preparing for a strong category 3 or weak category 4 hurricane.

gkrangers · #34 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:18 pm

Also, don't get me wrong, I think the storm is deepening nicely and we will see winds up 120-130+ mph at some time, probably 115 by late tonight.

I just have to go with what recon says at the moment, as thats the best observations we have. So the winds will catch up, just maybe not right now.

jwayne · #35 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:21 pm

20:45 sat pic is in. even better eye.

logybogy · #36 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:23 pm

Very impressive! I think we got a cat 4 in the making!

#37 Postby **feederband** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:23 pm

I think the word bomb or bombing is being used to state the over all look of the storm not to necessarily to say that it gained major strength,just the overall look at it now compared to earlier..

#38 Postby **wlfpack81** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:24 pm

Man things seem to be getting worse and worse for the central / ne-ern GOM area. :cry:

gkrangers · #39 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:25 pm

feederband wrote:I think the word bomb or bombing is being used to state the over all look of the storm not to necessarily to say that it gained major strength,just the overall look at it now compared to earlier..

Well..the words "bomb out" and "rapid intensification" are used to indicate serious pressure drops and great increase in wind speeds.

I think the terms are overused....seems they pop up everytime the convection blows up. Same with ERC's.

jwayne · #40 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:29 pm

I'm sorry, but that shot is of a MAJOR hurricane. still got another hour and 15 minutes to go.

DENNIS IS BOMBING OUT

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