Dennis Intensity Discussion As It Approaches Landfall

[gatorcane]

This morning there was slow intensification until the last few hours where rapid intensification has been taking place. As it approaches landfall, let's discuss intensity. Last year, Ivan actually blew up similar to this and then about 6 hours before landfall weakened substantially to 120mph winds. Do we expect this kind of behavior here? Charley, on the other hand intensified rapidly to nearly CAT 5 strength in a matter of hours. It looks like Dennis could be on it's way to possibly CAT 4 strength now.

[Hurrilurker]

I thought the NHC said the water temps and other conditions could only support a Cat 3 until landfall?

[btangy]

Provided the mixed layer depth of the ocean isn't abnormally shallow, wind shear is almost nonexistent, and dry air doesn't intrude into the storm, tropical cyclones often get quite close if not reach their potential intensity. Ivan is a good example of this. Dennis reached its potential intensity S of Cuba.

What concerns me is that the potential intensity actually increases in front of Dennis despite the SSTs decreasing. This means the atmosphere is slightly more unstable to the N, which may offset any decrease in SST. If wind shear remains light, then with that tight inner core, Dennis may intensify much more than currently indicated.

[Sanibel]

Obviously if he is showing very good structure now, any encounter with perfect conditions will be soon followed by high potential...