NNW track has started.

#41 Postby **Wthrman13** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:32 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:It appears a little more northerly to me versus what it was last night, overnight and (early) this morning.

It just recently moved off the Key West radar scope. If it were moving how it was the last several hours... it would have "exited it" sooner than it did.

As of 2:30 ET, the eye is still on the extended base reflectivity display of the Key West radar, and it still looks like it's moving NW to me.

Website · #42 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:51 pm

If anything, the models will shift westward. This is VERY obviously a storm that is going to between Biloxi and Pensacola.

Opal storm · #43 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:58 pm

Brent wrote:If anything, the models will shift westward. This is VERY obviously a storm that is going to between Biloxi and Pensacola.

That's where it looks like it's going.NHC still shows a P'cola landfall but I expect that to shift a little west.But,all it takes is one big wobble or jog to the north or west to change everything.

hurricanefloyd5 · #44 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:09 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Motion is 325-330 degrees right now...

Is this a surprise? Will the tracks shift East?

Un huh. Eventually.

OMG are you guys like for real??????????????????????????? :eek:

kevin · #45 Postby **kevin** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:13 pm

dixiebreeze is a location biased forecaster. That is PC for another term. I gotta call it how I see it.

jkt21787 · #46 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:13 pm

Conference call just wrapped up. There will be LITTLE OR NO change in the foreast path.

#47 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:15 pm

thanks kevin..that is a bold move...i mean if that means from now to landfall

Sanibel · #48 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:17 pm

Storm is left or west (of track)...

Droop12 · #49 Postby **Droop12** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:27 pm

Its gone left and right and south and north of the projected track for 3 or 4 days now and look how spot on the NHC has been. Dont worry about wobbles. Since hurricanes stair step things tend to even out. Im betting by 5pm there isnt much of a change in track. Maybe alittle further west, maybe further east. Didnt Stewart say something about he wouldnt be surprised to see a shift eastward from the guidance?

Agua · #50 Postby **Agua** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:31 pm

Droop12 wrote:Its gone left and right and south and north of the projected track for 3 or 4 days now and look how spot on the NHC has been. Dont worry about wobbles. Since hurricanes stair step things tend to even out. Im betting by 5pm there isnt much of a change in track. Maybe alittle further west, maybe further east. Didnt Stewart say something about he wouldnt be surprised to see a shift eastward from the guidance?

Exactly. The motion evens out through the wobbles and NHC, since crossing Cuba and getting a handle on it, has had an awesome track so far.

Sanibel · #51 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:31 pm

That is exactly why I mentioned it. The trough seems to be weakening and lifting north. That could take the inhibiting effects away from the preshore area allowing intensification.

That shape and perfect eye about to blow out are a very dangerous message if perfect conditions are encountered...

#52 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:40 pm

Major W wobble going on right now.... :eek:

Rainband · #53 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:45 pm

Looks wnw to me. Good news for the panhandle if this keeps up

#54 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:47 pm

Looks wnw to me. Good news for the panhandle if this keeps up

yes it's WNW but in a major way, probably a wobble, but that is some WNW wobble. Haven't seen this all day.

#55 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:55 pm

It's seems since the center exited Cuba it's been more positioned to the right of the main CDO. At times, it's also been slightly elongated (per radar). So as it rotates beneath the massive hurricane shield, sometimes it turns one way or the other. Yesterday it was more toward the west side of NW, most of today it's been correcting back to the N side of NW a bit. But here's another flip back the other way. Ultimately, it's probably going to average out to NW followed by a slow morph to NNW. As per the NHC 5 day track, it doesn't hook back north until northern Mississippi.

FWIW, here's the latest guidance (probably posted in another post). The 18z's tropical models are all west of the TPC track. Since NHC's track has been better all along, I'll be mostly focusing on that.

Steve

#56 Postby **mvtrucking** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:07 pm

Steve,
For the rookie observer, are you saying its west of the NHC track?

Website · #57 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:13 pm

Rainband wrote:Looks wnw to me. Good news for the panhandle if this keeps up

But bad news for people who are more likely to be unprepared... right now I'm hoping it follows the NHC track. At least they are prepared.

Rainband · #58 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:19 pm

everybody in the GOM should be prepared.

Ixolib · #59 Postby **Ixolib** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:21 pm

Rainband wrote:everybody in the GOM should be prepared.

Well, certainly all GOMERS in the "warned" areas.

#60 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:21 pm

Brent wrote:
Rainband wrote:Looks wnw to me. Good news for the panhandle if this keeps up

But bad news for people who are more likely to be unprepared... right now I'm hoping it follows the NHC track. At least they are prepared.

I was thinking the same thing. The closer this thing tracks towards Mississippi / LA the worse. People are prepared from Alabama - Florida more so then LA / Mississippi residents. In this sense I mean... it's too late to start evacuations. If the path changes west now it wouldn't be a good thing at all.

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