Joe Bastardi, "Fish" and The Media

[amawea]

I understand what Duffy is trying to say and felt he did a good job except for maybe those that experience the devastation these storms bring. I didn't feel he wanted anyone to have that happen to them, just that this is what happens with Hurricanes when they do hit your area. It's the way it is and if it weren't exciting we wouldn't be here on this board. Even folks in other areas get that adrenalin/ excitement when severe weather is around. The "WEATHER", Ain't it great. I love all aspects of the weather. Coll fall days, falling snow, storms, and just the fresh spring shower. At any given time someone is going through hell somewhere due to the weather. I have been through two typhoons when stationed in Guam and I lived in Baytown when Alicia hit. One typhoon had gust to 210 mph(Pamela), look it up. Trees down all over, grass stripped from the ground, and home damage. No power or water in the house for almost a month. I still love the WEATHER. Also as Duff said I enjoy Joe Bastardi, and feel he is amongst the best forecasters out there. At least he doesn't just say the models say this so, so am I. Some Meteoroligist can't really fortecast. They just put out the consensus of the models, even when they are way beyond reason.
Amawea

[xraymike1]

As a native Floridian, I was in my first hurricane in 1960 as 5 month old and then a few since. My father was a general contractor and storm insurance adjuster. So back in the days before the evacuation zone began if you lived in a strong house you stayed. I lived on a barrier island and never left for a storm. I was tracking storms as soon as I was able to mark a dot on a map. Tracking is a wonderful thing, but you have to realize what happens when it hits. Working in the medical field, the problems are numerous from who has to stay in the hospital to who comes in to relief them after the storm, what conditions you will have there and at your home. With Frances last year there was staff in the hospital for over 2 days without a break waiting for her to come ashore and then waiting for those of us to be able to come in to relieve them. I too love tracking a storm and the feeling that this one might hit here but after the two last year I have had enough for a while. As for living in Florida and having to live with the threat of hurricanes, that goes along with it but for me better here than shoveling snow off the road to go to work!

[The Big Dog]

Also as Duff said I enjoy Joe Bastardi, and feel he is amongst the best forecasters out there. At least he doesn't just say the models say this so, so am I. Some Meteoroligist can't really fortecast. They just put out the consensus of the models, even when they are way beyond reason.
Amawea

As for Bastardi, I think a lot of people put him down because of his connection to Accuweather, which doesn't get a whole lot of respect on this board, and less now that they're trying to ramrod an unpopular bill through Congress.

[x-y-no]

Also as Duff said I enjoy Joe Bastardi, and feel he is amongst the best forecasters out there. At least he doesn't just say the models say this so, so am I. Some Meteoroligist can't really fortecast. They just put out the consensus of the models, even when they are way beyond reason.
Amawea

As for Bastardi, I think a lot of people put him down because of his connection to Accuweather, which doesn't get a whole lot of respect on this board, and less now that they're trying to ramrod an unpopular bill through Congress.

Well, I used to like the guy. But more and more, he's going on with his jabs at NHC, which are so transparently a part of Accuweather's despicable power grab. Two weeks ago, he swore off doing that, but that was a line of bull - he's still at it nonstop. And the irony is, NHC was head and shoulders above his performance on Dennis - he had the storm going south of Jamaica, and even after it passed north of Jamaica he had it crossing the western tip of Cuba (he even mentioned the possibility of going through the Yucatan channel at that late date. Yesterday, he was still insisting on a mouth of the Missisippi landfall, and scoffing at the NHC's Pensacola track.

Bottom line is, as pathetic as the models he was denigrating were on this storm crossing Cuba, his judgement was even wrse than those models only in the opposite direction. And NHC, whom he continues to belittle in his annoying snide way, kicked his butt from day one.

So no, I don't like the guy any more, and for good reason. He's earned my strong dislike in spades.

Jan

[BocaGirl]

I agree. I love tropical cyclones it is what I'v alway loved to watch/track. I personally think if you build with an a hurricane area then you have asked for it. True for any other person that builds with an a area unfavable for living.

I don't went any one to get hurt but its like heck you walk into a lions cage your going to get ate.

Hey Matt, maybe you should take a drive through Polk County, Florida. They got devastated by 3 storms last year and they're well inland. Explain to us how someone in inland Polk County Florida chose an area "unfavable for living".

You know, it's easy to be high and mighty and make pronouncements that people take a big risk living in hurricane-prone areas. If you're talking about a stilt-house right on the water, I don't think you'll get too much disagreement from most folks here. But you can't possibly mean all of the coastal states can you?

Using that kind of logic I guess no one should live in Tornado Alley either. Or any place of weather extremes.

All I can say is that it's easy to track a hurricane from the relative comfort of your very safe computer when there's no chance of being personally affected. Why not come and experience it first-hand? Maybe put your life on the line saving others if need be.

One more thing....I don't know why you live where you do. I do know that some people live in hurricane-prone areas because of many reasons-family reasons, job reasons or even to be close to a medical center or particular doctor. It's not so easy to just pick up and move away from the "lions cage" you describe, even if there's a chance they might get "ate".

With all due respect Matt, I think your statement lacks heart, compassion or understanding. Especially now - with Dennis set to make landfall later this weekend.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[amawea]

Actually x-y-no, Joe has said for two days how well the TPC has done. I haven't read one put down of the NHC. Not one.
amawea

[Steve]

Hey amawea,

goodlife mentioned he changed his forecast. Got a summary or brief synopsis? Thanks.

Steve

[x-y-no]

Actually x-y-no, Joe has said for two days how well the TPC has done. I haven't read one put down of the NHC. Not one.
amawea

I don't subscribe any more, so I haven't read his columns. But I have watched his videos on Yahoo the last few weeks, and he keeps putting in little subtle jabs, little chuckles connected with references to "what's being said at other sources" etc. Thursday, he was on a riff about how silly the "other sources" were for apparently relying on the US models - completely ignoring the fact that NHC did not go all the way with following the GFS based guidance. He scoffed and chuckled and talked about how clear it was that Dennis would stay south of Cuba until way over at the western end, and how the notion of him crossing cetral Cuba was foolish.

Now he couches his words a little more carefully than that, and yes, he did admit yesterday that the NHC were dead on with their 72 hour forecast (right before he went on to tout his mouth of the Mississippi idea again) but the tone is crystal clear and frankly very insulting.

And I repeat - he has nothing to crow about, because his "forecast" (such as it was - I note he does not give forecast points and times, only general indications of what he thinks the track will be intermixed with scoffing at what "other sources" may be saying) frankly sucked.

Jan

[amawea]

Hey Steve,

"Posted under fair use" not verbatim
JB said
Ffirst major north of northwest move has been occurring the past couple of hours and if there is not a corresponding move of the eye back further west of northwest, it would mean that the more easterly track is the better of the two. The worry with my track idea is not meant to diminish the validity of the more east idea, and folks in the hurricane warning area should rush to complete what they need to do.

To relate to the NHC, he said( This was a Friday post.}
"It looks to me TPC has a 0 error on track from three days out." I think thats a complement.
Amawea

[Steve]

Thanks.

Steve

[amawea]

Well x-y-no, I don't know what you mean by forecast points and times, and I didn't watch but one of the yahoo videos, I don't understand your saying points and times when he has consistently said between N.O. and Mobile until today. As I quoted on the above post he said the TPC has been right on. Maybe you need to resubsribe so you can get the whole picture. Also, right now, the mouth of the Mississippi is looking like a pretty good call.
amawea

[x-y-no]

Well x-y-no, I don't know what you mean by forecast points and times, and I didn't watch but one of the yahoo videos, I don't understand your saying points and times when he has consistently said between N.O. and Mobile until today. As I quoted on the above post he said the TPC has been right on. Maybe you need to resubsribe so you can get the whole picture. Also, right now, the mouth of the Mississippi is looking like a pretty good call.
amawea

Forecast points and times: what the NHC does - latitude, longitude, intensity, speed and direction at 12 hour intervals out several days. What JB does, for the most part, is wave his hands at the map and say "I think it'll be in there somewhere" without any speceficity which could be verified later for accuracy or lack thereof.

Look, obviously you like the guy, and so did I until he made himself part and parcel of his corporation's attempt at legalized grand theft. You say you haven't watched his videos, well that's what I've been doing and I'm telling you his attitude and his tone and his little dropped hints are very insulting. A couple of weeks ago, he went so far as to go on a peevish rant about not using the storm names any more because he has some problem with NHC's classification of systems. What happened to that resolution? I say to JB - put out a real forecast - i.e. in 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hours, the storm will be at this position, with this intensity, moving in this direction at this speed - and do that using only the raw data and without cribbing off the hard work of the NHC forecasters, and outperform those forcasters and then you might have some right to scoff.

As for resubscribing - I wouldn't send a penny to Accuweather if you held a gun to my head - and I won't ever do so unless they publicly forswear their effort to seize public assets for their private gain at our expense, and publicly apologize for ever having attempted such a brazen act of thievery.

Jan

[Duffy]

WOW, i hope JB doesn't read these Posts lol

[x-y-no]

WOW, i hope JB doesn't read these Posts lol

I hope he does - maybe it'll induce some self-examination on his part.

Jan

[Duffy]

LOL
you think he is aware of this Site?

[x-y-no]

LOL
you think he is aware of this Site?

I understand that some Accuweather mets have been known to visit here, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[Skywatch_NC]

LOL
you think he is aware of this Site?

I understand that some Accuweather mets have been known to visit here, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

A few have over at VanceWxman's WxChat site, too, quite an interesting conversation it has been over there.

[Duffy]

oh i bet lol

[amawea]

Well x-y-n0 your post perfectly describes the attitude of non- private weather services. You dang right I pay tax dollars for those satelliites, etc, so it should also be my right to choose who analysis them. Be it private or gov. Also J.B. does give Long./lat. criteria. Go read his 7/08/ post.

[Steve H.]

Anywoo back to fish. The most annoying thing about "fish" is that the ignorant always say that every CV wave that comes off the African continent is going to the fishes. That's all the guy meant to say IMHO.