AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005
.DISCUSSION...ALL OF THE TALK IS ON HURRICANE DENNIS...AND AS WELL
IT SHOULD BE. BUT BEFORE THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIET 18HRS. CURRENT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ESPECIALLY AS
SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE OF DENNIS SETS IN. THE EFFECTS OF DENNIS WILL
BEGIN TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS GETTING IN HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO RIGHT
NOW SKIES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN ONLY CONTINUE
WITH SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLY BY MIDDAY. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST ABV NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THEM IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY TOMORROW MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL FIRST PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
THEN BY MIDDAY COULD ALREADY BE GUSTING TO 25 MPH. WITH SOME
OUTTERBANDS POSSIBLY ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS. THE WEATHER WILL ONLY BE ON THE WAY
DOWNHILL AS SUNDAY WEARS ON.
DENNIS HAS BEEN GAINING STRENGTH ALL DAY AND CONTINUES A NORTHWEST
MOTION. PRESSURE SINCE 2AM THIS MORNING HAS FALLEN FROM 972 MB TO
958MB. WHILE WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 105MPH. CURRENT TRACK OF
DENNIS BRINGS IT ON LAND B/T PENSACOLA AND MOBILE NOW AS A
FORMIDABLE CAT3 STORM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 TO 135 MPH WITH
GUST OVER 150MPH!!! THIS WILL MEAN POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS OUR ESTRN ZONES. WILL UPGRADE THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TO AN
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WILL ISSUE AN INLAND HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THOSE SAME COUNTIES. ALSO WILL EXTEND THE INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO INTERSTATE 55. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE JACKSON METRO.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 55 OR GREATER
MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE METRO. ALSO WITH ANY DECENT RAIN BAND THAT
COMES ACROSS WIND GUSTS MAY EVEN APPROACH 70MPH. /CAB/
NOTE HOWEVER: ANY WWD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WILL BRING
BIG TIME PROBLEMS WITH POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE...TORNADOES AND GREATER
RAINFALL TO ERN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL MS. A FEW MODELS STILL TRY
TO BRING DENNIS INTO THE MS COAST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR AS THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER. THIS IS NOT TO BE TAKEN LIKELY AND ALL INTEREST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
