NNW track has started.

[gatorcane]

I was thinking the same thing. The closer this thing tracks towards Mississippi / LA the worse. People are prepared from Alabama - Florida more so then LA / Mississippi residents. In this sense I mean... it's too late to start evacuations. If the path changes west now it wouldn't be a good thing at all.

[Steve]

>>Steve, For the rookie observer, are you saying its west of the NHC track?

Run this link. At the top of the image you will see a check box for "Trop Fcst Pts" Click on that it and it will load the upcoming forecasted plots. Forecaster Stewart said that the nudge west is probably due to wrap around associated with the deepening of the system. I'd say that' 90% right. But unless the storm corrects this, it will move slightly to the left of the next forecasted plot. However, SSD doesn't update as much as they should even with the floaters. So the last frame in the loop is about 1:10 minutes old. When they load the next couple we should know if they were on or a hair too far east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Steve

[Rainband]

everybody in the GOM should be prepared.

Well, certainly all GOMERS in the "warned" areas.

My point was Come June 1rst people should be prepared and Everyone knows how unpredictable TS cyclones can sometimes be. Once this thing entered the GOM residents along the whole GOM should have been watching and preparing to take action if it was deemed necessary. Remember Elena

[smashmode]

Looks like a direct hit on mobile.

Lets pray that the storm doesnt go west of the city..otherwise..wouldnt that give the strongest winds to the city itself?

[mvtrucking]

Thanks Steve. That helped alot. I am eager to see the next floater view(Still 2045).

[mtm4319]

Looks like a direct hit on mobile.

Lets pray that the storm doesnt go west of the city..otherwise..wouldnt that give the strongest winds to the city itself?

Yep... the worst-case scenario for Mobile would be a hit anywhere on the south coast of Mobile County, Dauphin Island up to the MS/AL line.

[smashmode]

Looks like a direct hit on mobile.

Lets pray that the storm doesnt go west of the city..otherwise..wouldnt that give the strongest winds to the city itself?

Yep... the worst-case scenario for Mobile would be a hit anywhere on the south coast of Mobile County, Dauphin Island up to the MS/AL line.

One of the professional forecastes says a dauphin/mobile landfall.

What is the sea level of mobile? I earth googled it earlier..looks pretty low.?

[Ixolib]

everybody in the GOM should be prepared.

Well, certainly all GOMERS in the "warned" areas.

My point was Come June 1rst people should be prepared and Everyone knows how unpredictable TS cyclones can sometimes be. Once this thing entered the GOM residents along the whole GOM should have been watching and preparing to take action if it was deemed necessary. Remember Elena

Ah yes, good old Elena!! She was, without a doubt, the strangest storm I ever "tried" to prepare for!!

And yes, I agree with your viewpoint on awareness. It simply AMAZES me how folks can live their daily lives in these storm-prone areas and yet have little knowledge of the possibilities that exist every summer.

[Rainband]

I know. Sacry huh, I have actually talked to people that didn't know the difference between a Hurricane and a Tornado

[smashmode]

I know. Sacry huh, I have actually talked to people that didn't know the difference between a Hurricane and a Tornado

a cat 4 at pensacola would suck alot of ass..since any trees etc..that didnt go down last year..would definately go down this year.

[mtm4319]

Looks like a direct hit on mobile.

Lets pray that the storm doesnt go west of the city..otherwise..wouldnt that give the strongest winds to the city itself?

Yep... the worst-case scenario for Mobile would be a hit anywhere on the south coast of Mobile County, Dauphin Island up to the MS/AL line.

One of the professional forecastes says a dauphin/mobile landfall.

What is the sea level of mobile? I earth googled it earlier..looks pretty low.?

Downtown is 3-10 feet above sea level.

[smashmode]

3-10 feet above sea level.

cat 3-4 how tall is the storm surge? 7-10 feet?

and if it coincides with high tide..

Yuck.

I notice you are from mobile..what are your plans?

[BigO]

I'm just wondering if I ought to go hang the shutters and clear the deck here in metro NOLA. I got them out of the shed and set them under the windows in case it wobbled overnight last night, but NHC has been so steadfast in their landfall point and so accurate in the prediction so far that I really didn't worry too much.

I was in the grocery earlier and there were neither crowds nor shortages of anything. I have enough water to get through and certainly enough canned food and baked a meatloaf and ham just in case we lost power.

Everybody seems very typically NOLA about it...the City That Care FOrgot.

[weatherwindow]

"the city that care forgot"....first time i had ever heard that...very apropos...hopefully dennis will make the nnw turn and not make an unexpected visit to the crescent city(fingers crossed).............rich

[gatorcane]

taking a definite NNW jog over lately...

[gatorcane]

it's almost due N on the last frame

[Steve]

The frames are irrelevant. I know you realize this. The storm has been stair stepping like a stretched out phone cord. What it should do is head a hair more north before bouncing back the other way and correcting back to a NW motion. In the long run (not that long anymore I guess), the stairs will become more vertical signaling a decrease in the advance west corresponding with an increase in the advance north. Once the current pattern breaks, we'll have a pretty fair idea of where landfall is going to be. I know most of us have it zeroed down in our own heads, but that should offer the most proof of how many more wobbles are in store before landfall.

Steve

[mtm4319]

I notice you are from mobile..what are your plans?

I'm 15 miles west of downtown (35 miles north of Dauphin Island), so I'm not really in Mobile... but no one would know where I was if I said Semmes. Our family decided last night to stay... just hope it wasn't a mistake.

it's almost due N on the last frame

LOL... whenever I see a post from you, I know that the storm is going more NNW.

[gatorcane]

no I posted a WNW movement up above too....but this is the most N it has gone...the turn may just be slowly starting now....watch out FL panhandle

[mahicks]

I notice you are from mobile..what are your plans?

I'm 15 miles west of downtown (35 miles north of Dauphin Island), so I'm not really in Mobile... but no one would know where I was if I said Semmes. Our family decided last night to stay... just hope it wasn't a mistake.

it's almost due N on the last frame

LOL... whenever I see a post from you, I know that the storm is going more NNW.

Being from "LA" I know where Semmes is....

You guys should be cool from the surge, regardless of where it hits...But please play it safe, a cat 4 or 5 would still pound the you know what out of you with wind and rain..