DENNIS IS BOMBING OUT

[Wthrman13]

Remember that the winds usually lag behind the pressure drops. Dennis isn't done yet I'm afraid.

There's actually a positive feedback mechanism, and it's not clear which one precedes the other (wind speed increase vs. pressure drop). There's a way of looking at it where the wind speed increase actually *precedes* the pressure drop by considering that as the winds increase, it roughens the sea surface up more, which causes a greater transfer of moisture from the ocean surface, which causes more latent heat release as the air ascends in the center of the hurricane, which intensifies the warm core, which causes the central pressure to drop. The pressure drop in turn causes the winds to increase, and the cycle continues...

[wxwatcher91]

yeah I've heard that theory before...

sounds reasonable enough...

[wxwatcher91]

Dennis has lost a lot of it's strong convection around the eye... either it's simply tightening up, or weakening, or he's going through an EWRC

[abajan]

rapid deepening here guys is 24mb in 24 hours so this thing is so incredible to me you would not believe. I have weathertap hi res of the eye wall which I can't post unless you have weathetap but bugger me - this one is gonna be very serious. Can anyone see anything that might inhibit strengthining?

The NHC definition of rapid deepening is 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb in 24 hours. I won't further my discussion of the vagueness of the definition, because I think the current phase is more like explosive deepening, rather than rapid.

I agree. It's unbelievable how impressive the satellite images have become during just the last couple of hours. IMO, it's going to hit the coast as a strong Cat 4.

[Innotech]

Dennis has lost a lot of it's strong convection around the eye... either it's simply tightening up, or weakening, or he's going through an EWRC

its tightening up and intensifying rapidly is what its doing now. Its forming a round intense CDO and realigning up its layers.

[Hurrilurker]

Dennis has lost a lot of it's strong convection around the eye... either it's simply tightening up, or weakening, or he's going through an EWRC

I think it's tightening up based on the animation of the last few hours. The intense convection is now wrapped more evenly around the core, more symmetrical, and the area of moderate convection ("orange" on IR) has remained the same. When Dennis went from Cat. 2 to Cat. 4 before, a similar thing happened. A perfectly-round, solid red dot around a clear eye is not what you want to see.

[soonertwister]

Max Mayfield was on CNN about 15-20 minutes ago, and said Dennis would be forecast to be a category 4 hurricane before landfall.

[WaryEye]

I usually just lurk here, as I am learning as much about hurricanes as possible since they peaked my interest last year.... however, I had to post and say that as a neutral observer in Ohio, I have a really bad feeling about this storm, no matter where it comes ashore. I am especially concerned that there is no time left to evacuate people properly.

[wxwatcher91]

I really think it's going through an EWRC ... the latest frame has strong convection very very sparce

[canegrl04]

I feel bad for the folks from Pensacola to Mississippi.Especially MISS. Must be shades of Camille for them

[EASTONPA]

good luck folks in MS and LA: hope storm takes turn for the better (i.e., weakens); my brother lost his home to in P Charlotte Florida to Charlie last summer; I'm praying that that no one is hurt and damage is minimal. If you're on this board obviously you're tuned into the latest warnings etc; make sure to alert folks who may not be as up to date on the last coordinates and track of this storm (remember Charlie took a last minute hook into coast last summer, south of predicted track)


EASTONPA (formerly WESTCHESTERPA, but moved recently)

[jwayne]

latest water vapor sat pic shows eye almost void of moisture. Dennis is maxing out.