Saving grace?

[baitism]

Well the dry air seems to be having some effect. The cloud tops are warming.

[LCfromFL]

Annular hurricanes almost look like tires or doughnuts - usually having a large eye and nearly a perfectly round appearance.

[logybogy]

I think people are getting confused. Ignore the feeder bands on the outside. Focus on the donut. It's a perfect symmetrical annular donut and those cloudtops are a perfect ring of deep red.

The outside feederbands are irrelevent. And the core donut becoming detached from it is actually a very bad sign. It's a telltale sign of an annular hurricane and those are typically only seen in Cat 5's.

[sweetpea]

I think people are getting confused. Ignore the feeder bands on the outside. Focus on the donut. It's a perfect symmetrical annular donut and those cloudtops are a perfect ring of deep red.

The outside feederbands are irrelevent. And the core donut becoming detached from it is actually a very bad sign. It's a telltale sign of an annular hurricane and those are typically only seen in Cat 5's.

Are you seeing this in the infrared or visible loop?

[Droop12]

Man I wish this stuff was coming towards you so you'd stop throwing out these doomsday scenarios. Sure he is strengthing rapidly, that was almost a given. Thing is, they cant sustain that rapid intensification for more then 12 hours.

[jkt21787]

If this indeed becoming annular, you can throw out the dry air. This shows a round eye and perfectly dount shaped CDO, both signs of an annular.

Annulars don't have EWRCs either.

[jkt21787]

Man I wish this stuff was coming towards you so you'd stop throwing out these doomsday scenarios. Sure he is strengthing rapidly, that was almost a given. Thing is, they cant sustain that rapid intensification for more then 12 hours.

You must understand that if this is becoming Annular the strength will be sustained much longer.

[logybogy]

Perfect deep red donut surrounding the eye. The rest of it is irrelevent. Focus on the donut.

[Air Force Met]

I believe the warming cloud tops can be explained by this:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

The heat content is lower in this area.

I also think it is a good thing is is bombing out now. If it is an ERC...then it is likely it will be on the downside of it when it comes inland. If it was to wait until later tonight or tomorrow morning to do this...then it would be coming in at peak. Time will tell for that...but the circulation is large and this will help it....as it draws in a lot of moist air.

It also appears to be wobbling more to the N over the last hour or so...should wobble back to the NW though in the next hour. What that does say is the ridge is weaker now...and every more northerly movement means less a problem for MS....but more of a problem for the panhandle.

[gatorcane]

Rememeber Ivan started weakening about 6 hours before landfall, now we are about 22-23 hours out. There is time still.

[logybogy]

I don't understand why people care if the outside feeder band cloudtops are warming.

The CDO core of the hurricane is solid reds.

[Normandy]

Ivan choked up some dry air and only partially recovered because he hit an eddy....this situation is a little different imo.

[Air Force Met]

I don't understand why people care if the outside feeder band cloudtops are warming.

The CDO core of the hurricane is solid reds.

The more "reds"...the more latent heat release...the more latent heat release...the faster the pressure drops. Warming clouds tops...even on the edge...means less latent heat is being released so it won't go as nuts as it could with the pressure drops. The reason for that warming is less heat content.

So...even if the CDO (and it is small...which means even less latent heat release) is solid...it's still better if the surrounding tops warm...it will cut down on the deepening some.

That's why people care. As a met...it actually means something to me to see the tops warming.