Dennis forecast #8: Category 4 at landfall. Very dangerous

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE DENNIS
NJN WEATHER CENTER
640 PM SAT JULY 9TH 2005

Hurricane Dennis is using the water in the Eastern GOM to potentially bomb out 1 more time. This is making the beginning of what could be a catastrophic scenario for extreme Eastern Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle.

Dennis at 6pm was a Cat 3 with winds of 115 mph but pressures have been dropping dramatically. This storm has been moving NW to WNW for quite a while. It looks like the Florida Panhandle has it eyes in the bulls eye yet again.

Dennis is in a very favorable environment, currently going through sections of the GOM that were not churned up by Cindy. This may allow Dennis to become a Category 4 and depending on how quickly he can organize.. possibly borderline Cat 5. But I sure as heck hope that will not occur.

Another Interesting note. If you are on the Northern side of the storm. Dennis will give you winds higher than 115. Here's why..? If Dennis is moving say NW at 17 for example. The northern side gets the winds in the rain bands, the eye, the eyewall, plus with the addition of the storms' movement.. It would add extra winds. Thus winds in Dennis northern side would then by example possibly be as high as 132.

Dennis is definitely becoming much better organized after Cuba practically raked him while he was there. Dropping him down to as low as 90 mph.. This dramatic drop though helped Central and South Florida, because even with the reports of wind damage, the rain bands were not as dangerous and hefty as they could have been.

Our landfall forecast still calls for a landfall in the Panhandle.. Just to the East of the Pensacola area. We will also forecast Dennis to be a Category 4.

Here's my experimental 5 day outlook on Dennis:
Today: Becoming better organized, churning up the GOM. Max Winds: 130 mph
Sunday: Making landfall to the East of Pensacola. Max Winds: 150 mph
Monday: Weakening but raining over Alabama and Mississippi. Max Winds: 65 mph
Tuesday: Passing through Louisville, and maybe Frankfurt. Max Winds: 45 mph {extra tropical}
Wednesday: Maybe Dennis will check out an Indians or Reds game. Max Winds: 30 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Josephine96]

I guess no one likes commenting on my stuff anymore lol

[Brent]

Nice...

How far east of Pensacola??? Fort Walton Beach? Destin? Panama City?? That's extremely helpful.

[Radar]

I like commenting on your posts... It is just there is so many to comment on... So many posts so little time... Thank you for your forecast unfortunately I think you have the scenario pegged pretty closely...

Stay Safe

[Josephine96]

LOL.. sorry for my lack of a locale.. My guess would be Panama City.. Although.. Please don't shoot me if ya think that's too far lol

[Air Force Met]

One thing to correct here...you don't add the forward motion to the winds and get a higher wind. IF it's 115...that's 115 with the foreward motion factored in. Windspeed is windspeed. If you are standing there and you have a Kestrel 4000 in your hand...and the NHC says max winds are 60 mph and the storm is moving north at 20...you are not going to get 80 mph on your instrument...you are going to get 60.

Adding the forward motion to the max wind is an old wive's tale...

[Josephine96]

Well then the met that told me that old wives' tale was wrong lol..

[Air Force Met]

Well then the met that told me that old wives' tale was wrong lol..

Yes...they were wrong. Think about it for a second...the maximum sustained winds are the maximum observed winds and that is what is on the advisory. Now...if you added foreward motion to the max wind...then the new max wind would be 80 instead of 60...right? Then 60 would NOT be the maximum observed (sustained) wind...would it...it would be 80. So...why would you say max winds are 60 when they really are 80?

Bottom line...if max winds are 60...and you get in the strongest part of the east side...you may get 60. If the storm is moving at 50...you will still get 60...because that is the max observed wind.

Now...if that storm was to STOP in its tracks...then the max observed wind would not be 60...because now the motion is stopped. It would be reduced by the lack of foreward motion. OF course...big storms moving at 20 don't just stop.