NNW track has started.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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drudd1
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You guys are going to make yourselves crazy!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
>>Id be willing to bet that Dennis takes a westerly or wnw jog before landfall, and another north jog....strong hurricanes dont move in straight lines.
Indeed. Check Tampa radar. :45 sat show a return to NW followed by a little push over. Like I said earlier for Dennis, instead of stairsteps, think of a stretched out phone cord in 2-D. I'd bet there are more of both moves prior to landfall. The north moves should become a little more dominant though.
Steve
Indeed. Check Tampa radar. :45 sat show a return to NW followed by a little push over. Like I said earlier for Dennis, instead of stairsteps, think of a stretched out phone cord in 2-D. I'd bet there are more of both moves prior to landfall. The north moves should become a little more dominant though.
Steve
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Steve wrote:>>Id be willing to bet that Dennis takes a westerly or wnw jog before landfall, and another north jog....strong hurricanes dont move in straight lines.
Indeed. Check Tampa radar. :45 sat show a return to NW followed by a little push over. Like I said earlier for Dennis, instead of stairsteps, think of a stretched out phone cord in 2-D. I'd bet there are more of both moves prior to landfall. The north moves should become a little more dominant though.
Steve
Yeah, the Northerly turn folks didn't point that out, strange.
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HurriCat
Earlier, someone posted that "They want it to hit Florida". Uh, who is "They"?
Anyways, I'm noticing that the televised coverage I see here in Orlando is not showing the factors that have kept this critter from biting on us. In past events, we'd see elaborate sat-pictures and charts, all explained as to why this front or that was doing this or that to the storm. Now, we're getting the cartoon-cone with windspeed captions, and also the local whirly-twirly radar stuff.
I figure that maybe they don't want us all FREAKIN' OUT
as we watch some ridge or something - worrying over it leaving our you-know-whats 
hanging out once again.
I like all of the back and forth stuff here. One; this isn't the official source for info, so we can disagree if we like, and Two; it's a bit of fun in an otherwise gloomy situation. And isn't it all so much better when the battles are observation-based and not personal attacks!
Anyways, I'm noticing that the televised coverage I see here in Orlando is not showing the factors that have kept this critter from biting on us. In past events, we'd see elaborate sat-pictures and charts, all explained as to why this front or that was doing this or that to the storm. Now, we're getting the cartoon-cone with windspeed captions, and also the local whirly-twirly radar stuff.
I figure that maybe they don't want us all FREAKIN' OUT
as we watch some ridge or something - worrying over it leaving our you-know-whats hanging out once again.
I like all of the back and forth stuff here. One; this isn't the official source for info, so we can disagree if we like, and Two; it's a bit of fun in an otherwise gloomy situation. And isn't it all so much better when the battles are observation-based and not personal attacks!
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I busted on this one badly. I thought the ridge was too thin and would buckle, bringing Dennis close to the Florida west coast. Never happened. It's hard to gauge the strength of a ridge from a satellite picture. I also thought climatology would not support above weak category 3.
I'll go with NHC but suggest a north hook closer to Dean4Storms.
Worst house shakes yet (we are on pilings)!
I'll go with NHC but suggest a north hook closer to Dean4Storms.
Worst house shakes yet (we are on pilings)!
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LAwxrgal
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Brent wrote:Sanibel wrote:I also thought climatology would not support above weak category 3.
It doesn't...
Neither should be following the D name on July 9th... regardless of intensity.
Brent, exactly. Not only shouldn't there be a D storm on July 9, but not one this intense. But then again this year doesnt seem to be following any previous guidance.
I think the E storm last year formed sometime in August...
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
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Brent
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LAwxrgal wrote:Brent wrote:Sanibel wrote:I also thought climatology would not support above weak category 3.
It doesn't...
Neither should be following the D name on July 9th... regardless of intensity.
Brent, exactly. Not only shouldn't there be a D storm on July 9, but not one this intense. But then again this year doesnt seem to be following any previous guidance.
I think the E storm last year formed sometime in August...
August 14th.
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#neversummer
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SkeetoBite
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Thanks for the graphic SkeetoBite.
I'm currently within the blue circle here west of Tampa.
Still have power but its pretty breezy.
The hurricane force winds extend further east from the center then they do west.
Even 75 miles east of the eventual landfall you will probably see hurricane force gusts.
Important to focus on the probability cone not just the landfall point when planning.
I'm currently within the blue circle here west of Tampa.
Still have power but its pretty breezy.
The hurricane force winds extend further east from the center then they do west.
Even 75 miles east of the eventual landfall you will probably see hurricane force gusts.
Important to focus on the probability cone not just the landfall point when planning.
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