this be considered a "SUPERCANE"?
NWHHC Levels of Alert
Below, are the types of alerts that the Northwest Hemisphere Hurricane Center will recommend when a tropical cyclone is threatening land. There are seven levels of alert.
These are not official watches and warnings. NWHHC does not issue the official watches and warnings. Instead, we recommend watches and warnings
Level 1: Tropical Storm Warning: NWHHC will recommend this about 12-15 hours prior to landfall. This will be recommended when a tropical storm is expected to make landfall.
Level 2: Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch: NWHHC will recommend a level 2 alert about 12-15 hours prior to landfall. This alert will be recommended when a system is expected to make landfall as a tropical storm, but has an outside chance at becoming a hurricane before landfall.
Level 3: Hurricane Watch: NWHHC will recommend this alert at least 30 hours prior to expected landfall. A hurricane watch will be recommended when a tropical is expected to make landfall within 30 hours (more lead time will be given as the system increases in intensity), or when a hurricane is expected to make landfall at a different coastal location, but could affect the watch area if the track unexpectedly changes.
Level 4: Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning: NWHHC will recommend this level of alert at least 20 hours prior to expected landfall. This is different from a level 2 alert because this is recommended when a hurricane is expected to make landfall in another coastal location, though close enough to bring tropical storm conditions. In addition, residents under this level of alert should prepare for a hurricane warning if the hurricane takes the slightest wobble. A Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning may also be recommended for a tropical storm which has a greater than 50/50 chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall.
Level 5: Hurricane Warning: NWHHC will recommend a hurricane warning at least 20 hours prior to landfall (barring any last minute unexpected change in intensity of a tropical storm, forcing a late warning). This is issued when winds of greater than 65KT or tides greater than 7 feet are expected. Residents should consider evacuations and complete all preparations, once a warning is recommended.
Level 6: Hurricane Warning/Super Hurricane Watch: This is recommended at the same time as a hurricane warning. This has three different meanings. The first is that a category five storm is threatening a coastal location and NWHHC is waiting to narrow down the landfall location before recommending a more urgent warning. The second is that a category five storm is expected to make landfall in another location; however, a change in intensity will bring the category 5 conditions to the location. The third is for a major hurricane which has an outside chance at becoming a category 5 storm prior to landfall. In the event that this alert is recommended, residents need to prepare for massive evacuations and immediately finish all storm preparations.
Level 7: Super Hurricane Warning: This is the highest level of alert that NWHHC can recommend. NWHHC will recommend this alert at least 12-15 hours prior to landfall (this could be later if a level 6 alert has to be upgraded due to last minute intensification). This is recommended for a very specific area, such as a specific city or a county. NWHHC will only recommend this alert once it has been determined where category 5 conditions are expected. In the event that this alert is recommended, residents should immediately seek shelter, or leave if roads are not congested.
If Dennis ramps up and continues to bomb will
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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wxcrazytwo
Hurricane Linda
"History In The Making"
Maps, Graphics, WWW, Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From CASI HQ Friday September 12, 1997 | By Meteorologist J. Ferrell | Central Atlantic Storm Investigators' Tropical Pages
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update Sun. 12pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Normally, living in the Eastern US, I don't have the time or energy to also deal with Pacific Storms. But today I felt compelled to do this page in tribute to Hurricane Linda, the strongest hurricane ever in the Eastern Pacific Basin.
So What's The Deal With Linda?
Linda formed as a tropical depression the morning of Tuesday, September 9, 1997, and became a weak Tropical Storm early Wednesday Morning. There had been plenty of storms in the eastern pacific this year, and nothing was special about Linda when she formed out of clusters of thunderstorms west of Mexico.
By Thursday winds had increased to an amazing 160knots (185 MPH) sustained, estimated gusts at an unbelievable 220MPH. Pressure had dropped from 1006mb to 900mb (26.58"Hg).
She began on a North/Northwestward track, as do most storms which form where she did.
Why a hurricane this big? El Nino may be to blame. It may be responsible for causing above normal ocean temperatures in the eastern pacific which have fed the storm.
On Thursday people started getting worried, especially folks living in Baja and even California. Postings sprouted up on the newsgroups, the Weather Channel began to talk it up, and arguments were made on whether or not the storm would affect Southern California and in what form.
What do we know about the island that Linda hit?
Friday afternoon Hurricane Linda likely devestated the island of Socorro, which was directly in the path of the worst part of the eyewall. What do we know about Socorro Island?
It is a volcano.
"10 or 12 people live there" - The Weather Channel
It's a favorite for divers because of its unspoiled coast.
It is owned by Mexico.
Find out more by doing a Search for Socorro Island.
There is an official weather reporting station there, Synopic Code 76723: ISLA SOCORRO.
See below for the obs that I have obtained, or
See here for graphs of data
The last observation from the island was of a 35mph sustained wind, sharp pressure fall, and low visibility in a thunderstorm Friday morning.
Last 48 hours of observations from Socorro:
ISLA SOCORRO
TIME T DP RH 24H 24L WIND PRS PCPN (0.01 in) CLD VIS WX
76723 15z11 83 79 84 86 79 0008 005 6HR 0 24H 3 8/8 3
76723 21z11 78 74 89 *** *** 0116 003 6HR 8 24H**** 8/8 3 T
76723 00z12 78 74 89 83 75 0110 002 6HR 12 24H 10 8/8 3 T
76723 03z12 80 77 89 *** *** 0219 001 6HR 126 24H 23 8/8 1/16 T
76723 15z12 78 74 89 83 74 0033 986 6HR 142 24H 98 1/8 1/16 T
Will Linda hit California?
Like any weather forecast, there is much disagreement. As of tonight, Friday, September 12, there is a strong upper level trough which may carry the storm or remnants of it into the southern California area in a few days. The Weather Channel has acknowleged that there is a chance that Linda could reach California while a minimal hurricane. The NWS in California is promising that there will be no damage and no loss of life. We hope they are not underreacting. Here's their statement:
FPUS3 KLAX 121615
SFDLAX STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 1997
NOTICE TO MEDIA...THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE LINDA MAY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIA HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TRUE! ANY HURRICANE THAT APPROACHES THE SOUTHLAND WILL WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL HERE. WHILE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL BE HIGH SURF AND SEAS AS WELL. THIS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
I STRESS AGAIN...THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH SURF AND SEAS. BE RESPONSIBLE...PLEASE DO NOT OVERDRAMATIZE THIS THREAT. A LOT OF ALARMED PEOPLE ARE CALLING THIS OFFICE.
Has a tropical system ever hit California?
Several remnants of tropical systems have likely hit California over the years; the most recent being the remnants of Ignacio which moved over the area last month.
In 1939, a Tropical Storm moved into Southern California, killing 45 people (See Weather Channel Graphic).
How does Linda compare to The Worst Hurricanes Ever?
Linda is not the most powerful hurricane ever in the world. She is, however, the most powerful hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Since Typhoons (what Hurricanes are called in the western Pacific) have much more water to work with they often grow very strong. If nothing else Linda should be noted for forming so quickly in such a tight area. The most powerful hurricane in the world was Typhoon Tip, in the Western Pacific. I will quote from the Weather FAQ:
***************************************************************************
Subject: 6) Which is the most intense tropical cyclone on record?
Typhoon Tip in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on 12 October 1979 was measured to have a central pressure of 870 mb and estimated surface sustained winds of 85 m/s (165 kt/190mph) (Dunnavan and Diercks 1980). Typhoon Nancy on 12 September, 1961 is listed in the best track data for the Northwest Pacific region as having an estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 kt with a central pressure of 888 mb. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong and that the 185 kt (and numerous 160 kt to 180 kt reports) is somewhat too high.
Note that Hurricane Gilbert's estimated 888 mb lowest pressure in mid- September 1988 is the most intense [as measured by lowest sea level pressure] for the Atlantic basin (Willoughby et al 1989), it is almost 20 mb weaker (higher) than the above Typhoon Tip of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
While the central pressures for the Northwest Pacific typhoons are the lowest globally, the North Atlantic hurricanes have provided sustained wind speeds possibly comparable to the Northwest Pacific. From the best track database, both Hurricane Camille (1969) and Hurricane Allen (1980) have winds that are estimated to be 165 kt. Measurements of such winds are inherently going to be suspect as instruments often are completely destroyed or damaged at these speeds.
***************************************************************************
HURRICANE SUSTWIND PRESSURE
LINDA
(8PM PDT 9/12) 185 mph 900 mb
TIP (1979) 190 mph 870 mb
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/1997/linda/
"History In The Making"
Maps, Graphics, WWW, Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From CASI HQ Friday September 12, 1997 | By Meteorologist J. Ferrell | Central Atlantic Storm Investigators' Tropical Pages
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update Sun. 12pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Normally, living in the Eastern US, I don't have the time or energy to also deal with Pacific Storms. But today I felt compelled to do this page in tribute to Hurricane Linda, the strongest hurricane ever in the Eastern Pacific Basin.
So What's The Deal With Linda?
Linda formed as a tropical depression the morning of Tuesday, September 9, 1997, and became a weak Tropical Storm early Wednesday Morning. There had been plenty of storms in the eastern pacific this year, and nothing was special about Linda when she formed out of clusters of thunderstorms west of Mexico.
By Thursday winds had increased to an amazing 160knots (185 MPH) sustained, estimated gusts at an unbelievable 220MPH. Pressure had dropped from 1006mb to 900mb (26.58"Hg).
She began on a North/Northwestward track, as do most storms which form where she did.
Why a hurricane this big? El Nino may be to blame. It may be responsible for causing above normal ocean temperatures in the eastern pacific which have fed the storm.
On Thursday people started getting worried, especially folks living in Baja and even California. Postings sprouted up on the newsgroups, the Weather Channel began to talk it up, and arguments were made on whether or not the storm would affect Southern California and in what form.
What do we know about the island that Linda hit?
Friday afternoon Hurricane Linda likely devestated the island of Socorro, which was directly in the path of the worst part of the eyewall. What do we know about Socorro Island?
It is a volcano.
"10 or 12 people live there" - The Weather Channel
It's a favorite for divers because of its unspoiled coast.
It is owned by Mexico.
Find out more by doing a Search for Socorro Island.
There is an official weather reporting station there, Synopic Code 76723: ISLA SOCORRO.
See below for the obs that I have obtained, or
See here for graphs of data
The last observation from the island was of a 35mph sustained wind, sharp pressure fall, and low visibility in a thunderstorm Friday morning.
Last 48 hours of observations from Socorro:
ISLA SOCORRO
TIME T DP RH 24H 24L WIND PRS PCPN (0.01 in) CLD VIS WX
76723 15z11 83 79 84 86 79 0008 005 6HR 0 24H 3 8/8 3
76723 21z11 78 74 89 *** *** 0116 003 6HR 8 24H**** 8/8 3 T
76723 00z12 78 74 89 83 75 0110 002 6HR 12 24H 10 8/8 3 T
76723 03z12 80 77 89 *** *** 0219 001 6HR 126 24H 23 8/8 1/16 T
76723 15z12 78 74 89 83 74 0033 986 6HR 142 24H 98 1/8 1/16 T
Will Linda hit California?
Like any weather forecast, there is much disagreement. As of tonight, Friday, September 12, there is a strong upper level trough which may carry the storm or remnants of it into the southern California area in a few days. The Weather Channel has acknowleged that there is a chance that Linda could reach California while a minimal hurricane. The NWS in California is promising that there will be no damage and no loss of life. We hope they are not underreacting. Here's their statement:
FPUS3 KLAX 121615
SFDLAX STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 1997
NOTICE TO MEDIA...THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE LINDA MAY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIA HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TRUE! ANY HURRICANE THAT APPROACHES THE SOUTHLAND WILL WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL HERE. WHILE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL BE HIGH SURF AND SEAS AS WELL. THIS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
I STRESS AGAIN...THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH SURF AND SEAS. BE RESPONSIBLE...PLEASE DO NOT OVERDRAMATIZE THIS THREAT. A LOT OF ALARMED PEOPLE ARE CALLING THIS OFFICE.
Has a tropical system ever hit California?
Several remnants of tropical systems have likely hit California over the years; the most recent being the remnants of Ignacio which moved over the area last month.
In 1939, a Tropical Storm moved into Southern California, killing 45 people (See Weather Channel Graphic).
How does Linda compare to The Worst Hurricanes Ever?
Linda is not the most powerful hurricane ever in the world. She is, however, the most powerful hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Since Typhoons (what Hurricanes are called in the western Pacific) have much more water to work with they often grow very strong. If nothing else Linda should be noted for forming so quickly in such a tight area. The most powerful hurricane in the world was Typhoon Tip, in the Western Pacific. I will quote from the Weather FAQ:
***************************************************************************
Subject: 6) Which is the most intense tropical cyclone on record?
Typhoon Tip in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on 12 October 1979 was measured to have a central pressure of 870 mb and estimated surface sustained winds of 85 m/s (165 kt/190mph) (Dunnavan and Diercks 1980). Typhoon Nancy on 12 September, 1961 is listed in the best track data for the Northwest Pacific region as having an estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 kt with a central pressure of 888 mb. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong and that the 185 kt (and numerous 160 kt to 180 kt reports) is somewhat too high.
Note that Hurricane Gilbert's estimated 888 mb lowest pressure in mid- September 1988 is the most intense [as measured by lowest sea level pressure] for the Atlantic basin (Willoughby et al 1989), it is almost 20 mb weaker (higher) than the above Typhoon Tip of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
While the central pressures for the Northwest Pacific typhoons are the lowest globally, the North Atlantic hurricanes have provided sustained wind speeds possibly comparable to the Northwest Pacific. From the best track database, both Hurricane Camille (1969) and Hurricane Allen (1980) have winds that are estimated to be 165 kt. Measurements of such winds are inherently going to be suspect as instruments often are completely destroyed or damaged at these speeds.
***************************************************************************
HURRICANE SUSTWIND PRESSURE
LINDA
(8PM PDT 9/12) 185 mph 900 mb
TIP (1979) 190 mph 870 mb
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/1997/linda/
Last edited by wxcrazytwo on Sat Jul 09, 2005 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wxcrazytwo
-
wxcrazytwo
I just listened to Dr. Jeff Masters on NHSWX streaming audio, and he feels Dennis will top out at about 145-150, then lose maybe 5 mph or so before landfalling around Pensacola. So, he does not feel it will reach Cat 5.
He expects an ERC within the next hour, and then intensification to continue for 6 hours or so and then level out. Cooler temps in Gulf between current and landfall should prevent continued strengthening beyond that point. Or so he reasons.
He expects an ERC within the next hour, and then intensification to continue for 6 hours or so and then level out. Cooler temps in Gulf between current and landfall should prevent continued strengthening beyond that point. Or so he reasons.
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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jkt21787 wrote:In case you saw my post I'm sorry wrong site. Site to ignore is *MWHC!
Midwest Hurricane Center.
Sorry NWHHC!
I got confused... Greatone is Midwest Hurricane Center and this is NORTHwest. I got suspicious and then went to the site and realized it's Derek Ortt's site.
He's still just recommending hurricane warnings though, so not a supercane yet. I would imagine that's reserved for Cat 5's only.
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wlfpack81
- Professional-Met
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jkt21787 wrote:In case you saw my post I'm sorry wrong site. Site to ignore is *MWHC!
Midwest Hurricane Center.
Sorry NWHHC!
Hey jkt..I made the same mistake too. Sorry NWHHC and apologizes to Derek Ortt. It is indeed the MWHC you want to ignore. Derek Ortt is a part of the NWHHC and they do have very good products in relation to tropical systems and forecasting.
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hurricanefloyd5
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hurricanefloyd5
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